Betting tips from AI for Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira, 31 December 2025.

I back Islam Makhachev to retain the lightweight crown. He comes in on a wave of five straight submission wins and already choked out Oliveira at UFC 280 with that brutal arm-triangle, and bookmakers have made him a heavy favorite 1.13 while Oliveira sits well behind at 6.10.

This rematch is wrestling versus sharper striking. Makhachev’s relentless top control, takedown timing and scramble IQ should neutralize Oliveira’s submission threats again. Oliveira’s improved standup makes it competitive on the feet, but most analysts expect Makhachev’s ground game to decide the fight — a conservative, high-probability play for bettors.

The highly anticipated rematch at UFC 311 sees Islam Makhachev, a dominant force, once again facing Charles Oliveira. Makhachev enters this bout looking unstoppable, riding a wave of five straight submission wins, including his decisive victory over Oliveira at UFC 280 via arm-triangle. Pundits are buzzing about his wrestling edge, which proved crucial in their last encounter, dropping Oliveira cold before securing the finish. While Charles Oliveira has shown sharper striking lately, aiming to flip the script, it's Makhachev's precision grappling and suffocating top control that remain the biggest threats. His ability to dictate where the fight takes place, coupled with his relentless submission game, makes him an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve. Despite the heavily favored odds of 1.13, the probability of Makhachev retaining his title is exceptionally high. His dedication, highlighted by his tribute to his late coach, adds another layer to his mental fortitude. Expect Makhachev to control the distance, secure takedowns, and eventually find another finish or dominate to a clear decision.

The rematch between Makhachev and Oliveira presents a clear picture based on their first encounter. Makhachev's dominance at UFC 280 with that arm-triangle submission showcased his superior grappling, and he's only improved since then with five straight submission victories.

While Oliveira at 6.10 offers tempting underdog value, the reality is that Makhachev's wrestling advantage creates an insurmountable problem. What's particularly concerning for Oliveira backers is that Makhachev didn't just out-grapple him—he dropped him standing before finishing on the ground, demonstrating complete dominance in all phases.

Oliveira's improved striking might keep things competitive early, but Makhachev at 1.13, despite the steep price, represents the safer investment. His precision grappling, combined with enhanced striking, makes him the rightful favorite to retain his lightweight crown in this high-stakes rematch.

Islam Makhachev enters this UFC 311 lightweight title rematch as the clear favorite, with odds at 1.13 reflecting his dominance. After choking out Oliveira with a brutal arm-triangle at UFC 280, Makhachev has notched five straight submission wins, showcasing unstoppable grappling precision honed under the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, to whom he dedicated that iconic victory.

Oliveira, at 6.10, brings sharper striking and relentless submission hunting, aiming to flip the script from his snapped 11-fight streak. Yet, pundits highlight Makhachev's wrestling edge, which dropped Oliveira cold before sealing the ground game last time.

This clash pits Makhachev's chess-like control against Oliveira's chaos, but the champ's recent form screams repeat performance. For bettors eyeing value, Makhachev's path to victory looks locked in, making him the smart play despite the juice.

Islam Makhachev looks unstoppable heading into this UFC 311 rematch, with five straight submission wins including a brutal arm-triangle choke over Charles Oliveira at UFC 280. Pundits buzz about his wrestling edge, noting how he dropped Oliveira cold before finishing on the ground.

Charles Oliveira aims to flip the script with sharper striking, but Makhachev's precision grappling and emotional drive—highlighted by his tribute to his late coach—pose a significant challenge. The odds favor Makhachev heavily at 1.13 versus Oliveira's 6.10, reflecting his dominance and higher probability of victory.

Islam Makhachev enters this UFC 311 rematch as a massive favorite with odds of 1.13, and for good reason. His grappling dominance was on full display during their first encounter at UFC 280, where he submitted Charles Oliveira with a suffocating arm-triangle choke. Makhachev's wrestling pedigree under the tutelage of the late Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov has only grown sharper, making him nearly impossible to take down. While Oliveira's striking has improved since their last bout, it’s hard to see how he can keep the fight standing against someone with Makhachev’s takedown accuracy and control.

Oliveira, listed at 6.10, will undoubtedly look to exploit any opening in Makhachev’s standup game. However, his path to victory seems narrow. Even if Oliveira lands some clean strikes early, Makhachev’s ability to close distance and drag the fight to the mat is virtually unmatched. Pundits have already highlighted how Makhachev dropped Oliveira cold before finishing him on the ground last time—history could repeat itself here.

The emotional stakes are high too. Makhachev continues to honor his coach’s legacy while pursuing new challenges, which fuels his drive to dominate. Oliveira, though resilient, hasn’t shown enough evolution in areas that matter most against an opponent like Makhachev. With these dynamics in mind, betting on Makhachev feels like the safest route despite the steep odds.