Betting tips from AI for Farman Hasanov vs Abdurakhman Fazilov, 21 November 2025.

This is a classic risk-versus-reward spot where the market perception has outpaced the evidence. Farman Hasanov is rightly being framed as the favorite on paper—he’s undefeated, handled business with a clean TKO last time out, and has already banked two wins under the LFA banner. But at a price of 1.20 versus Abdurakhman Fazilov’s 4.25, the number implies far more certainty than this matchup actually deserves. Both are early-career prospects with small samples, and the consensus from analysts is that while Hasanov owns the cleaner U.S. experience and more trustworthy striking, this fight carries real volatility.

Fazilov’s profile creates dangerous edges in precisely the kinds of exchanges that flip favorites: he’s 6-0 with four submissions, he hunts transitions aggressively, and he’s finished his last two. The step up to welterweight introduces unknowns, but it can also amplify his grappling leverage if he carries speed and cardio north. If he can force clinches, win first contact, or back Hasanov to the fence to trigger single-leg and body-lock chains, the underdog’s path is live. The submission threat is not hypothetical; it’s his proven win condition. Add in that both fighters are still forming identities, and you get a bout where momentum swings are plausible rather than rare.

On the other side, Hasanov’s advantages are clear: more polished stand-up, LFA cage reps, and the comfort of having already fought in the U.S. If this stays predominantly at range, Hasanov’s jab and shot selection should win minutes and potentially create a late finish opportunity. But that stylistic edge has to be weighed against the implied probabilities. 1.20 suggests an 80%+ true win rate, leaving Fazilov near the mid-20s. Given the uncertainty analysts themselves highlighted—question marks about competition level, both fighters still “hyper prospects,” and late market tightening—pricing Hasanov as that safe feels rich.

From a $1-bet, long-run EV perspective, the dog moneyline is the better swing. Fazilov’s finishing equity compresses the skill gap, and his grappling-oriented win condition pays off disproportionately at 4.25. You’re not betting that Fazilov outpoints Hasanov minute-by-minute; you’re betting he creates a few scrambly sequences, locks a back take or front-headlock, and turns one dominant position into a tap or decisive momentum shift. With no significant injury red flags and both men undefeated, variance is your friend—especially when the price compensates you this much.

The pick is to take the value: Fazilov moneyline at 4.25. It’s a calculated underdog shot in a fight where small-sample uncertainty and stylistic danger make the favorite’s tag look too steep.

This Legacy Fighting Alliance bout presents a classic clash of undefeated prospects, but the context surrounding the fight heavily favors Farman Hasanov. While both men carry unblemished records, the paths they've taken to get here are vastly different, and that's where the betting analysis becomes clear. Hasanov, priced as the heavy favorite at 1.20, has already acclimated to fighting in the United States and has secured two victories within the LFA, including a recent TKO. This experience is invaluable and cannot be overstated. He understands the pressure, the environment, and the level of competition he's up against.

Abdurakhman Fazilov, on the other hand, is walking into a trifecta of challenges. Firstly, this is his U.S. debut. The travel, time zone change, and fighting in front of a foreign crowd for the first time are significant hurdles that often impact a fighter's performance. Secondly, and perhaps most critically, he is moving up from the 155 lb lightweight division to welterweight for this matchup. Jumping a weight class can negatively affect cardio, speed, and power dynamics, especially against an opponent who is a natural fit for the division. Finally, analysts have questioned the level of his previous opponents in Central Asia and pointed to his striking as a developmental area. This is a dangerous weakness against Hasanov, who has demonstrated legitimate knockout power.

While Fazilov's 6-0 record, featuring four submission victories, is impressive and makes him a live underdog, his path to victory seems narrow. He will need to close the distance, survive Hasanov's striking, and drag the fight to the mat where he holds a clear advantage. However, Hasanov's experience and physical advantages at welterweight should allow him to control the fight's geography, keeping it standing where he can exploit Fazilov's defensive gaps. The line movement making the odds closer suggests some are tempted by the 4.25 payout on Fazilov, but the fundamental disadvantages he faces are too significant to ignore. Hasanov is the more proven and reliable fighter in this specific context.

