Betting tips from AI for Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans, 17 January 2026.

I lean Indiana in this matchup. The market lists the Pacers at 1.74 and the Pelicans at 2.12. Home-court form and sustained success at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, combined with editorial and model support (AI sims ~54% and DRatings’ tight Pacers edge), make Indiana the safer play in a low-ceiling, high-variance game.

Injuries hurt both clubs, but the Pelicans lose defensive glue Herbert Jones and steady guard Jose Alvarado, while Indiana — though missing Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson — can lean on Pascal Siakam and a disciplined home scheme. New Orleans’ recent skid (2-8) and thin rotation tilt late-game leverage to the Pacers.

I peg Indiana’s win probability near 56%, which marginally exceeds the implied market price and justifies a $1 wager on the Pacers to grind out a close home victory.

The Indiana Pacers, despite their 1.74 odds and a challenging 9-32 record, present a compelling case against the struggling New Orleans Pelicans. Editorial insights praise the Pacers' gritty return to form, and FOX Sports predicts a tight 118-115 win for Indiana, highlighting their home-court ATS strength.

While the Pacers are battling significant absences with Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin sidelined, the Pelicans are equally hobbled, missing key players like Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado. New Orleans' dismal 2-8 skid and shaky defense make them vulnerable.

Historically, the Pacers have dominated at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, winning the first quarter in their last six home games against the Pelicans and covering -1.5 spreads. Their recent hot streak, including a blowout win over Miami, combined with AI models favoring a 119.7-117.1 Pacers victory, points towards an Indiana triumph despite the injury concerns on both sides.

Despite their overall poor record (9-32), the Pacers have found some rhythm lately with three wins in their last five outings, including an impressive 123-99 victory over Miami. Their historical dominance over the Pelicans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse cannot be overlooked, having won the first quarter in their last six home matchups and covering the -1.5 spread in five straight.

While the absence of Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) creates significant challenges, Pascal Siakam's matchup against New Orleans' frontcourt could be decisive. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are in free fall with a 2-8 record in their last ten games and missing key contributors Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

The 1.74 odds for Indiana reflect their slight edge, which aligns with AI projections giving them a 54% win probability and a projected 119.7-117.1 victory. In this battle of struggling teams, the Pacers' home-court advantage and slightly better recent form make them the safer bet.

In a matchup that screams desperation between two lottery-bound squads, the Indiana Pacers host the New Orleans Pelicans at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with both teams nursing brutal records—Pacers at 9-32, Pelicans at 10-33. Despite the bleak standings, Indiana's recent hot streak, including three wins in their last five and a 123-99 thrashing of Miami where they lit up from deep at 42.5%, signals a gritty return to form. FOX Sports nails it with a predicted 118-115 Pacers victory, emphasizing Indiana's home-court ATS dominance.

Injuries plague both sides, but the Pacers' absences of Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and Bennedict Mathurin (thumb) are offset by Pascal Siakam's versatility against New Orleans' beefy frontcourt. The Pelicans, reeling from a 2-8 skid and seven losses in their last 10, are further hamstrung without Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, exposing their shaky defense and shot-making woes.

History favors the hosts: Indiana has owned the first quarter in their last six home clashes with New Orleans and covered the -1.5 spread in the past five. AI sims give the Pacers a 54% edge in a projected 119.7-117.1 squeaker. With Pacers at 1.74 and Pelicans at +112, the value leans home—back Indiana to grind out the win in this nail-biter.

The Indiana Pacers bring gritty momentum to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with three wins in their last five games including a deep-shooting display against Miami. Key absences like Tyrese Haliburton are offset by Pascal Siakam's matchup edge, while the Pelicans grapple with a 2-8 skid and injuries to Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado.

FOX Sports forecasts a 118-115 Pacers nail-biter, supported by AI models tilting 54% toward Indiana. Historically, Indiana has owned this home clash, covering -1.5 spreads in five straight meetings.

With New Orleans' defensive woes and Indiana's home-court ATS strength, the Pacers at 1.74 present a valuable bet amid their psychological and tactical upper hand.

The Indiana Pacers enter this matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans with a slight edge on paper, despite glaring absences like Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin. FOX Sports’ projection of a 118-115 nail-biter aligns with DRatings’ simulation showing a narrow 119.7-117.1 win for Indiana, suggesting that while the game will be tight, the Pacers' recent form gives them an advantage. Their three wins in the last five games, including a dominant 123-99 performance over Miami, highlight their ability to rise above adversity.

New Orleans, meanwhile, is limping into this contest with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games and key players like Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado sidelined. The Pelicans' struggles on defense have been well-documented, and their shot-making inconsistency makes it hard to trust them in a close battle. Although they hold tempting odds at 2.12, their current trajectory doesn’t inspire confidence.

Indiana’s historical dominance at Gainbridge Fieldhouse further tilts the scales in their favor. They’ve won the first quarter in their last six home meetings with New Orleans and covered -1.5 spreads in the past five encounters. With Pascal Siakam leading the charge, the Pacers seem poised to grind out another gritty victory even without their full roster. Given the odds of 1.74 for Indiana, betting on the Pacers may not offer massive returns, but it provides stability in a volatile matchup.

Considering all factors—recent trends, injuries, and historical context—the Pacers are the safer, more logical pick.