Betting tips from AI for Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai, 22 November 2025.

This matchup reads like a classic crossroads fight: a surging finisher in Myktybek Orolbai versus a proud veteran in Jack Hermansson making a risky late-career pivot. The market has already taken a stand with Orolbai priced at 1.41, Hermansson at 3.05, and the draw at 50.00. When you strip away the narratives, the core handicapping pillars point in the same direction: durability, form, and stylistic pressure all favor the favorite.

Hermansson is tough and experienced, but he is 37 and only six months removed from a brutal first-round knockout. Analysts like Michael Bisping have openly questioned his ability to absorb punishment right now, and Ariel Helwani underscored the gamble of cutting to welterweight for the first time after that kind of loss. Historically, Hermansson’s best work has come behind a long jab, opportunistic grappling chains, and veteran savvy. But those strengths are dampened if his reaction time and chin are compromised by the cut and recent KO.

On the other side, Orolbai brings the kind of relentless wrestling and finishing instincts that make veterans uncomfortable. He’s riding momentum from a June submission win, and his move to welterweight removes the grind of past weight cuts, which should bolster both gas tank and durability. His approach—pressure entries, chain wrestling, smothering top control, and fast transitions to the back—targets exactly the kind of defensive shells that a cautious, post-KO opponent tends to adopt.

Stylistically, the clearest danger for Hermansson is early and consistent mat returns. If Orolbai puts him on the fence, he can force bad shots or hurried clinch breaks where counters flow. Hermansson does have a live guillotine and could weaponize length on the feet, but to cash at 3.05 he likely needs a clean momentum swing—either a surgically timed submission or a damaging counter while Orolbai overcommits. Those are thinner paths against a composed wrestler with rapidly improving strike entries.

From a numbers perspective, 1.41 implies roughly a 71% win probability. Given form, age, quick turnaround from a KO, and stylistic edge, I set Orolbai closer to 75–77% (a fair line around -315 to -335). At a $1 stake, the payout on 1.41 is about $0.415 profit; with a 76% true probability, the expected value is roughly +$0.07 per dollar—solid for a favorite in a volatile sport.

The draw at 50.00 looks tempting on sticker price but is historically rare in MMA and would be a longshot fade. Hermansson at 3.05 only becomes attractive if you believe his real win chance is 33% or better; with the KO hangover and weight drop, that threshold is hard to justify.

Recommendation: Bet Myktybek Orolbai moneyline at 1.41. The matchup construction, recent form, and improved weight management all point to Orolbai controlling exchanges and finding dominant positions, with stoppage equity as a kicker. This is chalk, but it’s justified chalk with positive expected value.

This welterweight clash presents a classic narrative of a rising contender against a veteran at a career crossroads, and all signs point towards a changing of the guard. Jack Hermansson, a long-time middleweight staple, is taking a massive risk. At 37 years old, he's not only dropping down a weight class for the first time in the UFC but is also doing so just six months after suffering a devastating first-round knockout loss. This combination is a significant red flag. A brutal KO can permanently affect a fighter's durability, and a strenuous weight cut, especially late in one's career, can further deplete the chin and gas tank. Experts like Michael Bisping have voiced serious concerns, suggesting this rapid return against a dangerous finisher is ill-advised.

On the other side, Myktybek Orolbai is a fighter surging with momentum. With a strong 3-1 record in the UFC, he has established himself as a potent threat with dominant wrestling and a keen ability to find the finish, as evidenced by his recent first-round submission victory. The most telling factor in this matchup might be the weight dynamics. While Hermansson drains himself to make 170 lbs, Orolbai is moving *up* from lightweight. This move eliminates a historically difficult weight cut for him, meaning he should enter the octagon stronger, more durable, and with a deeper gas tank. He will be the fresher, more powerful fighter.

