Betting tips from AI for Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson, 12 October 2025.

Market snapshot: Deiveson Figueiredo at 3.28, Montel Jackson at 1.36, Draw at 70.00. Pricing that wide says the market expects Jackson to control range and win minutes, but it likely underrates Figueiredo’s finishing craft and big-moment equity at bantamweight. For a $1 stab aimed at long-term profit, I’m siding with the undervalued ex-champion.

Figueiredo is a proven A-level winner with championship experience, elite submission threats (especially his vice-grip guillotine and back takes), and explosive counters. The move to 135 has helped his durability and output; he beat seasoned opposition after leaving flyweight, showing his power and grappling translate against bigger men. He doesn’t need volume to swing rounds—he needs moments, and he creates them reliably.

Jackson is a long, patient southpaw with a sharp jab and a crushing straight left. He’s composed, accurate, and physically imposing for the division. His takedown defense has improved, and he punishes sloppy entries with frames, knees, and counters. The question isn’t whether Jackson is good—he is—but how he fares when an elite scrambler forces layered grappling exchanges and opportunistic front-headlocks.

The key tactical hinges: Figueiredo chopping the lead leg to slow Jackson’s stance switches, crashing the pocket behind overhands, and turning cage clinches into snap-downs where his guillotine and back exposure games flourish. Jackson keeps range, numbers, and balance; Figueiredo hunts high-leverage spots—front headlocks, scrambles off caught kicks, and sudden momentum swings.

Risks on the dog: size and length. Jackson can bank rounds if he dictates distance, touching Figueiredo with the jab and body work while denying clean entries. At 37–38, Figueiredo’s margin is smaller than in his flyweight prime. If the fight is slow and clean, the optics favor Jackson.

But prices matter. Implied probability on 3.28 is roughly 30–31%, while 1.36 suggests about 73%. Given Figueiredo’s finishing upside and knack for swinging close rounds, I project him closer to 38–42%. At 40%, a $1 bet has positive expectation: 0.40 × 2.28 − 0.60 × 1 ≈ +0.31 expected return. That’s a meaningful edge.

The draw at 70.00 remains a lottery ticket in three-round MMA; point deductions or rare 28–28s happen, but not often enough to justify a main play when the dog ML is mispriced.

Practical plan: take Figueiredo moneyline at 3.28. I’d bet down to around +200; under +190, the edge thins. If you’re line-shopping, any drift toward +240 sweetens it. Method-of-victory sprinkles (submission) make narrative sense, but the cleanest EV is the ML given round-swinging power and grappling.

Bottom line: Jackson’s size and range tools are real, but the number overstates the gap in class. The ex-champ’s opportunism, squeeze, and big-moment creation make him the sharper $1 shot at current odds.

This bantamweight clash presents a classic stylistic puzzle: the explosive power and submission grappling of a former champion against the overwhelming physical tools of a rising contender. Deiveson Figueiredo, the former flyweight king, has successfully transitioned to 135 lbs, bringing his 'God of War' mentality and fight-ending power with him. His wins over Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt proved his lethality remains intact in a heavier division. Figueiredo is a master of pressure, constantly stalking his opponents to land devastating hooks and uppercuts. On the mat, his jiu-jitsu is world-class, with a guillotine choke that serves as a potent deterrent against wrestlers.

However, Montel 'Quik' Jackson is arguably the worst possible matchup for Figueiredo from a physical standpoint. Jackson is a colossal bantamweight, boasting a five-inch height and a staggering 7.5-inch reach advantage. This disparity will be the central theme of the fight. Jackson can operate from a safe distance, using his long jab and kicks to score points and frustrate the shorter Figueiredo, who will be forced to take risks to close the distance. More importantly, Jackson is a dominant wrestler with suffocating top control. His most logical and likely path to victory is to weather any early storms, use his size to clinch, and drag the fight to the canvas.

While Figueiredo's power gives him a puncher's chance and makes his 3.28 odds tempting for value seekers, the probabilities heavily favor Jackson. The former champion's cardio has been a question mark in the past, and wrestling with a much larger, stronger opponent for 15 minutes is an exhausting endeavor. Jackson has demonstrated the fight IQ to stick to a game plan, and his path to victory is far clearer and more reliable. He can win this fight by simply being the bigger, stronger man and imposing his wrestling game.

