Betting tips from AI for Giacomo Michelis vs Michael Dubois, 21 November 2025.

The market has planted its flag: Giacomo Michelis is a big favorite at 1.19, while Michael Dubois sits at a punchy 4.35. Those prices imply roughly 84% for Michelis and 23% for Dubois. That’s a wide gap for a striker-vs-grappler matchup where one clean transition can flip the script. If you believe this will be a “grappling-heavy war,” as Dan Hardy suggested, variance increases—and big numbers on the dog start to look interesting.

Michelis deserves favoritism. He’s 8-1, on a three-fight streak, and his June decision win showcased improved wrestling defense and disciplined shot selection. His jab-low-kick game builds leads that judges reward, and an Italian-leaning crowd at BEC Arena could amplify his momentum. If this goes long, Michelis’s cardio and measured striking edge likely stack minutes and win rounds.

But Dubois is exactly the kind of underdog who breaks tickets. A 16-11 record hides a very dangerous submission threat, fresh off a first-round tap in September and praised by Olympic judoka Sergei Müller for his finishing craft. He’s strong from the clinch, can convert trips and sacrifice throws, and attacks the neck immediately when scrambles appear. In a smaller, intimate setting like “CW 197: Unplugged,” one momentum swing can change everything.

Tactically, Michelis must protect his hips, win underhooks against the fence, and keep the fight at kicking range. Dubois needs chain entries—single to body lock to outside trip—and to avoid prolonged striking exchanges where Michelis picks him off. If Dubois secures top or back position early, his submission equity spikes.

Price is the decider. At 1.19, Michelis is priced like a near lock; I project him closer to 74–76%. That leaves Dubois around 24–26%, which edges the 4.35 break-even (~23%). With finishing upside and mild camp noise around Michelis, the plus-money is the better $1 bet. Pick: Michael Dubois moneyline for value, acknowledging Michelis by-decision is the chalkiest outcome.

This CW 197 co-main event presents a classic MMA puzzle: the surging striker versus the wily veteran grappler. Giacomo Michelis, an explosive Italian prospect, steps into the cage as a prohibitive favorite with odds as short as 1.19. His pristine 8-1 record and three-fight win streak paint the picture of a fighter on a clear upward trajectory, destined for bigger stages. Across from him stands Michael Dubois, a seasoned campaigner with a 16-11 record, who offers tantalizing value for underdog backers at 4.35.

The fight's narrative is written in their styles. Michelis will look to leverage his striking advantage, keeping the fight at range where he can unleash his power. Dubois's path to victory is singular and clear: he must get this fight to the canvas. His recent first-round submission win is a stark reminder of his capabilities, a point echoed by Olympic judoka Sergei Müller, who praised Dubois's ground game as potent enough to 'shock' the favorite. This isn't just talk; it's a recognized and dangerous skillset.

However, the smart money follows the favorite here for several key reasons. Respected analyst and former UFC fighter Dan Hardy specifically noted Michelis's 'recent improvements in wrestling.' This is the crucial detail. For a striker facing a submission specialist, takedown defense is everything. If Michelis has genuinely shored up this part of his game, he effectively neutralizes Dubois's primary win condition. This forces Dubois to engage in a striking battle he is ill-equipped to win against the younger, faster, and more powerful Michelis.

While some may point to the leaked video of a heated sparring session as a sign of trouble in the Michelis camp, it can just as easily be interpreted as a sign of a fighter pushing himself to the limit with high intensity. Furthermore, the expected pro-Italian crowd will only add to his momentum. Dubois's 11 career losses indicate a pattern of falling short against higher-level competition, and Michelis certainly fits that description. While the odds on Michelis offer little return, the probability of him winning is significantly high, making it the most sensible prediction for a profitable outcome.

The odds heavily favor Giacomo Michelis at 1.19 against Michael Dubois at 4.35, but this classic striker versus grappler matchup presents compelling betting angles worth examining closely.

Michelis enters as the clear favorite with an impressive 8-1 record and a three-fight win streak, including a dominant unanimous decision victory in June 2025. His striking prowess has been consistently praised, and former UFC champion Dan Hardy's prediction of a "grappling-heavy war" suggests Michelis has significantly improved his wrestling game to complement his stand-up skills. This evolution makes him a more complete fighter than when he potentially faced Dubois in regional circuits previously.

However, several factors create value on the underdog side. Dubois brings extensive experience with his 16-11 record and recently demonstrated his submission skills with a first-round finish in September 2025. Swiss Olympic judoka Sergei Müller's endorsement of Dubois's ground game carries significant weight, suggesting the Canadian possesses elite-level grappling that could "shock Michelis" if the fight hits the mat.

The leaked sparring video showing Michelis in a heated altercation raises questions about his camp's preparation and mental state heading into this high-profile bout at the exclusive CW 197 event. Camp drama can manifest in poor performance, especially against a seasoned veteran like Dubois who knows how to capitalize on opponents' weaknesses.

While the Italian crowd support at BEC Arena Manchester could provide Michelis with extra motivation, Dubois's experience advantage in high-pressure situations shouldn't be underestimated. His ability to secure submissions creates a clear path to victory that bypasses Michelis's striking advantages entirely.

