English
English (US)
Betting tips from AI for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
AI Consensus
1.81
Home win
6 of 6 AI models pick Jacksonville Jaguars to win at
1.81
ChatGPT tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
ChatGPT prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
Jacksonville looks like the sharper play. The Jags closed the season on an eight-game winning streak, Jakobi Meyers has transformed their passing game, and Jacksonville’s balance and clutch play in big spots make them a live upset/hold-your-ground team at home. Bookmakers list Jacksonville at 1.85 while Buffalo is priced at 2.02.
Buffalo’s 5.1 yards-per-carry run defense and an unsettled kicking situation after Matt Prater’s relapse create real vulnerabilities in a one-score game. Analytics and multiple experts already lean Jacksonville; with the Bills’ inconsistent cover history, backing the in-form Jaguars at these odds is the most profitable $1 play.
Buffalo’s 5.1 yards-per-carry run defense and an unsettled kicking situation after Matt Prater’s relapse create real vulnerabilities in a one-score game. Analytics and multiple experts already lean Jacksonville; with the Bills’ inconsistent cover history, backing the in-form Jaguars at these odds is the most profitable $1 play.
Gemini tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
Gemini prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
This AFC Wild Card matchup presents a fascinating scenario where the Jacksonville Jaguars, despite some market perception as slight underdogs on the spread, emerge as the clear value play on the moneyline at 1.85. Experts are consistently picking the Jaguars, with score predictions leaning firmly in their favor, ranging from 27-24 to 28-20. Jacksonville is riding an impressive eight-game winning streak, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure, including a dominant win over the AFC's top seed. The midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers has transformed their passing game, now ranking third in EPA per drop-back. Critically, Buffalo's glaring weakness in run defense, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, is a major concern, as is their uncertain kicker situation. Jacksonville's reliable Cam Little offers a significant advantage in what's expected to be a tight contest. The Bills' inconsistent spread performance this season further reinforces the Jaguars as the more reliable bet. All signs point to Jacksonville continuing their dominant run.
Claude tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
Claude prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
Jacksonville enters this Wild Card matchup as the statistical underdog at 1.85 despite their impressive eight-game winning streak and superior 13-4 record. The Jaguars' offensive transformation following the Jakobi Meyers acquisition has been remarkable, elevating them to third in EPA per drop-back. Buffalo's vulnerability against the run (allowing 5.1 yards per carry) presents a significant advantage for Jacksonville's balanced attack.
The kicking situation heavily favors the Jaguars, with Cam Little providing reliability and range while Buffalo contends with Matt Prater's quad injury. This could prove decisive in what projects to be a close contest.
Most compelling is Jacksonville's proven ability to elevate against playoff-caliber competition, with victories over five playoff teams including the AFC's top seed. Buffalo's inconsistent performance as favorites (covering just 6 of 15 when favored by 1.5+ points) further supports backing Jacksonville. The Jaguars' home-field advantage at EverBank Stadium should push them over the top in this tightly contested affair.
The kicking situation heavily favors the Jaguars, with Cam Little providing reliability and range while Buffalo contends with Matt Prater's quad injury. This could prove decisive in what projects to be a close contest.
Most compelling is Jacksonville's proven ability to elevate against playoff-caliber competition, with victories over five playoff teams including the AFC's top seed. Buffalo's inconsistent performance as favorites (covering just 6 of 15 when favored by 1.5+ points) further supports backing Jacksonville. The Jaguars' home-field advantage at EverBank Stadium should push them over the top in this tightly contested affair.
Grok tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
Grok prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are primed for an upset in this AFC Wild Card clash against the Buffalo Bills at EverBank Stadium. Despite the Bills entering as slight 1-point favorites with odds at 2.02 for Buffalo and 1.85 for Jacksonville, the Jags' momentum is undeniable. They've ridden an eight-game winning streak to close the regular season, boasting a 13-4 record and victories over five playoff teams, including a statement win over the AFC's top seed.
Offensively, Jacksonville has transformed since acquiring Jakobi Meyers midseason, now ranking third in EPA per drop-back and fourth in passing success rate. This firepower could exploit Buffalo's vulnerabilities, particularly their run defense that yields 5.1 yards per carry—a weakness that analysts say will be decisive in a tight game.
The kicker edge goes to Jacksonville too, with reliable Cam Little contrasting Buffalo's uncertainty after Matt Prater's quad injury flare-up. Multiple experts and models project scores like 27-24 or 28-20 in the Jags' favor, highlighting their elevated play in high-stakes spots. Buffalo's spotty spread coverage—only eight times in 17 games, and just six of 15 as favorites by 1.5 or more—adds doubt to their reliability here.
Betting $1 on the Jaguars at 1.85 looks like the profitable play, capitalizing on their home advantage and form to advance.
Offensively, Jacksonville has transformed since acquiring Jakobi Meyers midseason, now ranking third in EPA per drop-back and fourth in passing success rate. This firepower could exploit Buffalo's vulnerabilities, particularly their run defense that yields 5.1 yards per carry—a weakness that analysts say will be decisive in a tight game.
The kicker edge goes to Jacksonville too, with reliable Cam Little contrasting Buffalo's uncertainty after Matt Prater's quad injury flare-up. Multiple experts and models project scores like 27-24 or 28-20 in the Jags' favor, highlighting their elevated play in high-stakes spots. Buffalo's spotty spread coverage—only eight times in 17 games, and just six of 15 as favorites by 1.5 or more—adds doubt to their reliability here.
Betting $1 on the Jaguars at 1.85 looks like the profitable play, capitalizing on their home advantage and form to advance.
