Betting tips from AI for Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz, 05 October 2025.

Market check: Edmen Shahbazyan is a sizable favorite at 1.31, while Andre Muniz sits as the live underdog at 3.64 and the draw is a distant 50.00. Those numbers imply roughly 76% Shahbazyan, 27.5% Muniz, and ~2% draw, a combined overround in the 106% range—so we need to beat the price, not the house. At these tags, the question isn’t “who’s more talented?” as much as “who’s mispriced?”

Shahbazyan is the flashier striker: fast hands, sharp combinations, and real finishing power early. When he keeps the fight at range, he can look like a top-10 talent. But there’s a well-documented pattern—under sustained grappling, fence pressure, or body work, his output and defense fade. Multiple losses have followed a similar script: fast start, then defensive wrestling and cardio cracks as the fight extends. Even with improvements since leaving his original camp, the core risk profile—takedown defense under duress and late-fight resilience—remains the question.

Muniz brings a bankable pathway that historically troubles Shahbazyan: upper-tier jiu-jitsu, competent chain wrestling, and strong back-taking sequences from scrambles. He’s not the most dangerous boxer, but his entries are good enough to get clinch positions, and once on top he’s a serious threat to advance and finish. Yes, Muniz stumbled against physically imposing, well-rounded grapplers; but Shahbazyan’s grappling defense and get-ups are not on the Brendan Allen level, and he’s not a grinding top player like those who punished Muniz. Stylistically, this is closer to Muniz’s wheelhouse: get in, get down, and control.

The key battlegrounds are the first-grab phase and fence exchanges. If Shahbazyan keeps his feet clean and finds the pocket early, his speed can dent Muniz and force level changes from bad distances. But if Muniz gets the respect of the hands just enough to enter safely, his top control and submission chains become the fight’s gravity. Over 15 minutes, one sustained mat sequence can swing the scorecards—or end the bout outright.

From a numbers lens, backing Shahbazyan at 1.31 means paying for a 76%+ true win rate. That’s a tall order given the stylistic risk and historical cardio narrative. Muniz at 3.64 implies only ~27.5%; if you handicap him in the low-to-mid 30s (reasonable given his A-game matches Shahbazyan’s B-side), the bet becomes +EV. Risking $1 at 3.64 to win $2.64 (profit) is a fair trade when his clearest path—takedowns to control/sub—lines up with the favorite’s most persistent vulnerability.

The pick: side with the value on the underdog. I’ll take Muniz straight at 3.64, leaning submission or control-heavy decision as the most likely methods, with the acknowledgement that Shahbazyan’s early KO threat is real but overpriced at this number.

This middleweight clash presents a quintessential striker versus grappler dynamic, creating a fascinating puzzle for bettors. Edmen Shahbazyan enters as the significant favorite at 1.31, a line heavily influenced by his explosive striking and knockout power. Shahbazyan's game plan is no secret: he will look to apply immediate pressure, leverage his boxing advantage, and hunt for an early finish. In his best moments, he looks like a future title contender, overwhelming opponents with speed and precision. However, his past performances reveal a critical flaw that cannot be ignored.

Shahbazyan's cardio and grappling defense have been major liabilities. In his losses to Derek Brunson and Jack Hermansson, he looked phenomenal in the first round only to fade dramatically once the fight hit the mat or extended into deeper waters. While he has worked to address these issues, he has yet to prove he can consistently fend off an elite submission artist for fifteen minutes. This makes him a risky proposition at such short odds, as his path to victory feels narrow and time-sensitive. If he doesn't secure a knockout in the first five to seven minutes, the complexion of the fight could change drastically.

On the other side, Andre Muniz comes in as the live underdog at 3.64. Muniz is a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with some of the most dangerous submission skills in the entire division. His ability to find an armbar from almost any position is legendary, famously demonstrated when he snapped Jacare Souza's arm. His game plan is the polar opposite of Shahbazyan's: survive the initial onslaught, close the distance, secure a takedown, and let his grappling prowess take over. While his striking is rudimentary compared to his opponent's, it only needs to be functional enough to create an opening for a takedown.

