Betting tips from AI for Dusan Lajovic vs Murphy Cassone, 14 January 2026.

This is a genuine coin-flip on paper but one with value. Bookmakers list Dusan Lajovic as the slight favorite (1.79), while Murphy Cassone is available at 2.06, and independent models like Forebet give Cassone a 57% edge — a gap worth exploiting.
Lajovic’s pedigree and a gritty comeback in round one (hard-court form 3-1) are real, but his second-serve fragility (winning ~56% of those points) hands a real opening to Cassone. The American’s recent first-serve efficiency (~70%) and a 50% break-point conversion make him dangerous on big points and pressure moments.
No head-to-head history increases variance, but the numbers suggest Cassone’s serve and break play can neutralize Lajovic’s strengths. Given the market price, I back Murphy Cassone as the value pick.

This Australian Open second-round clash between Dusan Lajovic and Murphy Cassone presents an intriguing betting proposition. Despite some analysts, like Forebet, giving Cassone a 57% edge, the bookmakers favor Lajovic at 1.79. Lajovic comes into this match with recent momentum, boasting a 3-1 hard-court record in 2026, highlighted by a gritty comeback win in the opening round. This demonstrates his ability to perform under pressure.

However, Cassone is not to be underestimated. His first-serve efficiency, reaching 70% in recent play, and a 50% break-point conversion rate are formidable weapons that could exploit Lajovic's noted second-serve vulnerability (56% win rate). While Lajovic's first serve is strong (73% points won), Cassone's aggressive play could trouble him. Given the Serbian's experience and current form, evidenced by his recent wins, he's poised to navigate this challenge. The lack of head-to-head history makes this a fresh encounter, but Lajovic's track record and ability to grind out wins make him the more reliable pick here.

Dusan Lajovic enters this Australian Open clash as the slight favorite at 1.79, and for good reason. His recent form on hard courts is impressive with a 3-1 record in 2026, including that gritty comeback win against Diaz Acosta in the opening round. While some prediction platforms like Forebet give Cassone a slight edge, Tennis Tonic's experts backing Lajovic in straight sets feels more aligned with the Serbian's experience advantage.

Cassone's 70% first-serve efficiency is certainly a weapon, but Lajovic's proven ability to win 73% of points on his first serve gives him the edge in service games. The American's 50% conversion on break points is impressive, but may not be enough against Lajovic's overall game.

The absence of head-to-head history adds intrigue, but Lajovic's higher ranking (23rd) and more extensive Grand Slam experience should prove decisive. While his second serve presents a potential vulnerability (56% win rate), his overall consistency and tactical acumen should carry him through to the next round.

In this intriguing second-round clash at the Australian Open, Dusan Lajovic faces off against rising American talent Murphy Cassone, a matchup brimming with uncertainty on the hard courts of Melbourne. Lajovic, the 23rd-ranked Serbian, enters with solid momentum after a gritty comeback win over Facundo Diaz Acosta in the opener, pushing his 2026 hard-court record to 3-1. His serve-and-volley style shines when landing first serves—he's winning 73% of those points—but that second-serve weakness at just 56% could be a chink in the armor against an aggressive foe.

Cassone, on the other hand, packs a punch with his dangerous serve, boasting 70% first-serve efficiency and a sharp 50% break-point conversion rate from recent outings. Without prior head-to-head history, this feels like a coin flip, especially with mixed analyst takes: Tennis Tonic sees Lajovic cruising in straight sets, while Forebet oddly tips Cassone with a 57% edge. Yet, the odds reflect the edge to experience, listing Lajovic at 1.79 and Cassone at 2.06.

For bettors eyeing value, Lajovic's proven depth in Grand Slams tips the scales. His recent form suggests he can neutralize Cassone's power and exploit any inexperience in big spots. Expect a competitive battle, but the Serb grinds out the win in four sets, making him the smart play at these odds to build that bankroll.

Lajovic rides a wave of momentum into this clash, boasting a world No. 23 ranking and a gritty comeback win to extend his 2026 hard-court record. However, Cassone's weaponized serve—70% first-serve efficiency and 50% break-point conversion—threatens to disrupt the Serbian's rhythm.

While some data models give Cassone a slight edge, Lajovic's own first-serve prowess (73% points won) and higher-level experience should prevail. His second-serve vulnerability is a concern, but at odds of 1.79 for Lajovic versus 2.06 for Cassone, the value lies with the favored veteran to navigate this unknown matchup.

This Australian Open second-round clash between Dusan Lajovic and Murphy Cassone promises to be a fascinating tactical battle, with both players bringing distinct strengths to the court. Lajovic, ranked 23rd, enters the match in decent form after a hard-fought opening-round victory over Facundo Diaz Acosta. His serve-and-volley game has been effective on hard courts, particularly when his first serve is landing—recently winning 73% of those points. However, his second serve remains a concern, with just a 56% win rate, which could prove costly against an aggressive opponent like Cassone.
Murphy Cassone’s recent performances have highlighted his dangerous serve, with a first-serve efficiency of 70% and a solid 50% conversion rate on break-point opportunities. These numbers suggest he can apply significant pressure on Lajovic's weaker second serve. While Forebet gives Cassone a slight edge at 57%, Tennis Tonic experts back Lajovic to dominate in straight sets, pointing to his experience and consistency on this stage.
The odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding the matchup, with Lajovic listed as a slight favorite at 1.79 compared to Cassone's 2.06. Given the lack of head-to-head history, this contest hinges on execution. If Cassone can maintain his serve and capitalize on break points, he has a real chance. However, Lajovic’s proven ability to grind out victories under pressure tips the scales slightly in his favor.
Ultimately, Lajovic’s superior ranking and momentum make him the safer bet despite Cassone’s potential to cause an upset.