Betting tips from AI for Islam Makhachev vs Ilia Topuria, 31 December 2025.

Bookies have this as a knife-edge superfight — Ilia Topuria is a slim favorite 1.88 while Islam Makhachev sits equal at 1.88, but the market masks meaningful edges.
Makhachev arrives off a composed decision win over Jack Della Maddalena at MSG and has seamlessly carried his wrestling and pace up after vacating lightweight. Topuria’s shocking 155 grab and a domestic-abuse hiatus raise rust and focus questions; that disruption matters most against a relentless grappler. I expect Islam to pressure, control position, and either grind a decision or secure a late finish, making him the profitable lean here.

This superfight between Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria is brewing with bad blood, as Makhachev vows to settle their differences after Topuria's provocations. The bookies have set razor-thin odds, with both fighters at 1.88, signaling a truly competitive matchup. However, recent developments paint a clearer picture. Islam Makhachev has been incredibly active and successful, recently cruising to welterweight gold against Jack Della Maddalena. This move up in weight class and immediate success demonstrates his elite form and versatility.

In stark contrast, Ilia Topuria's preparation might be severely hampered. Reports indicate he's been 'on ice' due to domestic abuse claims, forcing a fight hiatus. Such a layoff, especially under a cloud of controversy, could lead to significant ring rust and mental distraction, leaving him vulnerable. Makhachev, dismissing Topuria's threats as 'sour grapes,' appears focused and ready, coming off a strong performance. Given Makhachev's superior recent activity, proven success at a higher weight, and Topuria's potential rust and distractions, the Dagestani champion holds a critical edge.

This potential Makhachev-Topuria clash carries significant intrigue but several factors point to Makhachev having the edge. The domestic abuse allegations sidelining Topuria create a concerning layoff that could impact his conditioning against someone of Makhachev's caliber. While bookmakers have this as a virtual coin flip at 1.88 for both fighters, Makhachev's recent welterweight success against Jack Della Maddalena demonstrates his versatility across weight classes.

Topuria's trash talk toward Makhachev's camp and Khabib might indicate psychological warfare, but it could backfire against Makhachev's composed fighting style. Islam's Dagestani wrestling pedigree presents a stylistic nightmare for many opponents, and while Topuria has explosive power, Makhachev's ground control would likely neutralize Topuria's striking advantages.

Makhachev's championship experience and ability to execute calculated gameplans make him the smarter bet despite the even odds. His welterweight transition shows his physical strength continues to develop, giving him a slight but meaningful edge in this hypothetical superfight.

In this electrifying hypothetical superfight on New Year's Eve 2025, Islam Makhachev faces Ilia Topuria in a clash of titans across weight classes. Makhachev, the Dagestani machine, has been on a tear, cruising to welterweight gold via decision over Jack Della Maddalena at MSG after vacating the lightweight throne that Topuria shockingly claimed. His grappling wizardry and endurance make him a nightmare for anyone, especially with vows to clash anywhere amid their bad blood—Topuria's taunts at Khabib Nurmagomedov only fueling the fire.

Topuria, the featherweight kingpin, brings explosive power and confidence, but ugly domestic abuse claims have sidelined him, potentially leaving him rusty against Makhachev's precision. Bookies see it razor-thin at 1.88 for both, signaling a coin flip, but Islam's experience in deeper waters and dismissal of Topuria's 'sour grapes' threats tip the scales.

Betting $1 on Makhachev at 1.88 looks profitable—his versatility and momentum should grind out a win, possibly by sub or decision, in a fight that explodes their rivalry into legend.

The bookmakers' dead-even odds at 1.88 for each fighter highlight the perceived parity in this superfight. Yet, Islam Makhachev enters with significant momentum, fresh off a welterweight title win at MSG, while Ilia Topuria's hiatus due to personal issues risks ring rust. Makhachev's dismissive confidence toward Topuria's taunts, calling them 'sour grapes,' signals a champion laser-focused on dominance. His proven grappling pedigree and experience against elite competition should allow him to control the pace and grind out a decision.

The stage is set for a high-stakes grudge match between Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, two fighters with undeniable bad blood simmering between them. Both men are coming into this bout with chips on their shoulders—Makhachev, the Dagestani wrestling prodigy, has been vocal about dismissing Topuria's antics as mere jealousy over his connection to Khabib Nurmagomedov. Meanwhile, Topuria, who recently captured the lightweight strap in dramatic fashion, seems eager to prove himself against one of the sport’s elite. However, recent domestic abuse allegations surrounding Topuria have sidelined him, potentially leaving rust that could hinder his performance.

From a betting perspective, the odds tell an intriguing story. With both fighters listed at 1.88, bookmakers see this as a razor-thin matchup. Yet, Makhachev’s proven track record speaks volumes—he successfully transitioned to welterweight by defeating Jack Della Maddalena via decision, showcasing his adaptability and ring IQ. His relentless grappling style has consistently overwhelmed opponents, and he thrives under pressure. While Topuria is undoubtedly dangerous, his time away from competition raises questions about his sharpness entering such a pivotal fight.

Considering these factors, backing Islam Makhachev appears to be the smarter wager. His experience, coupled with his ability to neutralize explosive strikers like Topuria, gives him the edge in what promises to be a fiercely contested battle.