The betting odds reflect this reality, with Orolbai positioned as a significant favorite at 1.41. While Hermansson's experience makes his 3.05 odds tempting for a value bet, the physical risks he's undertaking are too substantial to ignore. Orolbai's aggressive, wrestling-heavy style is a nightmare matchup for someone whose resilience is in question. Expect Orolbai to press the action early, test Hermansson's chin, and likely drag the fight to the mat where he can implement his suffocating ground game for a stoppage victory.

This welterweight bout presents a compelling narrative of a veteran fighter attempting reinvention against a surging contender. Jack Hermansson's decision to drop to welterweight at 37 years old, just six months after suffering a devastating first-round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues, raises significant red flags about his current state and future prospects.

The timing of this fight is particularly concerning for Hermansson. Six months is a relatively short recovery period following a brutal knockout, and the added stress of cutting to a new weight class compounds the risk. His recent 4-5 UFC record reflects a fighter who has struggled to maintain elite-level performance, and the psychological impact of that knockout loss cannot be understated. When veteran fighters begin experimenting with dramatic weight cuts late in their careers, it often signals desperation rather than strategic evolution.

Myktybek Orolbai represents everything Hermansson doesn't want to face right now. The Kyrgyzstani fighter is riding momentum from a dominant first-round submission victory over Tofiq Musayev and has established himself as a legitimate finishing threat with a 3-1 UFC record since 2023. His wrestling-heavy approach and aggressive finishing instincts make him a nightmare matchup for a potentially compromised Hermansson.

The move to welterweight actually benefits Orolbai more than his opponent. Reports indicate he previously struggled with brutal weight cuts, and competing at a more natural weight should enhance his performance and durability. Meanwhile, Hermansson faces the unknown challenges of fighting smaller, faster opponents while potentially being weakened by his own cut.

Michael Bisping's concerns about Hermansson's condition and readiness carry significant weight, given his intimate knowledge of the sport's demands. The bookmakers have installed Orolbai as a substantial favorite at 1.41, while Hermansson sits at 3.05. This spread accurately reflects the risk-reward dynamic of backing a potentially compromised veteran against a hungry, ascending contender.

Orolbai's finishing ability makes him an excellent bet to not just win, but to do so decisively. Hermansson's questionable chin condition after the recent knockout, combined with the physical toll of a new weight cut, creates multiple pathways for Orolbai to secure a stoppage victory.

As we gear up for this intriguing UFC welterweight clash at UFC Qatar on November 22, 2025, between Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai, the betting landscape is buzzing with anticipation. Hermansson, the veteran Swede, is stepping down to welterweight for the first time at age 37, which adds a layer of uncertainty to his performance. Coming off a devastating first-round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues just six months ago, questions about his chin and recovery are rampant. Analysts like Michael Bisping have voiced concerns, suggesting Hermansson might be on the brink of retirement, especially facing a finisher like Orolbai.

On the flip side, Orolbai is riding high with a 3-1 UFC record since 2023, his only blemish a wild loss to Mateusz Rebecki. His recent first-round submission over Tofiq Musayev showcases his dominant wrestling and finishing prowess. Moving up to welterweight should alleviate his past weight-cutting struggles, potentially making him even more explosive. The odds reflect this momentum, with Orolbai as the heavy favorite at 1.41, while Hermansson sits at 3.05 as the underdog, and a draw is a long shot at 50.00.

Diving deeper, Hermansson's recent form is troubling—a 4-5 record in his last nine UFC fights doesn't inspire confidence. His durability has been tested, and at 37, dropping weight classes could either rejuvenate him or expose vulnerabilities. Orolbai, younger and hungrier, brings an aggressive style that's perfect for exploiting any hesitation from Hermansson. Pundits like Ariel Helwani call this matchup 'high-risk, high-drama,' and I agree; it's a classic veteran vs. rising star scenario.

From a betting perspective, backing Orolbai seems like the smart play for profitability. His wrestling edge could neutralize Hermansson's striking, leading to a ground-and-pound or submission win. Bisping predicts a stoppage, and given Hermansson's KO history, that's plausible. If you're eyeing value, Orolbai by finish might offer better returns than the moneyline. However, don't sleep on Hermansson entirely—his experience could lead to an upset if he catches Orolbai early, but the risk feels too high.