Muniz's recent back-to-back TKO losses to Brendan Allen and Paul Craig are a cause for concern and are likely why his odds are so long. However, those losses came against powerful opponents who could stuff his takedowns and punish him on the feet. While Shahbazyan fits that mold, his takedown defense is not on the same level as Allen's. This fight is a calculated risk. The value lies squarely with Muniz. He possesses the perfect stylistic weapon to exploit Shahbazyan's most significant weakness. If Muniz can weather the early storm and drag this fight to the canvas just once, he has a very high probability of finding a submission. Betting on Muniz is a bet on his chin holding up long enough for his elite skills to dictate the outcome, and at 3.64, that's a risk well worth taking.

This middleweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters at different career crossroads. Edmen Shahbazyan enters as the betting favorite at 1.31, while Andre Muniz sits at 3.64, creating an intriguing risk-reward scenario.

Shahbazyan brings explosive striking power and exceptional hand speed to this encounter. The Armenian-American has shown devastating knockout ability throughout his career, with most of his victories coming via first or second-round finishes. His boxing fundamentals are sharp, and he possesses the kind of power that can end fights with a single clean connection. At just 27 years old, he's entering his physical prime and has been working extensively on his ground game to address previous weaknesses.

Muniz represents a completely different threat profile as a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. His grappling credentials are elite level, with multiple submission victories showcasing his ability to find finishes from various positions. The Brazilian has demonstrated improved takedown setups and wrestling in recent fights, making him more well-rounded than earlier in his career. His submission game remains his primary weapon, particularly his back control and rear naked choke setups.

The key battleground will be whether Muniz can successfully implement his grappling game plan. Shahbazyan's takedown defense has shown marked improvement, and his ability to maintain distance with his reach advantage could prove crucial. If this fight remains standing, Shahbazyan's power and precision striking give him significant advantages.

Muniz needs to weather the early storm and drag this into deep waters where his cardio and grappling experience become more pronounced factors. However, Shahbazyan's recent camp focus on grappling defense and his natural athleticism suggest he's better prepared for this challenge.

The betting value slightly favors Shahbazyan despite the heavy favorite status, as his path to victory appears more straightforward and probable.

When it comes to MMA betting, the matchup between Edmen Shahbazyan and Andre Muniz is one that has fight fans buzzing, especially with Shahbazyan entering as the heavy favorite at 1.31. Shahbazyan, known for his explosive striking and knockout power, has been on a path to redemption after some early career setbacks. At 27 years old, he's still in his prime, boasting a record that includes impressive wins over tough opponents like Brad Tavares. His ability to keep fights standing plays perfectly into his strengths, where he can unleash those devastating combinations that have ended fights in spectacular fashion.

On the other side, Andre Muniz at 3.64 is no slouch – he's a submission wizard with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, holding victories over notable names like Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza. Muniz thrives on the ground, where his grappling can neutralize even the best strikers. However, at 34, questions linger about his durability against younger, more athletic fighters like Shahbazyan. Muniz has shown vulnerabilities in stand-up exchanges, and if Shahbazyan can stuff takedowns early, this could turn into a striking clinic.

Diving deeper into the stats, Shahbazyan lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute with 54% accuracy, compared to Muniz's 2.85 at 47%. Defensively, Shahbazyan absorbs fewer strikes (3.45 vs. Muniz's 3.82), giving him an edge in prolonged exchanges. Muniz's takedown average is solid at 2.5 per 15 minutes, but Shahbazyan's 71% takedown defense should keep things upright. Recent form also favors Shahbazyan; he's won his last two fights decisively, showing improved fight IQ and cardio.

Betting-wise, laying $1 on Shahbazyan at 1.31 might not yield massive returns – you'd win about $0.31 profit – but it's a safer play for consistent bankroll growth. The draw at 50.00 is a long shot in MMA, where decisions or finishes are the norm. For value hunters, Muniz could be tempting if you believe in an upset via submission, but I see Shahbazyan's youth and power overwhelming Muniz en route to a TKO in the second round.

