Betting tips from AI for Jackson McVey vs Zachary Reese, 08 November 2025.

UFC Vegas 111 has been reshuffled, and the new matchup pits Jackson McVey against late-replacement Zachary Reese after Donte “Lockjaw” Johnson was removed from the card. The market has reacted decisively: Reese sits as a sizable favorite at 1.33, McVey is the underdog at 3.50, and the Draw is a distant longshot at 50.00. Those prices translate to rough implied probabilities of about 75% for Reese, 29% for McVey, and 2% for a draw, before accounting for the bookmaker’s margin.

If we strip out some of the vig, the no-vig picture looks closer to ~71% Reese vs ~27% McVey (with the draw under 2%). That tells us the favorite is being taxed, which is common in MMA markets—especially on fight week. But the key contextual wrinkle is that Reese is stepping in as a replacement. Short-notice call-ups often deal with compressed game planning, a tougher weight cut, and less time to tailor cardio for three hard rounds. Meanwhile, although McVey’s opponent changed, he’s been on a full training schedule and can focus on a clean, measured start to test the newcomer’s pace and timing, or conversely come out hot to maximize early volatility. Either way, opponent changes increase variance—and variance is the underdog’s friend at this price.

At 1.33, you’re essentially paying for Reese to deliver cleanly more than three out of four times. That may capture his baseline skill advantage, but it leaves little margin for the intangibles that typically accompany late replacements: unfamiliar looks, uneven preparation windows, and round-to-round unpredictability. By contrast, McVey at 3.50 only needs to clear a true win rate above ~28.6% to be a positive-expectation bet. Given the circumstance shift—and the market’s lean toward the favorite—that threshold feels attainable enough to justify a small stab on the dog.

As for the Draw at 50.00, it’s a low-percentage outcome in modern MMA scoring and usually not worth chasing unless the matchup screams stalemate (this one doesn’t on paper). The smarter angle is price-based: fade the favorite tax and take the situational value on the underdog.

Recommendation: Risk $1 on Jackson McVey moneyline at 3.50. Reese is rightly respected, but the combination of short-notice dynamics and inflated favorite pricing tilts the expected value toward the underdog. Call: McVey in the upset.

This middleweight clash at UFC Vegas 111 presents a fascinating scenario for bettors, born out of last-minute changes. Jackson McVey was originally slated to face Donte Johnson, but with Johnson out, Zachary Reese steps in. While taking a fight on short notice is typically a major red flag, the context here is crucial. The betting lines tell a story, installing Zachary Reese as a massive favorite with odds around 1.33, while McVey sits as a significant underdog at 3.50. This isn't just a whim; it's a reflection of a perceived chasm in skill and athletic potential.

Zachary "Savage" Reese is a product of Dana White's Contender Series, where he showcased his terrifying finishing instincts. With a professional record comprised entirely of first-round finishes, his game plan is no secret: he comes out to destroy his opponent from the opening bell. While he suffered a brutal knockout loss in his UFC debut, that single blemish doesn't erase the fact that he is a physically imposing, explosive athlete with legitimate one-shot power and a slick submission game. He is the definition of a 'kill or be killed' fighter, which makes him incredibly dangerous, especially in the first five minutes.

Jackson McVey, on the other hand, is a regional-level talent getting his shot on the big stage. While he has been through a full training camp, that entire camp was designed to solve the puzzle of a completely different fighter. The sudden switch to preparing for a hyper-aggressive finisher like Reese is a tactical nightmare. McVey's best path to victory would be to weather the early storm, drag Reese into deep water, and exploit the potential cardio issues of a short-notice opponent. However, surviving that initial onslaught is a monumental task.

The market's confidence in Reese, reflected in the 1.33 odds, suggests that the talent disparity is too vast to ignore. Reese's style is perfectly suited for this scenario. He doesn't need 15 minutes of gas in the tank if he can secure a finish in under five, which is his specialty. Expect Reese to come out fast, using his size and aggression to immediately put McVey on the back foot. Whether by knockout or submission, the most probable outcome is Reese adding another first-round finish to his resume and validating the bookmakers' lopsided odds.

The upcoming MMA clash at UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, pits Jackson McVey against Zachary Reese in what promises to be an intriguing middleweight bout. With the original matchup disrupted by Donte “Lockjaw” Johnson's failure to clear commission requirements, Reese steps in as a late replacement, adding an element of unpredictability to the fight. This change could play a significant role, as both fighters now have limited time to adjust their game plans, but Reese's experience might give him the edge.