This Legacy Fighting Alliance 223 matchup presents a fascinating clash between two undefeated prospects, but the odds heavily favor Farman Hasanov at 1.20 for compelling reasons. While Abdurakhman Fazilov enters with an impressive 6-0 record, several factors point toward Hasanov's superiority in this welterweight encounter.

Hashanov's experience advantage cannot be overstated. His 2-0 record in LFA competition demonstrates he's already adapted to high-level American MMA, while this marks Fazilov's debut outside Central Asia. The psychological pressure of fighting in front of a U.S. crowd at Niagara Falls, combined with the career-defining nature of this opportunity, could overwhelm the visiting fighter. Hasanov's recent TKO victory showcases his finishing ability and current form.

The weight class change adds another layer of concern for Fazilov. Moving up from 155 pounds to welterweight against an established opponent like Hasanov introduces significant variables. Analyst Daniel Vreeland's assessment that Fazilov's "striking isn't there yet" becomes particularly relevant when facing a fighter with proven knockout power - Hasanov boasts 2 KOs in just 3 professional fights.

While Fazilov's grappling credentials are impressive with 4 submission victories, Hasanov's diverse skill set and adaptability suggest he can avoid prolonged ground exchanges. The American-based fighter's training environment and coaching likely provide superior preparation for mixed martial arts' evolving meta-game.

Despite the steep 1.20 odds offering minimal return, Hasanov represents the safer investment. His combination of experience, striking power, home advantage, and proven ability at this level outweighs Fazilov's submission skills and undefeated record. The bookmakers' confidence in Hasanov reflects legitimate advantages that should manifest during fight night.

In the world of MMA, where prospects clash and legends are born, the upcoming bout between Farman Hasanov and Abdurakhman Fazilov at Legacy Fighting Alliance 223 is shaping up to be a fascinating showdown. Set for November 22, 2025, in Niagara Falls, New York, this welterweight matchup pits two undefeated fighters against each other, each bringing their own unique story to the octagon. Hasanov, with a pristine 3-0 record including two knockouts and one decision, enters as the heavy favorite at 1.20. His recent TKO victory showcases his finishing power, and his 2-0 stint in LFA competition gives him a clear edge in familiarity with the promotion and the U.S. fighting scene.

On the other side, Fazilov boasts an impressive 6-0 record, with one knockout and four submissions, highlighting his grappling prowess. However, analysts like Daniel Vreeland have pointed out potential weaknesses in his striking game, noting that it 'isn’t there yet.' This fight marks Fazilov's U.S. debut after securing his visa, and he's moving up from 155 lbs to welterweight, which could affect his performance. Fighting outside Central Asia for the first time, in front of a U.S. crowd, adds an element of uncertainty—will the pressure and adaptation prove too much?

What makes this matchup intriguing is the narrative of 'hyper prospects' who have slightly dimmed in luster, as MMA journalist Jeff Fox puts it. Both are undefeated, but Hasanov's experience stateside and against presumably higher-level competition tips the scales. Fazilov has finished his last two fights, showing he's no slouch, but questions about his previous opponents' quality linger. The odds have tightened recently from Hasanov as a moderate favorite, reflecting some buzz around Fazilov's potential upset at 4.25, but the smart money seems to stay with the more proven commodity.

From a betting perspective, laying $1 on Hasanov at 1.20 might not yield massive returns— you'd win about $0.20—but it's a safer play in a sport where favorites often prevail in prospect matchups. If you're feeling bold, Fazilov's underdog status offers value for those believing in his submission game disrupting Hasanov's rhythm. However, without major injuries reported and both entering at peak form, Hasanov's TKO potential and acclimation to the environment make him the predicted winner. This fight isn't just about records; it's about adaptation, experience, and that intangible 'it' factor in MMA.

For sports betting enthusiasts, keep an eye on late line movements—any further tightening could signal insider confidence in Fazilov. But based on the news, Hasanov's undefeated streak and recent performances position him to control the fight, likely ending in another finish. It's a high-stakes U.S. debut for Fazilov, but Hasanov's poise under the lights should carry the day.

This welterweight showdown at LFA 223 features two undefeated prospects, but Farman Hasanov stands out as the clear favorite for several compelling reasons. Priced at 1.20, Hasanov brings a perfect 3-0 record with two TKOs, demonstrating explosive finishing ability that has analysts like Jeff Fox labeling him the frontrunner. His experience in the Legacy Fighting Alliance, where he's 2-0, and familiarity with U.S. cages provide a significant edge, as Daniel Vreeland highlighted his composure and superior striking—key factors against an opponent making his American debut.