This fight screams potential fireworks, and for bettors, it's about weighing Shahbazyan's favoritism against Muniz's grappling threat. In a sport where anything can happen, I'm backing the favorite here for a profitable outcome.

Edmen Shahbazyan enters as a significant favorite at 1.31, reflecting faith in his explosive striking and athleticism. However, this line feels inflated and presents a prime value opportunity on Andre Muniz at 3.64. Shahbazyan's hype train has derailed significantly since his early UFC promise. He's lost 4 of his last 5 fights, and crucially, all three of his UFC losses came by stoppage due to grappling deficiencies – precisely Muniz's world-class specialty. Shahbazyan struggles immensely when pressured and taken down, showing poor defensive wrestling and submission defense.

Andre Muniz, a decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, possesses one of the most dangerous submission games in the division. While not the most dynamic striker, his path to victory is clear: close the distance, secure takedowns, and hunt submissions. He holds notable submission wins over elite grapplers like Jacare Souza and Eryk Anders, showcasing his ability to capitalize on any grappling advantage. Shahbazyan's defensive struggles against chain wrestling and back takes align perfectly with Muniz's strengths.

The massive odds discrepancy doesn't accurately reflect the inherent danger Muniz presents. Shahbazyan's chin and cardio remain question marks after recent performances, while Muniz is durable and relentlessly pursues his game plan. While Shahbazyan *could* land a devastating KO early, the likelihood of Muniz testing his grappling and finding a submission or grinding out rounds is significantly higher than the 27.5% chance implied by 3.64 odds. This is a classic case of a live underdog with a potent path to victory being undervalued by the market.

When analyzing the matchup between Edmen Shahbazyan and Andre Muniz, several key factors come into play that help us determine where the value lies in this betting scenario. Shahbazyan enters as the favorite with odds of 1.31, while Muniz is the underdog at 3.64. The draw sits at an astronomical 50.00, making it unlikely but worth noting for completeness.
Shahbazyan's career trajectory shows promise, particularly given his undefeated streak early in his UFC tenure and his strong grappling pedigree. However, his recent losses have raised questions about his adaptability against more experienced opponents. His striking remains a strength, but his ground game has shown vulnerabilities when matched against elite grapplers. This could be pivotal against Muniz, who thrives on taking fights to the mat and imposing his will through submission attempts.
Muniz, on the other hand, is riding high after notable victories that showcased both his grappling acumen and improved striking defense. His ability to chain submissions together makes him one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division. Given Shahbazyan’s defensive lapses on the ground, Muniz may see this as an opportunity to exploit those weaknesses. Additionally, Muniz’s fight IQ allows him to remain calm under pressure, which often translates into smarter decision-making during critical moments of a bout.
From a stylistic perspective, this fight appears tailor-made for Muniz to pull off the upset. Shahbazyan’s path to victory likely involves keeping the fight standing and using his superior athleticism to outpoint Muniz over five rounds. However, Muniz’s takedown accuracy and control time on the mat make it difficult to imagine Shahbazyan maintaining distance consistently enough to secure a win via decision. Moreover, if the fight hits the canvas—which seems probable—Shahbazyan’s defensive grappling shortcomings become glaringly apparent."The market odds suggest that bettors heavily favor Shahbazyan due to his name recognition and flashy skill set. Yet, these odds fail to account fully for Muniz’s technical prowess and recent momentum. At 3.64, there’s significant value in backing Muniz to win outright. While Shahbazyan might attract casual fans looking at the safer pick based on reputation alone, seasoned bettors should recognize the edge Muniz holds in terms of current form and tactical advantages."Furthermore, considering the potential payout from a successful wager on Muniz, this represents a prime example of finding value in overlooked underdogs. A $1 bet on Muniz would yield approximately $3.64 if he wins—a substantial return compared to risking nearly three times as much on Shahbazyan just to earn slightly above even money. In sports betting, identifying such discrepancies between perception and reality is crucial for long-term profitability.