Given the significant odds disparity and Dubois's proven finishing ability, the value lies with the underdog despite Michelis's recent improvements and favorable matchup dynamics.

As we gear up for this intriguing MMA clash at CW 197: Unplugged in Manchester's BEC Arena, all eyes are on Giacomo Michelis versus Michael Dubois. Michelis, the heavy favorite at 1.19, boasts an impressive 8-1 record and a three-fight win streak, his latest being a unanimous decision victory back in June 2025. This Italian striker has shown marked improvements in his wrestling, as noted by former UFC champ Dan Hardy, who predicts a grappling-heavy affair where Michelis could edge out a win if it goes the distance.

On the flip side, Michael Dubois enters with a 16-11 record and fresh off a first-round submission win in September 2025. Priced as the underdog at 4.35, Dubois's grappling prowess, especially his submission skills, has been hyped by Swiss Olympic judoka Sergei Müller. This sets up a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic, and with their prior encounter in regional circuits adding personal stakes, it could get heated.

The buzz around this fight is amplified by its exclusive, invite-only setting, and there's even some controversy from a leaked sparring video showing Michelis in a camp altercation—though no injuries are reported, and both fighters made weight smoothly. Italian football icon Alessandro Del Piero is rallying support for Michelis, calling him Italy's next MMA star, which might give him a mental edge with a strong Italian crowd presence despite the neutral venue.

From a betting perspective, Michelis's odds reflect his dominance on paper, but Dubois's experience and ground game could pose a threat if he drags the fight to the mat early. However, Michelis's recent form and wrestling upgrades make him the safer pick. Hardy’s analysis leans toward Michelis grinding out a decision, and given Dubois's inconsistent record, an upset seems less likely unless he pulls off a quick submission.

For bettors looking to maximize profits with a $1 stake, betting on Michelis at 1.19 yields a modest return—about $0.19 profit if he wins—but it's the higher-probability play. If you're feeling bold, Dubois at 4.35 could net $3.35 profit on that dollar, but the risk is substantial. I'd place my $1 on Michelis, banking on his streak and improvements to carry him through what promises to be a tactical battle. This matchup has all the makings of a memorable night, especially with the prestige of the event drawing in elite fans.

The upcoming MMA clash between Giacomo Michelis and Michael Dubois at CW 197: Unplugged offers a compelling betting landscape, with Michelis heavily favored at 1.19 and Dubois as the underdog at 4.35. These odds reflect Michelis's strong recent form and higher perceived chance of victory, but a thorough analysis of fighter profiles and external factors is essential for identifying value.

Michelis boasts an impressive 8-1 record and a three-fight win streak, with his latest victory coming via unanimous decision in June 2025. His reported improvements in wrestling, highlighted by Dan Hardy's prediction of a 'grappling-heavy war,' suggest he can dictate the pace and avoid Dubois's submission threats. Hardy, a respected voice in MMA, specifically tipped Michelis to edge out Dubois if the fight goes the distance, underscoring the Italian's evolving skill set and cardio durability.

In contrast, Michael Dubois brings a wealth of experience with a 16-11 record and a recent first-round submission win in September 2025, showcasing his prowess on the ground. Swiss Olympic judoka Sergei Müller's praise for Dubois's submission skills indicates he could capitalize if the fight hits the mat, adding a layer of risk for Michelis backers. However, Dubois's inconsistent record and Michelis's striking advantage make it challenging for the underdog to impose his game plan consistently.

External elements like the exclusive BEC Arena setting and strong Italian crowd support could psychologically boost Michelis, potentially helping him secure rounds in a close contest. The leaked sparring video involving Michelis's camp altercation introduces minor concerns about focus, but with no injury issues and both fighters making weight, it's unlikely to derail his preparation. The striker versus grappler dynamic, compounded by their prior regional circuit encounters, sets up a tactical battle where Michelis's enhanced wrestling and control should neutralize Dubois's submission attempts.

For bettors, Michelis's 1.19 odds imply a high probability of success, aligning with his consistent performance and expert endorsements. While the payoff is modest, his ability to avoid risky engagements and win via decision or stoppage makes this a prudent choice for accumulating steady returns in the long run, despite Dubois's potential for an upset.

This matchup between Giacomo Michelis and Michael Dubois offers an intriguing clash of styles, with the odds heavily favoring Michelis at 1.19 against Dubois’s 4.35. While Michelis is clearly seen as the favorite, the depth of recent news and analysis suggests this fight could be closer than the betting lines indicate. For bettors looking to maximize value, it’s crucial to weigh both the tangible and intangible factors surrounding the bout.
Giacomo Michelis enters this fight with an impressive 8-1 record and a three-fight win streak, showcasing his consistency and growth as a fighter. His last victory via unanimous decision highlights his ability to win on the scorecards, which could be pivotal if this fight goes the distance. Dan Hardy’s prediction of a “grappling-heavy war” aligns with Michelis’s recent improvements in wrestling, suggesting he might have the tools to neutralize Dubois’s ground game. Additionally, Michelis’s reputation is growing rapidly, with figures like Alessandro Del Piero publicly endorsing him. This kind of support not only boosts his profile but also adds psychological pressure on Dubois. The presence of a strong Italian fanbase at BEC Arena further tilts the scales slightly in Michelis’s favor, creating an atmosphere where he can thrive.