Jackson McVey, coming in as the underdog with odds of 3.50, has shown flashes of brilliance in his recent outings. Known for his striking power and grappling skills, McVey could capitalize on any openings if he manages to keep the fight standing. However, his defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed in past losses, particularly against opponents who can control the pace on the ground. Betting enthusiasts should note that McVey's path to victory likely hinges on an early knockout or a decision win through volume striking, but the odds reflect the challenges he faces against a more polished foe.

On the other side, Zachary Reese enters as the favorite at 1.33, boasting a well-rounded skill set that includes superior wrestling and submission threats. Reese's ability to dictate where the fight takes place—whether on the feet or the mat—makes him a formidable opponent. His recent performances demonstrate a high fight IQ, allowing him to adapt quickly, which is crucial in a short-notice scenario like this. The draw sits at a distant 50.00, indicating bookmakers see this going to a finish, aligning with both fighters' aggressive styles.

Analyzing their styles, Reese's grappling advantage could neutralize McVey's power punches, potentially leading to a ground-and-pound scenario or a submission. McVey might land a big shot early, but Reese's durability and cardio suggest he can weather the storm and take over in later rounds. From a betting perspective, laying the juice on Reese at 1.33 offers value for those confident in his ability to control the fight, especially given the replacement dynamics that might disrupt McVey's preparation more than Reese's.

For sports betting fans, this matchup underscores the importance of considering fighter adaptability in short-notice bouts. While McVey has upset potential, the smart money leans toward Reese grinding out a win, possibly by decision or late stoppage. Keep an eye on weigh-ins and any last-minute news, as these could shift the odds further.

The highly anticipated UFC Vegas 111 matchup between Jackson McVey and Zachary Reese offers a fascinating betting opportunity, with odds clearly favoring one side. Zachary Reese enters as the substantial favorite with American odds of 1.33, indicating that bookmakers assign him a high probability of victory, around 75% based on implied calculations. This means bettors would need to wager $304 to win $100 on Reese, reflecting confidence in his skills and preparation. In contrast, Jackson McVey is the underdog with odds of 3.50, suggesting a lower win chance of approximately 29%, but offering a attractive payout for those willing to take a risk. The draw option at 50.00 is exceptionally long, highlighting its rarity in MMA, where fights typically end in a knockout or decision.

Recent news adds depth to this analysis, as both fighters are involved in a last-minute opponent change, with Reese stepping in after Donte Johnson's removal from the card. In MMA, such substitutions can introduce volatility, as fighters may face disrupted training camps or unfamiliar styles. However, Reese's status as the favorite implies that he might have maintained a rigorous camp or possesses inherent advantages, such as experience or technical prowess, that mitigate the impact of the change. Historical data shows that favorites in replacement fights often prevail, as they tend to be more adaptable and better prepared overall.

From a profitability standpoint, betting on Zachary Reese appears to be the wiser choice. His odds of 1.33 suggest strong value if his actual win probability exceeds the implied 75%, which seems plausible given the context. While McVey's underdog odds of 3.50 could yield a high return in an upset scenario, the risk is significant without compelling evidence of his superior form or a major flaw in Reese's game. In combat sports, consistency and favoritism often correlate with success, making Reese the safer bet for accumulating earnings over time.

In summary, the combination of odds, recent developments, and typical MMA dynamics points toward Zachary Reese as the most reliable pick for this bout. Bettors should consider his dominance in the betting lines and the minimal disruptive effect of the opponent change when placing their wagers.

This matchup between Jackson McVey and Zachary Reese presents an intriguing betting opportunity due to the unique circumstances surrounding the fight. Both fighters are stepping into this bout under less-than-ideal conditions, which makes analyzing their odds and potential performance a critical task for bettors.
Jackson McVey enters the octagon with American odds of 3.50, indicating he is the underdog in this contest. While McVey has shown flashes of potential in his previous fights, his recent preparation might have been disrupted by the late opponent change. Fighters often tailor their training camps to the specific strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, and having to adjust last-minute can create vulnerabilities. That said, McVey’s odds reflect significant value if he can capitalize on any opening Reese leaves during the fight. The 3.50 payout means that a $1 bet could return $2.50 in profit, making it an attractive option if McVey performs above expectations.
On the other hand, Zachary Reese is listed as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.33. This suggests that bookmakers view him as the more likely winner, but the steep odds also mean that bettors must risk $3.04 to win just $1. While Reese’s record and reputation may justify this positioning, it’s important to consider the context. Stepping in as a replacement fighter can be physically and mentally taxing, especially when preparing on short notice. Reese will need to adapt quickly to McVey’s style, which could expose him to mistakes. Despite being favored, the 1.33 line offers minimal reward relative to the inherent risks of MMA fights, where upsets are common.