Betting tips from AI for FC St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV, 23 January 2026.

This Nordderby is a desperate six‑pointer at Millerntor: rock‑bottom FC St. Pauli arrive on a DWDLL skid, shipping goals and with only three clean sheets, while they still hold a shock 2-0 away scalp over Hamburger SV earlier this season. Bookmakers list St. Pauli at 2.74, Hamburger SV at 2.90 and the Draw at 3.09.

HSV carry steadier recent form — WLDLD with strong late‑2025 home wins over Stuttgart and Wolfsburg — and have a clear revenge motive. St. Pauli's home passion helps, but their defensive instability makes them vulnerable to HSV's structured attacks and set pieces.

Prediction: Hamburger SV. The safer value for a $1 bet is HSV at 2.90, combining form, home security and revenge hunger.

This Nordderby is a true relegation thriller under the Millerntor floodlights, with rock-bottom St. Pauli desperate for points against mid-table strugglers Hamburger SV. St. Pauli arrives on a "dismal DWDLL skid," occupying 18th place and "shipping goals galore," a worrying sign given their mere "3 clean sheets" this season. While they pulled off a "shock 2-0 away win earlier" against HSV, their current form is dire, still chasing their "first victory of the year."

HSV, on the other hand, comes in with a more mixed "WLDLD" form, including a "promising Gladbach domination." They are undoubtedly seeking "revenge" for that earlier home loss and are keen to avoid a season sweep. Despite being "four points shy of safety," their motivation will be sky-high. Given St. Pauli's defensive frailties and HSV's desire to extend their strong late-2025 form, the value lies with the visitors. HSV at 2.90 offers a compelling bet against a team struggling to find any defensive solidity.

The 113th Hamburg Derby sees a desperate St. Pauli hosting their rivals in what could be a season-defining relegation battle. Despite sitting rock-bottom, St. Pauli showed fighting spirit in their recent Dortmund match and, crucially, already defeated HSV 2-0 in their earlier season meeting.

Hamburger SV's inconsistent form (WLDLD) doesn't inspire confidence for an away derby. Their impressive home victories against Stuttgart and Wolfsburg haven't translated to road success. St. Pauli's defensive vulnerabilities (just 3 clean sheets all season) are concerning, but derby matches often transcend form tables.

With both teams desperate—St. Pauli for their first win of 2026 and HSV needing points to climb away from the relegation zone—expect a tense, hard-fought affair. The Millerntor atmosphere will be electric, and with odds at 2.74 for the hosts versus 2.90 for HSV, the value lies with the home side continuing their derby dominance in this six-pointer.

The Nordderby is always a powder keg, and this relegation scrap between rock-bottom FC St. Pauli and mid-table Hamburger SV promises fireworks under the Millerntor lights. St. Pauli, limping in on a DWDLL skid and shipping goals like a leaky bucket with just three clean sheets all season, desperately need points after their gutsy but spoiled comeback at Dortmund. Yet, they stunned HSV with a shock 2-0 away win earlier, leaving the visitors hungry for revenge in this 113th Hamburg Derby—a true six-pointer with both sides fighting for survival.

HSV's WLDLD form isn't sparkling, but their late-2025 home dominance—big wins over Stuttgart and Wolfsburg—hints at firepower, especially as they gear up for Bayern. Four points from safety, they're the slight favorites at 2.90, while St. Pauli's home grit at 2.74 offers value for the underdogs, and draw at 3.09 tempts in this tense clash.

Betting $1 here? I'm eyeing St. Pauli to pull off the upset again. Their derby desperation and that prior victory fuel belief in a gritty home stand. Expect a low-scoring thriller, but the Pirates edge it for survival.

In the heated 113th Hamburg Derby, FC St. Pauli hosts Hamburger SV in a crucial relegation six-pointer. St. Pauli limps in on a dismal DWDLL skid, shipping goals frequently and sitting rock-bottom, despite a gutsy comeback attempt at Dortmund spoiled by a late penalty. Conversely, HSV arrives with WLDLD form but has shown flashes of quality, dominating Gladbach and securing big wins over Stuttgart and Wolfsburg late in 2025.

HSV is desperate for revenge after St. Pauli's shock 2-0 away win earlier this season, aiming to avoid a season sweep. Under the Millerntor floodlights, derby emotions will run high, but HSV's stronger recent performances against top sides suggest they might edge this. With odds at 2.74 for St. Pauli, 2.90 for HSV, and 3.09 for the draw, the value lies with Hamburger SV to capitalize on St. Pauli's defensive woes and secure a vital away victory.

The Nordderby between FC St. Pauli and Hamburger SV is a crucial match for both teams, with each side desperately needing points to improve their league standing. FC St. Pauli, currently in 18th place, have been struggling with a poor defensive record, managing only three clean sheets this season. Their recent form of DWDLL indicates a lack of consistency and the ability to hold onto leads. On the other hand, Hamburger SV, despite being mid-table, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their dominant performance against Gladbach. HSV's form of WLDLD suggests they are capable of pulling off strong performances, especially after their impressive home wins over Stuttgart and Wolfsburg. The motivation for revenge following St. Pauli's 2-0 away win earlier in the season adds an extra layer of intensity to this match. Given the current form and the stakes involved, Hamburger SV seems to have the edge, both in terms of recent performances and the desire to avoid a season sweep. The odds for Hamburger SV at 2.90 offer a good value bet, considering their stronger form and the psychological advantage.