Betting tips from AI for Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks, 16 January 2026.

The market installs Golden State as the favorite at 1.68, but the line masks a real tug-of-war.
Seth Curry being out saps Golden State's spacing and bench rhythm, while New York — possibly minus Guerschon Yabusele — has surged to 25-14 and just lit up Portland from deep. DRatings gives the Knicks a 57.1% edge, and their top-tier defense and turnover generation can blunt the Warriors' assist machine.
Given the split models and the size of the underdog price, New York at 2.24 is the clear value play.

The New York Knicks are playing exceptionally well, boasting a 25-14 record and coming off a scorching road performance against Portland, hitting 17 threes at a 50% clip. Their elite defense is a game-changer, holding opponents to 46.7% shooting and leading the league in forcing turnovers. While the Golden State Warriors (22-19) have a slight home advantage and an AI model gives them a 54% win probability, DRatings presents a compelling case for the Knicks, assigning them a 57.1% chance of victory. The odds for the Knicks at 2.24 offer significant value, particularly when contrasted with the analytical models. Even with Guerschon Yabusele questionable, the Knicks' defensive prowess and recent offensive surge make them a strong play. The Warriors' bench rotations will also be tested with Seth Curry confirmed out, slightly leveling the playing field.

The Warriors enter as 1.68 favorites at Chase Center, where they've traditionally dominated despite that recent Atlanta hiccup. While their 22-19 record isn't stellar, their emphatic 119-97 win over Portland demonstrates their offensive ceiling remains championship-caliber. Seth Curry's absence hurts their bench, but Steve Kerr has consistently shown adaptability with rotations.

The Knicks' impressive 25-14 record and scorching shooting against Portland (50% from three) makes them dangerous underdogs at 2.24. However, Yabusele's questionable status significantly impacts their frontcourt depth against Golden State's pace.

While DRatings favors New York at 57.1%, the Warriors' home court advantage typically translates to exceptional ball movement and shooting efficiency. The projected tight 117-114 score feels right, but Golden State's assist-heavy offense should ultimately overwhelm the Knicks' defense in the final minutes, making the Warriors the smarter money despite the tighter spread than expected.

The NBA showdown at Chase Center pits the Golden State Warriors against the New York Knicks in what promises to be a thrilling clash of styles. Golden State, hosting with a 22-19 record, just dominated Portland 119-97 but stumbled at home to Atlanta, exposing some inconsistencies. Their home assist machine is expected to shine, with AI models giving them a slim 54% edge in a projected 117-114 nail-biter. However, the loss of Seth Curry from the bench could disrupt rotations against New York's physicality.

On the flip side, the Knicks are surging at 25-14, fresh off a 123-114 road demolition of Portland where they sank 17 threes at 50% clip. Their elite defense, leading the league in forcing turnovers and holding opponents to 46.7% shooting, gives DRatings a 57.1% win probability for New York. Guerschon Yabusele's questionable status might hurt their frontcourt, but the Knicks' momentum and defensive clampdown could neutralize Golden State's speed.

Looking at the odds—Warriors at 1.68 and Knicks at 2.24—the value screams Knicks as underdogs. New York's hot shooting and turnover-forcing prowess make them poised to steal this one on the road. For a profitable $1 bet, I'm riding the Knicks to cover and win outright, capitalizing on their defensive edge in a tight contest.

The Knicks arrive at Chase Center riding high after a dominant road win, where their 50% three-point shooting showcased offensive firepower. New York's elite defense, which leads the league in forcing turnovers and holds foes to 46.7% shooting, poses a serious threat to Golden State's home assist machine.

While the Warriors benefit from home court and AI models give them a slight edge, Seth Curry's absence disrupts their bench rotations. With Guerschon Yabusele questionable but the Knicks' core intact, their defensive strength and current form offer compelling value at 2.24, making them the smarter bet for profitability.

This matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the New York Knicks shapes up as a tantalizing clash of styles, with both teams boasting strengths that could tilt the scales. The Warriors, despite missing Seth Curry, still hold a slight edge according to AI models projecting a close 117-114 win at Chase Center. Their home-court advantage cannot be understated, especially given their assist-heavy offense that thrives in front of roaring fans. However, the Knicks counter with their elite defense, which leads the league in forcing turnovers and limiting opponents to just 46.7% shooting—a stat that could disrupt Golden State's rhythm.

While Guerschon Yabusele's status remains questionable for New York, it’s worth noting how much they’ve leaned on their three-point shooting lately, evidenced by their scorching 50% clip from deep in their recent victory over Portland. That said, the Warriors' ability to clamp down on perimeter threats might neutralize this advantage. The odds reflect this uncertainty: Golden State sits at 1.68, suggesting they're favored but not overwhelmingly so, while New York offers tempting value at 2.24. Given these dynamics, the smart money leans toward the underdog Knicks, who combine defensive tenacity with hot shooting—a formula primed to exploit any lapses by the Warriors.

With DRatings giving them a 57.1% chance to win, backing the Knicks feels like a calculated risk worth taking.