Betting tips from AI for Emiliana Arango vs McCartney Kessler, 19 January 2026.

McCartney Kessler is the form player — she crushed Emiliana Arango 6-1, 6-3 in Brisbane and experts and markets back the American heavily, with a ~75% market win probability and the book sitting at 1.19.

Still, Emiliana Arango at 5.25 represents a clear contrarian value. If you accept the market's ~25% upset chance, a $1 wager returns $4.25 if she flips the script. First-round variance, matchup quirks and Arango's nothing-to-lose mindset make an upset plausible; the pricing skews toward consensus, creating positive expected value on a one-off $1 play. Back Arango as a value bet.

The Australian Open first round pits Emiliana Arango against McCartney Kessler, and the betting markets paint a clear picture. Kessler, priced at 1.19, is the overwhelming favorite for good reason. Just weeks ago in Brisbane, she decisively crushed Arango 6-1, 6-3, a performance analysts expect her to repeat in Melbourne.

Arango's start to 2026 has been nothing short of a nightmare. She's winless, failing to take a single set in her losses to Kessler and Antonia Ruzic. Her overall form is alarming, with an ice-cold record of zero wins in her last eight of ten matches. This momentum-sapping slump is a significant concern for her Australian Open debut.

Conversely, Kessler arrives with confidence, building on a strong 2025 season that saw her reach the quarterfinals in Austin and a final in Nottingham. Her proficiency on hard courts, like those at Melbourne Park, further strengthens her position. Experts at The Stats Zone, along with the betting community, heavily back Kessler to dominate. Despite Arango’s long-shot odds of 5.25, all signs point to a comfortable victory for Kessler, making her the prudent pick for this encounter.

McCartney Kessler enters this Australian Open clash with overwhelming momentum against a struggling Emiliana Arango. Their recent Brisbane meeting tells the story clearly – Kessler dominated 6-1, 6-3, and nothing suggests a different outcome in Melbourne.

Arango's form is concerning, to say the least. Zero wins in 2026, not a single set claimed in recent matches, and a dismal run of losses in eight of her last ten outings. For a World No. 50 making her Australian Open debut, these are troubling indicators.

Kessler, ranked 36th, brings hard-court confidence and recent success, including quarterfinal and final appearances last year. The 1.19 odds reflect bookmakers' strong conviction in her superiority.

While 5.25 on Arango might tempt value hunters, her preparation and current form make this a mountain too steep to climb. Expect Kessler to impose her game and secure a comfortable straight-sets victory, justifying her heavy favorite status.

In the opening round of the Australian Open Women's draw, McCartney Kessler faces Emiliana Arango on the hard courts of Melbourne Park, and the matchup screams one-sided affair. Just weeks ago in Brisbane, Kessler dismantled Arango 6-1, 6-3, showcasing her superior baseline game and hard-court prowess. Now, with Arango mired in a winless streak—zero victories and not a single set in recent losses to Kessler and Hobart's Antonia Ruzic—the Colombian enters her debut ice-cold, having dropped eight of her last ten matches.

Kessler, ranked No. 36, carries hot momentum from last year's quarterfinal run in Austin and a Nottingham final appearance. As World No. 50 Arango struggles with poor prep, the American's 75% implied win probability feels spot on, especially at odds of 1.19 that make her a banker bet. Analysts at The Stats Zone echo this, predicting another dominant performance.

For bettors eyeing value, laying $1 on Kessler at 1.19 nets a modest but reliable return, capitalizing on her edge in this lopsided clash. Expect a swift repeat—Kessler advances in straight sets.

McCartney Kessler dominates this matchup, fresh off a 6-1, 6-3 rout of Emiliana Arango in Brisbane. Arango's 2026 woes continue with zero wins and no sets taken, while Kessler rides momentum from last year's quarter and final runs.

The odds tell the story: Kessler is a heavy favorite at 1.19, with Arango a massive underdog at 5.25. Analysts and a 75% market win probability back the American to exploit Arango's cold streak on hard courts.

For a profitable bet, Kessler's form and edge make her the smart pick to advance swiftly in Melbourne.

This Australian Open first-round clash between Emiliana Arango and McCartney Kessler feels like a mismatch on paper, especially with the momentum Kessler carries into Melbourne. The American dominated their recent encounter in Brisbane, winning 6-1, 6-3, and has consistently outperformed Arango on hard courts. Kessler's rise is evident from her strong performances last year, including a quarterfinal run in Austin and a finals appearance in Nottingham. Meanwhile, Arango’s form has been abysmal, with no wins in her last eight of ten matches and a crushing loss to Antonia Ruzic just days ago.

The betting odds reflect this disparity, with Kessler listed at 1.19 compared to Arango's 5.25. While Arango’s underdog status might tempt some bettors, her lack of confidence and poor preparation make it hard to justify backing her here. Kessler’s game thrives on precision and consistency, traits that have troubled Arango in the past. With analysts tipping Kessler to dominate again, the safer and more profitable wager aligns with the favorite.

Given Kessler’s edge in skill, form, and head-to-head history, she is the clear choice to advance. Her odds may not offer massive returns, but the likelihood of victory makes her the smarter pick for long-term profitability.