Abdurakhman Fazilov, available at 4.25, boasts an impressive 6-0 slate with four submission wins, showcasing his grappling prowess. However, his move up from lightweight to welterweight raises concerns about size and power disadvantages, potentially leaving him exposed to Hasanov's aggressive style. While Fazilov's visa approval and this 'big chance' have generated buzz, critiques of his striking level and untested competition cast doubt on his ability to handle the step-up in class and pressure of a new environment.

Odds movement tightening closer to fight night indicates some market belief in Fazilov's upside, but for bettors, value hinges on probability. Hasanov's implied win chance of around 83% aligns well with his proven track record and analytical support, whereas Fazilov's higher-risk profile—due to weight adjustment and debut nerves—makes a payout less likely. In MMA, where experience often dictates outcomes, backing Hasanov offers a steady path to profit, capitalizing on his reliability in high-stakes moments.

This matchup between Farman Hasanov and Abdurakhman Fazilov presents a fascinating clash of international prospects, each with their own strengths, weaknesses, and narratives. At first glance, the odds reflect Hasanov’s status as the favorite, with his line sitting at 1.20, while Fazilov is priced as the underdog at 4.25. These numbers suggest that bookmakers see Hasanov as the more likely winner, but the slight movement in odds closer to fight night hints at some uncertainty among bettors and experts.
Farman Hasanov enters this bout with an undefeated record of 3-0, including two knockout victories and one decision win. His recent TKO finish underscores his power and finishing ability, which could prove decisive against an opponent like Fazilov, whose striking has been questioned by analysts. Daniel Vreeland’s comments about Fazilov’s lack of elite striking defense are particularly noteworthy, as Hasanov’s aggressive style may exploit any technical gaps. Additionally, Hasanov’s experience competing in the U.S., specifically within the LFA promotion, gives him familiarity with the environment and ruleset—something Fazilov will be encountering for the first time. This home-field advantage, combined with Hasanov’s physical tools and momentum, makes him a formidable contender.
On the other hand, Abdurakhman Fazilov boasts an impressive 6-0 record, featuring four submission wins and only one knockout victory. His grappling-heavy approach suggests he might look to take the fight to the ground early, where he can neutralize Hasanov’s striking prowess. However, moving up from lightweight (155 lbs) to welterweight (170 lbs) for this fight introduces questions about how well Fazilov will adapt to larger opponents. While his undefeated streak is admirable, the level of competition he faced in Central Asia does not compare favorably to Hasanov’s tougher slate in the U.S., raising doubts about whether he can handle the step up in quality."The narrative surrounding Fazilov’s debut in the United States adds another layer of intrigue. Analysts have framed this as a pivotal moment for his career, emphasizing the “big chance” it represents. Yet, adapting to a new country, crowd, and promotional atmosphere can create additional pressure, especially for a fighter stepping into arguably the toughest test of his career. The fact that commentators have noted both fighters losing “a little bit of their luster” further amplifies the unpredictability of this bout. Neither fighter has faced truly world-class opposition, meaning we’re dealing with unknown quantities on both sides."When evaluating the betting value, the key lies in balancing risk versus reward. Placing a $1 bet on Hasanov at 1.20 offers minimal upside, yielding just $0.20 in profit if he wins—a scenario many consider likely given his credentials. Conversely, backing Fazilov at 4.25 provides a potential payout of $4.25 for every dollar wagered, representing significant upside. However, given the concerns about Fazilov’s striking and his inexperience fighting abroad, the likelihood of him pulling off the upset seems relatively low."Ultimately, the smart play here is siding with Farman Hasanov. Despite the narrow odds, his advantages in striking, power, and familiarity with the U.S. MMA scene give him the edge. While Fazilov’s grappling could pose problems if he secures takedowns, Hasanov’s knockout capability means he can end the fight instantly, reducing Fazilov’s opportunities to implement his game plan. The late-line movement toward tighter odds reflects growing confidence in Hasanov among bettors, reinforcing the notion that he is the safer and more logical pick.