Betting tips from AI for Feyenoord vs SK Sturm Graz, 22 January 2026.

Feyenoord arrive at De Kuip the pre-match favorite with odds 1.43, but the numbers behind the badge look concerning: 30th in the group, just 3 points from six, 13 conceded and only seven scored. Sturm Graz sit marginally above them with 4 points and a more conservative defensive record, and Feyenoord’s recent home form has been poor, with four defeats in six.

Given that context the market’s heavy favorite price looks overbaked. The head-to-head history favors Feyenoord, but those wins are outdated. Backing SK Sturm Graz at 6.33 represents real value versus the implied probability; a disciplined away side exploiting Feyenoord’s defensive fragility could nick a result, making the upset a smart one-dollar punt. The draw at 5.02 is respectable, but the best profit upside here is the Graz shock.

Feyenoord enters this Europa League clash as clear favorites at 1.43, a price that would normally inspire confidence. However, their recent form paints a starkly different picture. The Dutch side is enduring a 'dire' period, with an alarming 83 percent loss rate in their last six Europa League outings and four defeats in their recent six home matches across all competitions. This makes the pre-match analysis suggesting a 68 percent win probability for Feyenoord feel overly optimistic.

SK Sturm Graz, while also struggling, sits just above Feyenoord in the standings and has conceded fewer goals (8 vs 13). While Feyenoord boasts a dominant head-to-head record, including a 6-0 thrashing in 2022/23, current form often outweighs historical matchups. Given Feyenoord's defensive vulnerabilities and Sturm Graz's modest attack, a cagey affair is likely.

With Feyenoord's struggles making their favored odds unattractive, the real value lies in betting against the market's perception. A draw at 5.02 offers an exceptional return for a scenario where two struggling teams could cancel each other out, especially with Feyenoord's form being so poor even at home.

Despite being the clear favorite at 1.43, Feyenoord's current form raises serious concerns. Their Europa League campaign has been disastrous with five losses from six matches, conceding 13 goals while scoring just 7. Their home form is equally troubling with four defeats in their last six matches across all competitions.

Sturm Graz, while not impressive themselves with just 4 points from 6 matches, have shown slightly better resilience. The Austrian side has conceded fewer goals (8) compared to Feyenoord's leaky defense (13).

While history favors Feyenoord after their dominant 6-0 and 1-0 victories in their 2022/23 meetings, current form suggests a much closer contest. With Feyenoord's defensive vulnerabilities and an 83 percent loss rate in recent European fixtures, backing the heavily favored Dutch side offers poor value. The 5.02 odds on a draw present an attractive opportunity given Feyenoord's struggles and Sturm Graz's competitive but limited attacking capabilities.

Feyenoord welcome SK Sturm Graz to De Kuip in a crucial UEFA Europa League clash, where both teams are desperate for points in a lackluster campaign. The Dutch giants, sitting 30th with just 3 points from six matches, have been leaky at the back, shipping 13 goals while netting only 7. Their recent form is alarming—an 83% loss rate in last six Europa ties and four home defeats in six across all comps—but home soil could spark a turnaround.

Sturm Graz, one spot above in 29th with 4 points, have been slightly more resilient defensively (8 conceded, 4 scored), but their one win and one draw hardly scream confidence. The head-to-head tilts heavily Feyenoord's way: a dominant 6-0 home thrashing and 1-0 away win in 2022/23.

Bookies see Feyenoord as clear favorites at 1.43, with Sturm at 6.33 and draw 5.02. Despite the form woes, that historical edge and home advantage make the hosts the smart play for a gritty victory. Expect Feyenoord to edge it 2-1, grinding out the win to boost their survival hopes.

Feyenoord are installed as heavy favorites with odds of 1.43, largely due to their commanding head-to-head record, including a 6-0 home win over Sturm Graz in 2022. Yet, their current Europa League campaign is in disarray—they languish in 30th place with just one win in six matches and an 83% loss rate recently.

Sturm Graz, marginally better in 29th, presents a high-reward gamble at 6.33, while the draw offers 5.02. Despite Feyenoord's defensive woes and poor home form, their quality and desperate need for points at De Kuip should edge out a scrappy victory, making the favorite the pragmatic pick.

Feyenoord and SK Sturm Graz are set to face off in a crucial UEFA Europa League match on January 22, 2026. Both teams have had a challenging campaign so far, with Feyenoord sitting in 30th place and Sturm Graz just one spot above in 29th. Despite being the home team, Feyenoord's recent form has been poor, with only one win in their last six matches and a concerning 83 percent loss rate in their recent Europa League games. Their defensive struggles, having conceded 13 goals, add to the concerns. On the other hand, Sturm Graz, while not in great form either, has shown slightly more resilience, conceding fewer goals and managing to secure a draw in addition to their one win. Historically, Feyenoord has dominated this fixture, winning both previous encounters, including a 6-0 thrashing at home. However, given their current form, it's hard to back them with confidence. The bookmakers' odds favor Feyenoord at 1.43, but the value might lie in backing Sturm Graz at 6.33 or even considering a draw at 5.02. Given the defensive issues and recent form, a draw seems like a reasonable outcome.