Betting tips from AI for Hailey Baptiste vs Marketa Vondrousova, 18 January 2026.

This first-round clash at Melbourne Park pits underdog Hailey Baptiste — who arrives winless this season after losses to Yulia Putintseva and Renata Zarazua — against crafty left-hander Marketa Vondrousova, who beat Liudmila Samsonova in Adelaide before a precautionary retirement with shoulder trouble. Betting models give Vondrousova a 78% chance, and bookmakers reflect the gap with odds for Baptiste at 3.86 and Vondrousova at 1.30.

Despite the shoulder caveat, Vondrousova’s superior hard-court experience, variety and recent form create clear value here. The model edge makes a $1 wager on Vondrousova the smart, positive-EV play — she should control rallies and close this without drama. I recommend backing Marketa Vondrousova.

Marketa Vondrousova enters this Australian Open clash as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. Despite recent shoulder concerns that led to her retirement in Adelaide, the Wimbledon champion's class on hard courts is undeniable. Tennis Tonic predicts she'll cruise in straight sets, a sentiment echoed by Stats Zone analysts who praise her crafty play and higher peak level. Her American opponent, Hailey Baptiste, arrives in Melbourne winless this season, suffering early exits in Brisbane and Hobart. This stark contrast in form and pedigree makes Vondrousova a clear pick.
Betting models heavily favor Vondrousova with a 78% win probability, aligning with the 1.30 odds. While Baptiste offers tempting 3.86 odds, her current trajectory suggests an upset is highly unlikely against a player of Vondrousova's caliber, even if not at 100%. The smart money is firmly on the Czech to advance.

Marketa Vondrousova enters this Australian Open clash as the clear favorite despite recent shoulder concerns. The Czech lefty showed quality in her Adelaide win over Samsonova before that retirement, demonstrating her crafty play that makes her dangerous on hard courts. Her 1.30 odds reflect her superior pedigree.

In stark contrast, Hailey Baptiste arrives in Melbourne without momentum, going winless in her 2026 season preparation. Consecutive losses to Putintseva and Zarazua in Brisbane and Hobart expose vulnerabilities in the American's game. While the 3.86 underdog odds might tempt some bettors, the gap in experience and current form is substantial.

Vondrousova's shoulder issues create slight uncertainty, but betting models still give her a 78% win probability for good reason. Her tactical acumen and higher ceiling should prove too much for Baptiste, who hasn't shown the weapons needed to trouble the crafty Czech. Expect Vondrousova to manage her shoulder carefully while securing a relatively comfortable victory.

In the Australian Open women's Round of 128, world-class talent clashes with rising grit as Marketa Vondrousova faces Hailey Baptiste on the hard courts of Melbourne Park. Vondrousova, the crafty Czech with a Wimbledon title under her belt, enters as the heavy favorite at 1.30, and for good reason. Despite a nagging shoulder issue that forced her retirement in Adelaide after a solid win over Liudmila Samsonova, her experience on hard courts and higher peak level make her a cut above. Tennis Tonic sees her cruising in straight sets, and betting models peg her win probability at a whopping 78%.

Baptiste, the 22-year-old American, is winless this season, stumbling early to Yulia Putintseva in Brisbane and Renata Zarazua in Hobart. As a +286 underdog, she's got upset potential with her powerful baseline game, but against Vondrousova's tactical wizardry, it's a tall order. The Stats Zone backs Vondrousova to prevail, emphasizing her superior play despite the injury concerns.

For bettors eyeing value, Vondrousova's odds offer a safe play to build the bankroll steadily. This matchup screams experience over raw potential—expect the veteran to advance.

Marketa Vondrousova enters as the heavy favorite with odds at 1.30, backed by Tennis Tonic and The Stats Zone predicting a straight-sets win due to her superior hard-court craft and higher peak level. Despite shoulder pain causing a recent retirement, analysts believe her experience will prevail.

Hailey Baptiste, winless this season and listed at 3.86, faces long odds as betting models give her only a 22% chance. While Vondrousova's injury adds risk, Baptiste's struggles against top competition make the Czech player the smarter, profitable bet in this Melbourne Park opener.

Marketa Vondrousova enters this Australian Open clash as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. Her recent form, despite a nagging shoulder issue, still outshines Hailey Baptiste's struggles. Vondrousova demonstrated her class by defeating Liudmila Samsonova in Adelaide, even if she later retired in her next match. That victory underscores her ability to compete at a high level on hard courts, which are notoriously demanding. Betting models reflect this dominance, assigning her a hefty 78% win probability.

On the other side, Hailey Baptiste arrives in Melbourne without a single win this season. Losses to Yulia Putintseva and Renata Zarazua highlight her inability to impose herself against even mid-tier opponents. While the odds of 3.86 might tempt bettors seeking an underdog payout, the risk is substantial given her lack of momentum and confidence. Tennis Tonic’s prediction of Vondrousova cruising in straight sets seems plausible based on current form and head-to-head dynamics.

Vondrousova’s crafty playstyle and superior experience give her a decisive edge. Even with concerns about her shoulder, her implied odds of 1.30 suggest that oddsmakers expect her to manage the situation effectively. A safer, more profitable bet lies with the favorite in this matchup.