Betting tips from AI for Elise Mertens vs Lanlana Tararudee, 19 January 2026.

Elise Mertens arrives as the clear favorite in Melbourne — world No. 21 with a 283-150 hardcourt record and analysts pegging her at roughly a 76% chance to advance. Her price of 1.30 reflects that pedigree and a sharp 3-1 start to 2026 capped by a recent Down Under semifinal run, giving her the tactical variety and experience to dictate rallies.

Lanlana Tararudee is a spirited qualifier who earned her spot with three tense wins this week and will bring confidence and momentum, but she lacks Mertens’ tour-level record and big-match experience. At 3.86 she’s a tempting long shot, yet the safest, highest-expected-value single-dollar play here is backing Mertens to close this in straight sets or a controlled three, exploiting her consistency on Melbourne hardcourts.

The Australian Open Women’s draw presents a classic first-round clash between established talent and an emerging qualifier. Elise Mertens, ranked world No. 21, is the undeniable favorite against Lanlana Tararudee, and the bookmakers agree, listing Mertens at 1.30.

Mertens' credentials speak volumes. Her impressive 283-150 hardcourt record is a testament to her consistency on this surface, and she's already riding a hot 3-1 start to 2026, including a semifinal run Down Under. Her veteran edge on Melbourne's hardcourts is significant, highlighted by her memorable 2018 semifinal charge here. This experience is invaluable in the pressure cooker of a Grand Slam.

While Tararudee deserves credit for grinding through three tense qualifying wins to reach the main draw, showcasing her fighting spirit, this is a significant step up in class. The momentum from qualifying can be a factor, but it's often overshadowed by the sheer quality and experience of a player like Mertens. Given the lopsided talent and track record, Mertens is poised for a straightforward victory. The analytics peg her win probability at 76%, aligning perfectly with the odds.

Elise Mertens presents tremendous value despite her chalk status at 1.30. The Belgian's experience edge cannot be overstated here – her 283-150 hardcourt record and previous Melbourne semifinal run in 2018 demonstrate her comfort on these courts. Her current form is particularly compelling, starting 2026 with a 3-1 record including another semifinal appearance Down Under.

While Tararudee deserves credit for battling through qualifying with three hard-fought victories, the leap in competition facing a world No. 21 player represents a massive challenge. The Thai qualifier at 3.86 simply lacks the top-level experience needed to overcome Mertens' tactical acumen and consistent baseline game.

The absence of head-to-head history adds intrigue, but Mertens' veteran savvy should allow her to dictate play from the outset. Expect her to neutralize Tararudee's qualifying momentum with steady, high-percentage tennis and advance comfortably in straight sets.

Elise Mertens steps onto the Melbourne hardcourts as the clear frontrunner in this Australian Open women's first-round clash, her world No. 21 ranking and impressive 283-150 record on the surface painting a picture of dominance. Coming off a 3-1 start to 2026, including a semifinal push Down Under, Mertens is primed to exploit her veteran savvy against qualifier Lanlana Tararudee.

Tararudee, the Thai underdog, has earned her main-draw spot with three gritty qualifying victories this week, showing real fight. But without prior meetings, the matchup tilts heavily toward Mertens, whose 2018 semifinal run here underscores her comfort in these conditions. Analysts give her a 76% edge, aligning perfectly with the odds at 1.30 for Mertens and 3.86 for Tararudee.

Betting $1 on Mertens to win offers a smart, low-risk play—her experience should seal a straight-sets victory in this lopsided affair, keeping our bankroll steady while chasing profits in the early rounds.

Elise Mertens storms into this Australian Open Women's first-round match as the clear favorite, with analysts pegging her win probability at 76% thanks to her world No. 21 ranking and stellar hardcourt record. Her 1.30 odds reflect heavy confidence, bolstered by a hot 3-1 start to 2026 and a recent semifinal run in Australia.

In contrast, qualifier Lanlana Tararudee, despite a gritty trio of qualifying wins, faces a daunting challenge with 3.86 odds. Mertens' veteran edge on Melbourne's courts, highlighted by her 2018 semifinal charge, sets up a lopsided battle where her consistency should prevail.

Elise Mertens enters this Australian Open first-round clash as the clear favorite, and for good reason. Her current form is impressive, boasting a 3-1 record in 2026 while showcasing her trademark consistency on hardcourts—a surface where she owns a career record of 283-150. The Belgian star's experience at Melbourne Park, including a semifinal run in 2018, adds another layer of confidence against a qualifier like Lanlana Tararudee. Though Tararudee has shown grit by battling through three qualifying matches to reach the main draw, her limited exposure at this level makes her a risky bet despite tempting odds of 3.86.

Mertens' dominance is further underscored by her world No. 21 ranking and analysts assigning her a 76% win probability. Qualifiers often struggle to sustain momentum once they hit the main stage, especially against seasoned opponents who know how to exploit fatigue. While Tararudee deserves credit for her recent performances, the step up in competition here is significant. With Mertens available at 1.30, the odds reflect her strong chance of advancing comfortably.

Given the circumstances, backing Mertens aligns with both statistical probabilities and situational factors. Her reliability under pressure gives her the edge in what should be a routine victory.