Betting tips from AI for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Baez, 20 January 2026.

I'm siding with Sebastian Baez as the value play at 2.31, with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard listed as the favorite at 1.68.

Baez arrives red-hot — five straight wins, a gritty Auckland comeback over Nava and a straight-sets demolition of Brooksby, plus a statement hard-court win over Fritz. Tipster Pistachio and a vocal community back the Argentine, and that momentum often flips tight AO matches.

Mpetshi Perricard brings heavy serving power and a 4-2 run recently, making this a classic power-versus-grit clash SI.com highlighted. Robinhood markets leaning Mpetshi 59¢ vs Baez 44¢ suggests the book may be overpricing the favorite; I see positive expected value on Baez given his form and matchup traits.

Cast the upset: Baez's return and confidence give him the edge on hard courts, so I recommend a straight-out bet on Sebastian Baez at 2.31.

This Australian Open clash pits the favored Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard at 1.68 against Sebastian Baez, priced at a tempting 2.31. While the bookmakers lean towards the Frenchman, the smart money, and indeed the public sentiment, seems to be squarely on Baez.

He's riding a red-hot streak with five consecutive wins, including a gritty comeback against Nava and a dominant performance over Brooksby. SI.com highlighted his recent statement hard-court win over Fritz, proving his mettle on this surface. Tipster Pistachio is eyeing a solid profit backing Baez for the upset, a sentiment echoed by the JohnnyBet community who overwhelmingly predict a straight-sets victory for the Argentine. Mpetshi Perricard is powerful, but Baez's current form and momentum make him a fantastic value play here.

Sebastian Baez is showing remarkable form with five consecutive victories, including impressive wins over Nava and Brooksby. His recent statement victory against Fritz on hard courts demonstrates his adaptability beyond his clay court comfort zone.

While Mpetshi Perricard holds the favorite status at 1.68 odds, the overwhelming community sentiment at JohnnyBet backing Baez in straight sets cannot be ignored. The Frenchman's powerful serving game typically gives him an edge, but Baez's current momentum and confidence make him the value bet at 2.31.

The clash of styles will favor Baez, whose mobility and consistency should neutralize Mpetshi Perricard's power advantage. With tipster Pistachio also backing Baez for the upset, the signs point to the Argentine continuing his hot streak and providing excellent betting value in this Australian Open matchup.

In the Australian Open men's opener, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard faces Sebastian Baez in a matchup that pits raw power against gritty consistency. Mpetshi Perricard, the big-serving Frenchman at 1.68, enters with a solid 4-2 record, including a straight-sets rout in Auckland after a tough Brisbane loss. His booming serve could dominate on the hard courts, especially as the home hopeful drawing 59¢ support in prediction markets.

But Baez, the Argentine at 2.31, is on fire with five straight wins, highlighted by a gritty Auckland comeback over Nava and a demolition of Brooksby. Tipster Pistachio backs the upset, citing Baez's recent statement hard-court win over Fritz, while the JohnnyBet community overwhelmingly favors him in straight sets. This clash of styles favors Baez's baseline tenacity to outlast Mpetshi Perricard's power, making him the value play for a profitable underdog bet.

The Australian Open clash between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sebastian Baez pits power against momentum. Mpetshi Perricard enters as the favorite at 1.68, but Baez's 2.31 odds offer enticing value for bettors.

Sebastian Baez rides a red-hot five-match win streak, including a statement hard-court victory over Fritz last week. This form has tipsters like Pistachio and the JohnnyBet community overwhelmingly backing him for an upset, with many predicting straight sets.

However, prediction markets on Robinhood slightly favor Mpetshi Perricard, reflecting his strong serving and recent bounce-back win in Auckland. The Frenchman's 4-2 record shows resilience, but his powerful game may be tested by Baez's gritty consistency.

Considering Baez's current confidence and the value in his odds, he's poised to continue his surge and secure a profitable upset in this style clash.

This Australian Open clash between Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sebastian Baez presents a fascinating battle of momentum and style. Mpetshi Perricard enters as the favorite with odds of 1.68, but Baez's recent form is impossible to ignore. The Argentine is riding a five-match winning streak, including standout performances against higher-ranked opponents like Taylor Fritz. His resilience was on full display in Auckland, where he overcame deficits and dismantled Brooksby in straight sets.

Mpetshi Perricard, meanwhile, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his dominant victory over Autistagut. However, his inconsistency—highlighted by a three-set loss to Kovacevic—raises concerns. While prediction markets slightly favor him at 59¢ versus Baez's 44¢, this seems more reflective of his reputation than current form. Tipster Pistachio’s endorsement of Baez at odds of 2.31 adds further intrigue, especially given her track record for spotting value bets.

The matchup dynamics also tilt toward Baez. His ability to adapt and counter big servers will be crucial against the powerful Frenchman. With betting sentiment from platforms like JohnnyBet heavily backing Baez in straight sets, there’s clear confidence in his capacity to deliver under pressure. At these odds, Baez represents both the smarter pick and the better value bet.