Betting tips from AI for Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan, 31 December 2025.

Islam Makhachev remains the smart money here. He closed 2025 as MMA Fighting’s Fighter of the Year and owns the 2019 unanimous decision over Arman — a pedigree that shows up in the betting lines. Backing the champ at 1.30 is a value play for small, steady profit: elite wrestling, fight IQ and recent momentum make him the likeliest path to a clear decision or late stoppage.

Arman Tsarukyan carries danger and upside at 3.45, but the headlines suggest his camp priorities are scattered and Makhachev has been ultra-selective with his returns. For a $1 wager aiming to preserve bankroll while earning reliable returns, the favorite is the optimal choice.

Islam Makhachev, fresh off snagging MMA Fighting's Fighter of the Year award for 2025, enters this highly anticipated rematch as a dominant force. His stellar run of title defenses solidifies his position as the premier lightweight. The bookmakers agree, listing him as a significant favorite at 1.30. While fans still buzz about their 2019 thriller where Makhachev edged Arman Tsarukyan by a unanimous 30-27 decision, it's crucial to remember Makhachev's evolution since then. Tsarukyan has undoubtedly improved, as indicated by the 'electric rematch stakes,' but Makhachev has reached an elite tier, strategically planning his next moves for 'bigger lightweight showdowns.' Despite Tsarukyan's potential for an upset at 3.45, Makhachev's current form, championship pedigree, and focus on maintaining his sharpness make him the clear pick. He has proven his ability to adapt and overcome, even against a tough opponent like Tsarukyan.

Islam Makhachev enters this rematch as the clear favorite at 1.30, and for good reason. Fresh off claiming Fighter of the Year honors for 2025, Makhachev's championship run has been nothing short of dominant. Their first meeting in 2019 saw Makhachev secure a unanimous 30-27 decision victory, establishing technical superiority that's only improved since.

Tsarukyan has certainly evolved as a fighter, offering attractive underdog value at 3.45. However, his camp situation raises concerns – the news of him shutting down Shara Bullet's warning while mentioning he's already in camp elsewhere suggests possible divided focus.

Makhachev strategically ruling out a January return indicates he's taking this matchup seriously, allowing proper preparation time. His championship experience and proven ability to neutralize Tsarukyan's strengths make him the sensible pick despite the chalk odds.

In the electrifying world of MMA, the lightweight division is set for a seismic rematch as Islam Makhachev defends his throne against Arman Tsarukyan on New Year's Eve 2025. Makhachev, fresh off clinching MMA Fighting's Fighter of the Year award for 2025, has been on an unstoppable tear with multiple title defenses that showcase his grappling mastery and striking precision. Their 2019 clash was a barnburner, with Makhachev grinding out a unanimous 30-27 decision, proving he can handle Tsarukyan's relentless pressure.

Tsarukyan, the rising contender, has shown flashes of brilliance, but Makhachev's recent dominance and strategic patience—ruling out a rushed January return to stay razor-sharp—give him the edge. The odds reflect this: Makhachev at 1.30 is the clear favorite, while Tsarukyan sits at 3.45, tempting value hunters. A draw at 33.00 feels like a long shot in this high-stakes grudge match.

Betting $1 here? I'm all in on Makhachev to repeat history. His superior experience and current form make this a profitable lock, potentially netting you a modest but steady return while building your bankroll for bigger swings.

Islam Makhachev enters this rematch riding high as MMA Fighting's 2025 Fighter of the Year, cementing his dominance with a stellar title run that justifies his heavy favorite status at 1.30. Their 2019 thriller saw Makhachev edge Tsarukyan via unanimous decision, and with Tsarukyan distracted by external warnings from Shara Bullet, focus could be compromised.
Makhachev's strategic move to rule out a January return ensures he's sharp for this lightweight showdown, making the champ the profitable pick. While Tsarukyan at 3.45 offers underdog allure, Makhachev's form and pedigree tilt the scales decisively in his favor.

Islam Makhachev enters this rematch against Arman Tsarukyan as the clear favorite, and for good reason. With a dominant run of title defenses and his recent Fighter of the Year accolade, Makhachev has proven himself nearly untouchable in the lightweight division. His grappling-heavy style overwhelmed Tsarukyan in their 2019 bout, where he secured a unanimous decision victory. While Tsarukyan has shown flashes of brilliance since then, his inability to focus on this fight due to commitments elsewhere raises concerns about his preparation.

The odds reflect Makhachev's dominance, with him sitting at 1.30 compared to Tsarukyan's 3.45. Though the payout on Makhachev is modest, his consistency makes him a safer bet. A draw, priced at 33.00, feels like a long shot given both fighters' aggressive tendencies. Betting on Tsarukyan might seem tempting for underdog enthusiasts, but his current distractions could leave him vulnerable against a fighter of Makhachev's caliber.

Makhachev’s strategy of avoiding January fights to stay sharp for bigger showdowns also signals his intent to make a statement here. Expect another masterclass performance that cements his legacy further.