Expect Jackson to use his length to keep the fight at his preferred range in the opening minutes before inevitably securing takedowns. From top position, he will look to control Figueiredo, land ground-and-pound, and neutralize the Brazilian's submission attempts. This strategy should be enough to grind out a convincing decision victory or even find a late stoppage. The 1.36 line on Jackson is steep, but it accurately reflects the significant stylistic and physical advantages he holds in this contest.

This bantamweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and rising contender Montel Jackson. The odds heavily favor Jackson at 1.36, while Figueiredo sits as a significant underdog at 3.28, creating an intriguing betting scenario.

Figueiredo's move up to bantamweight has been a calculated decision to revitalize his career after losing his flyweight title. The Brazilian brings devastating knockout power, exceptional submission skills, and championship-level experience. His aggressive striking style and ability to finish fights in spectacular fashion make him dangerous against any opponent. However, the weight cut struggles that plagued him at flyweight may actually benefit his performance at 135 pounds, where he should feel more natural and explosive.

Jackson represents the new generation of bantamweight talent with his well-rounded skill set and impressive athletic ability. His striking has shown significant improvement, and his wrestling background provides a solid foundation for controlling fights. The American has demonstrated good fight IQ and adaptability, making him a tough puzzle to solve.

The key factor here lies in Figueiredo's championship pedigree and finishing ability. While Jackson is technically sound, he hasn't faced the level of elite competition that Figueiredo has conquered. The Brazilian's experience in high-pressure situations and his knack for finding dramatic finishes could prove decisive.

At 3.28 odds, Figueiredo presents excellent value. His power and experience advantage, combined with the potential benefits of fighting at a more natural weight class, make him a compelling underdog pick. Jackson's youth and momentum are notable, but championship experience often trumps potential in closely matched contests.

When it comes to MMA betting, few matchups get the blood pumping like a clash between seasoned veterans with something to prove. Deiveson Figueiredo, the Brazilian powerhouse and former UFC Flyweight Champion, steps into the octagon against Montel Jackson, a rising star in the bantamweight division. This bout is scheduled for October 12, 2025, at 01:15 UTC, and the odds are telling a compelling story: Figueiredo sits as the underdog at 3.28, while Jackson is the clear favorite at 1.36, with a draw lingering as a longshot at 70.00.

Figueiredo's resume is stacked with highlight-reel knockouts and submission victories. Known for his explosive power and grappling prowess, he's finished 17 of his 23 wins decisively. However, his recent move up to bantamweight has been a mixed bag. After dominating in flyweight, Figueiredo has faced tougher competition at 135 pounds, where size and endurance become critical factors. His last few fights have shown flashes of brilliance but also vulnerabilities against larger, more durable opponents. Betting on Figueiredo means banking on his ability to land that one big shot early, turning the tide in an instant.

On the flip side, Montel Jackson brings a different flavor to this fight. With a professional record that boasts impressive striking accuracy and takedown defense, Jackson has been climbing the ranks steadily. At 6'0" with a reach advantage, he can control the distance and pepper opponents with jabs and kicks, wearing them down over rounds. His recent wins, including a stunning knockout streak, highlight his finishing ability without relying solely on power. Jackson's favoritism at 1.36 isn't just hype; it's backed by his 80% finish rate in victories and his adaptability in the cage. Against a shorter Figueiredo, Jackson could exploit his range to avoid the Brazilian's power punches.

Diving deeper into the stats, Figueiredo's striking output averages around 3.5 significant strikes per minute, but his defense has holes—absorbing nearly as many as he lands. Jackson, meanwhile, lands over 4 strikes per minute with better accuracy and absorbs fewer hits. Takedown-wise, Figueiredo has the edge in grappling, but Jackson's sprawl game is solid, stuffing 75% of attempts in his career. If this goes to the ground, it could favor Figueiredo, but Jackson's cardio might allow him to weather the storm and turn it into a striking clinic.

From a betting perspective, the value here lies with Jackson. While Figueiredo's underdog odds at 3.28 tempt the risk-takers—offering a potential payout of $3.28 on a $1 bet—the smart money is on the favorite. Jackson's stylistic advantages, combined with his momentum, make him the safer pick for profitability. Sure, MMA is unpredictable, and Figueiredo has upset potential, but historical data shows favorites in similar mismatches win about 70% of the time. For those looking to build a bankroll, betting on Jackson could yield a steady return, especially if parlayed with other fights on the card.

That said, don't sleep on intangibles like fight IQ and experience. Figueiredo has been in championship wars, handling pressure that Jackson hasn't fully faced yet. But at this stage, Jackson's youth and hunger might just edge it out. If you're betting $1, putting it on Jackson at 1.36 nets you about $1.36 total—modest, but consistent wins add up in the long game of sports betting.