Overall, this fight screams opportunity for bettors who favor the favorite. With no reported injuries and Orolbai's momentum, I'm confident in placing that $1 bet on him to maximize earnings. The atmosphere in Qatar will be electric, but expect Orolbai to emerge victorious, potentially boosting his profile in the division.

The upcoming UFC welterweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai is generating significant buzz, with betting markets heavily favoring Orolbai. Hermansson, a veteran fighter, is making a risky move by dropping to welterweight at 37 years old, just six months after a brutal first-round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues. This quick turnaround raises serious questions about his recovery and chin durability, especially against a finisher like Orolbai. Analysts like Michael Bisping have voiced concerns, suggesting Hermansson may be nearing the end of his career and predicting a stoppage loss, which adds to the skepticism around his chances.

Myktybek Orolbai, in contrast, is riding a wave of momentum with a recent first-round submission win and a 3-1 UFC record since 2023. His dominant wrestling and aggressive style make him a formidable opponent, and his move up to welterweight could eliminate past weight-cut issues, potentially enhancing his performance. Commentator Ariel Helwani has highlighted the 'high-risk, high-drama' aspect of this fight, emphasizing Orolbai's ability to capitalize on Hermansson's vulnerabilities. With no major injuries reported, Orolbai's consistency and finishing power position him as the clear front-runner.

From a betting standpoint, the odds at 1.41 for Orolbai and 3.05 for Hermansson reflect the market's confidence in the favorite. While Hermansson's underdog odds might tempt some bettors, his recent form and the physical toll of his weight cut make an upset unlikely. Orolbai's high probability of winning, backed by his skill set and favorable circumstances, offers solid value for a profitable bet, even with the lower payout. In the long run, backing Orolbai aligns with the data and expert insights, minimizing risk while aiming for steady returns.

The upcoming welterweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Myktybek Orolbai presents a fascinating clash of styles, narratives, and betting opportunities. On one hand, we have Hermansson, a seasoned fighter making his welterweight debut at age 37 after a devastating knockout loss in his last fight. On the other, Orolbai enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.41, riding high on momentum from a recent submission win and an impressive UFC record since 2023.
Hermansson’s move to welterweight is both intriguing and risky. While this could potentially revitalize his career by allowing him to compete at a more natural weight, it also raises questions about his durability. His last outing ended in a first-round KO against Gregory Rodrigues, which has left analysts like Michael Bisping openly questioning whether he can still handle elite competition. Ariel Helwani’s comments further highlight the drama surrounding this matchup, framing it as “high-risk, high-drama.” At odds of 3.05, Hermansson represents a tempting underdog bet for those willing to gamble on his experience and adaptability. However, his 4-5 UFC record over recent years and his struggles against aggressive opponents suggest that his best days might be behind him.
Conversely, Myktybek Orolbai is stepping into what feels like a career-defining moment. With a dominant wrestling base and a penchant for finishes, Orolbai has positioned himself as a rising star in the welterweight division. His June submission victory over Tofiq Musayev showcased not only his technical prowess but also his mental toughness. The fact that he no longer needs to endure brutal weight cuts—a factor that plagued his earlier performances—could significantly enhance his stamina and overall effectiveness in this fight. Betting markets clearly favor Orolbai, reflecting confidence in his ability to dominate through wrestling or secure another stoppage win.
From a strategic standpoint, Hermansson’s grappling defense will be crucial if he hopes to survive Orolbai’s relentless pressure. However, given his recent knockout loss and advancing age, it’s fair to wonder how well he’ll hold up against Orolbai’s explosiveness. Additionally, Orolbai’s only UFC loss came in a wild brawl, suggesting that while he may take risks, he thrives in chaotic exchanges—an area where Hermansson might struggle due to lingering effects from his previous defeat.