Betting tips from AI for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje, 31 December 2025.

This is a value call: Justin Gaethje is the wager. The board makes Ilia Topuria a prohibitive favorite at 1.19, which implies about an 84% chance; that price leaves room for a smart contrarian play on Gaethje at 4.70 given the payout.

Gaethje’s recent narrow decision over Fiziev and the stylistic matchup — his relentless pressure, power, and chin — mean he is far likelier than a coin flip to land a fight-changing shot. Topuria’s aura and withdrawal from UFC 324 feed the heavy line, but praise for Topuria’s combo shows respect, not inevitability. For a $1 bet aiming to maximize profit, the upside on Gaethje outweighs the steep favorite juice.

The highly anticipated clash between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje sees Topuria entering as a substantial favorite with odds at 1.19. This isn't just bookmaker speculation; it reflects a broader consensus. Gaethje himself admits to being "thrilled yet terrified" by Topuria's devastating two-three combo, acknowledging the immense challenge.

Topuria's recent withdrawal from UFC 324, allowing Gaethje to vie for an interim title, only heightens the stakes for a future unification. The betting lines have consistently placed Topuria at 1.25 to 1.20 against Gaethje at 4.70 to 4.85, underscoring his unbeaten run and knockout victories over elite competition like Holloway and Oliveira. While Gaethje is a proven warrior, coming off a narrow decision win and a notable KO loss to Holloway, Topuria's power and "sub radar" make him a nightmare matchup, as analyst James Lynch predicts. The odds are steep, but Topuria's consistent dominance and skill set are too compelling to ignore.

Ilia Topuria enters as a significant 1.19 favorite against the veteran Justin Gaethje (4.70), and for good reason. Topuria's unblemished record and recent demolition of elite fighters like Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira showcases his devastating power and technical brilliance.

Gaethje himself acknowledged Topuria's dangerous two-three combination as "one of the best he's seen," revealing both respect and perhaps trepidation facing the champion. While Gaethje remains a legitimate threat with his highlight-reel potential, his narrow decision over Fiziev and KO loss to Holloway raise questions about his ceiling against elite talent.

The betting lines heavily favor Topuria, reflecting the consensus that his combination of striking power and submission skills presents a nightmare matchup for Gaethje. Despite Gaethje's experience and toughness, Topuria's technical superiority and finishing ability make him the clear pick, even at the steep 1.19 price.

Ilia Topuria remains the undisputed featherweight king, and this hypothetical lightweight clash against Justin Gaethje screams value on the favorite. Topuria's unbeaten run includes brutal knockouts over legends like Volkanovski and Holloway, showcasing a two-three combo that even Gaethje calls one of the best he's seen—thrilling yet terrifying, as the Iron admits. At 1.19, Topuria's power and sub skills make him a nightmare for Gaethje, whose highlight-reel KO loss to Holloway last year exposed vulnerabilities against elite strikers.

Gaethje's gritty style and recent narrow decision over Fiziev keep him dangerous, but Topuria's knockout streak over Oliveira-level talent tilts the scales. Betting lines at 1.19 for Topuria and 4.70 for Gaethje reflect his dominance, especially after pulling out of UFC 324 for personal reasons but eyeing a 2026 unification. For a $1 bet, Topuria's the profitable play—his precision edges Gaethje's chaos in a fight that could end early.

Analysts like James Lynch see Gaethje potentially edging Pimblett for an interim belt, but against Topuria, the champ's youth and finishing rate (90%+) overwhelm. This matchup favors the Georgian's technical edge, making him the smart pick to stay on top.

Ilia Topuria's devastating power and unbeaten record make him a formidable favorite against Justin Gaethje. Gaethje himself admits fear of Topuria's two-three combo, calling it one of the best he's seen.
Despite Gaethje's resilience and narrow win over Fiziev, his highlight-reel KO loss to Holloway exposes vulnerabilities that Topuria's precision striking can exploit. The betting lines at 1.19 for Topuria and 4.70 for Gaethje reflect the champ's dominance, with analysts noting his sub radar and power as a nightmare matchup.
Topuria's pullout from UFC 324 sets the stage for this clash, where his knockout streak over legends like Volkanovski and Oliveira suggests he'll continue his reign.

Ilia Topuria enters this matchup as a massive favorite with odds of 1.19, and for good reason. The Georgian champion boasts an unblemished record, having dismantled legends like Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira in devastating fashion. His two-three combo has drawn universal praise, even from Justin Gaethje himself, who openly admitted being both thrilled and terrified by its potential. This psychological edge could weigh heavily on Gaethje’s approach.

On the other hand, Gaethje’s recent performances have been a mixed bag. While he eked out a narrow decision win over Beneil Dariush earlier this year, his highlight-reel knockout loss to Holloway remains fresh in fans’ minds. At odds of 4.70, Gaethje represents a tempting underdog bet, but his style may not be enough to counter Topuria’s precision striking and grappling acumen. Gaethje thrives in chaos, yet Topuria’s composure and defensive prowess make it unlikely he’ll allow the fight to descend into Gaethje’s preferred realm of pandemonium.

Topuria’s withdrawal from UFC 324 due to personal reasons might raise slight durability concerns, but his return appears laser-focused. Analysts widely agree that his power and submission threat create a nightmare scenario for any lightweight contender. Given the overwhelming skill gap and Gaethje’s inconsistent recent form, betting on Topuria seems like the most logical choice despite the steep odds.