In summary, this fight screams potential fireworks, but my analysis points to Jackson controlling the pace and securing the victory. For MMA enthusiasts and bettors alike, it's a must-watch that could define both fighters' trajectories.

Analyzing this bantamweight clash, Montel Jackson enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.36, reflecting market confidence in his physical advantages and recent form. The 5'10" Jackson possesses an exceptional 82-inch reach and uses it masterfully behind a stiff jab and precise straight punches. His defensive wrestling (90% takedown defense in UFC) likely neutralizes Figueiredo's grappling threat. Jackson also holds significant power, evident in his five UFC stoppages. However, Deiveson Figueiredo at 3.28 presents undeniable value. The former flyweight champion carries devastating one-shot knockout power in his hands – a fight-altering equalizer Jackson hasn't consistently faced. Figueiredo's elite experience against championship-level opponents (Moreno, Benavidez) grants him superior big-fight composure. While Jackson thrives at range, Figueiredo excels at closing distance with explosive bursts. Should he navigate the reach disadvantage and connect cleanly early – a realistic possibility given Jackson's occasional defensive lapses – Figueiredo can score a stunning upset. Jackson’s consistency makes him the logical pick, but Figueiredo's finishing ability versus an opponent untested against his specific blend of power and experience creates a mispriced opportunity.

In this matchup between Deiveson Figueiredo and Montel Jackson, we’re dealing with two fighters who operate in vastly different weight classes and have contrasting styles. While Figueiredo is a former UFC Flyweight champion known for his devastating power and grappling acumen, Jackson is primarily a bantamweight fighter with a more technical approach. The odds reflect the bookmakers' lean toward Jackson at 1.36, while Figueiredo is listed as a significant underdog at 3.28. At first glance, betting on Jackson seems like the safer choice, but a deeper dive reveals opportunities where Figueiredo could shine.
Figueiredo’s reputation speaks for itself. He has faced some of the best fighters in the flyweight division and consistently demonstrated knockout power alongside an underrated submission game. His ability to dictate fights with either strikes or takedowns makes him unpredictable. However, recent performances suggest he can be vulnerable against opponents who exploit his sometimes inconsistent cardio or defensive lapses. Still, when motivated and focused, Figueiredo operates at an elite level that few can match.
Montel Jackson, on the other hand, brings a solid record into this bout but lacks the championship pedigree of Figueiredo. Jackson’s strengths lie in his wrestling base and steady striking, which allow him to control fights from a distance or through clinch work. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in regional circuits, his ceiling remains questionable against top-tier competition. A quick look at his resume shows no victories over opponents of Figueiredo’s caliber, raising doubts about how he would fare against such a dynamic threat.
A critical factor to consider is the weight disparity. Although both fighters will likely meet at a catchweight given their usual divisions, Figueiredo competing closer to his natural flyweight size might give him an edge in speed and overall sharpness. Conversely, Jackson moving down from bantamweight could see him lose some of his physical advantages, particularly in terms of strength and durability.","The fight dynamics also favor Figueiredo if it goes beyond the early exchanges. Jackson tends to start slow, relying on gradual pressure rather than explosive bursts. This gives Figueiredo ample opportunity to establish himself early, whether through aggressive striking combinations or timely takedowns. Moreover, Figueiredo’s experience in high-stakes environments ensures he won’t be overwhelmed by nerves—a potential issue for Jackson stepping up against such a formidable opponent.","From a betting perspective, the value lies squarely with Figueiredo at 3.28. While Jackson is favored due to his undefeated record and consistent performances, the odds fail to account for Figueiredo’s championship-level abilities and adaptability. In MMA, intangibles like mental toughness and ring IQ often outweigh raw stats or records, and Figueiredo possesses these qualities in spades. Placing a $1 bet on Figueiredo offers tremendous upside, especially considering his propensity for finishing fights quickly, which compounds the profitability of a successful wager.","Ultimately, this bout hinges on whether Jackson can solve the puzzle that is Deiveson Figueiredo within the allotted time. Given Figueiredo’s track record of dismantling opponents who struggle to handle his multifaceted attack, it’s reasonable to expect him to secure the victory here—even if it requires weathering an initial storm from Jackson. Factor in the lucrative payout for backing the underdog, and the decision becomes clear: Deiveson Figueiredo represents the smarter, more profitable investment in this contest.