DeepSeek tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
DeepSeek prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
In this AFC Wild Card showdown, the Jacksonville Jaguars are listed at 1.85 despite analysts consistently picking them to upset the Buffalo Bills at 2.02. The Jaguars' eight-game winning streak and victories over playoff teams showcase their clutch performance, fueled by an offensive surge post-Jakobi Meyers trade.
Buffalo's run defense, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, is a glaring weakness Jacksonville can exploit. Kicker uncertainty for the Bills versus Cam Little's reliability could swing a tight game, and Buffalo's poor spread coverage as favorites adds to the Jaguars' edge.
With momentum and key matchup advantages, Jacksonville presents strong betting value to win outright.
Buffalo's run defense, allowing 5.1 yards per carry, is a glaring weakness Jacksonville can exploit. Kicker uncertainty for the Bills versus Cam Little's reliability could swing a tight game, and Buffalo's poor spread coverage as favorites adds to the Jaguars' edge.
With momentum and key matchup advantages, Jacksonville presents strong betting value to win outright.
Qwen tip
Jacksonville Jaguars win
1.81
Qwen prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills, 11 January 2026.
This Wild Card matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills shapes up as a potential classic, with both teams bringing compelling narratives into the contest. The Jaguars enter on an eight-game winning streak, including signature wins over playoff-caliber opponents, while showcasing an offense transformed by the midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers. Their third-ranked EPA per drop-back highlights their newfound explosiveness, making them a legitimate threat to Buffalo's defense, which has struggled against the run, allowing 5.1 yards per carry.
The Bills, despite their 12-5 record, have been inconsistent against the spread this season, covering just eight times in 17 opportunities. This raises doubts about their reliability as narrow favorites, especially given their shaky kicker situation after Matt Prater's injury. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s Cam Little has demonstrated elite range and consistency, adding another layer of confidence for the Jaguars in critical moments.
Bookmakers have set tight odds, with Jacksonville listed at 1.85 and Buffalo at 2.02. These numbers suggest a closely contested game, but the weight of expert predictions and Jacksonville's momentum tilt the scales slightly in their favor. Considering the Jaguars' recent dominance, improved offensive firepower, and Buffalo's defensive vulnerabilities, backing Jacksonville seems like the smarter play.
While Buffalo boasts talent and experience, the combination of Jacksonville’s red-hot form and situational advantages makes them a worthy bet in this spot.
The Bills, despite their 12-5 record, have been inconsistent against the spread this season, covering just eight times in 17 opportunities. This raises doubts about their reliability as narrow favorites, especially given their shaky kicker situation after Matt Prater's injury. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s Cam Little has demonstrated elite range and consistency, adding another layer of confidence for the Jaguars in critical moments.
Bookmakers have set tight odds, with Jacksonville listed at 1.85 and Buffalo at 2.02. These numbers suggest a closely contested game, but the weight of expert predictions and Jacksonville's momentum tilt the scales slightly in their favor. Considering the Jaguars' recent dominance, improved offensive firepower, and Buffalo's defensive vulnerabilities, backing Jacksonville seems like the smarter play.
While Buffalo boasts talent and experience, the combination of Jacksonville’s red-hot form and situational advantages makes them a worthy bet in this spot.
Match News
# AFC Wild Card Predictions & Match Preview
## Expert Predictions
• Multiple analysts favor Jacksonville: Sports betting analysts and computer projection models consistently pick the Jaguars to upset the favored Bills, with predicted final scores ranging from 27-24 to 28-20 in Jacksonville's favor.[2][4][5]
• Defense becomes the deciding factor: One analyst emphasized that Buffalo's run defense—allowing 5.1 yards per carry—represents a critical weakness that could prove decisive, giving Jacksonville the edge in a close contest.[3]
• Kicker situation tilts toward Jacksonville: Experts highlight that Buffalo faces uncertainty at the kicker position after Matt Prater re-aggravated a quad injury, while Jacksonville's Cam Little has been reliable with elite range, potentially swinging a tight game.[4]
## Team Form & Context
• Jacksonville riding momentum: The Jaguars closed the regular season on an eight-game winning streak and own victories over five playoff teams, including a dominant win over the AFC's top seed, demonstrating they elevate their play in high-stakes situations.[4]
• Offensive transformation in Jacksonville: The midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers dramatically improved the Jaguars' passing game—they now rank third in EPA per drop-back and fourth in passing success rate since the trade.[4]
• Buffalo's inconsistent spread performance: The Bills have covered the spread only eight times in 17 chances this season and covered just six of 15 games when favored by 1.5 points or more, raising questions about their reliability as favorites.[5]
## Matchup Details
The No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) face the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, January 11, with the Bills favored by approximately 1 point.[2][7] Jacksonville enters as a slight underdog despite their superior regular-season record and recent dominance.[5]
## Expert Predictions
• Multiple analysts favor Jacksonville: Sports betting analysts and computer projection models consistently pick the Jaguars to upset the favored Bills, with predicted final scores ranging from 27-24 to 28-20 in Jacksonville's favor.[2][4][5]
• Defense becomes the deciding factor: One analyst emphasized that Buffalo's run defense—allowing 5.1 yards per carry—represents a critical weakness that could prove decisive, giving Jacksonville the edge in a close contest.[3]
• Kicker situation tilts toward Jacksonville: Experts highlight that Buffalo faces uncertainty at the kicker position after Matt Prater re-aggravated a quad injury, while Jacksonville's Cam Little has been reliable with elite range, potentially swinging a tight game.[4]
## Team Form & Context
• Jacksonville riding momentum: The Jaguars closed the regular season on an eight-game winning streak and own victories over five playoff teams, including a dominant win over the AFC's top seed, demonstrating they elevate their play in high-stakes situations.[4]
• Offensive transformation in Jacksonville: The midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers dramatically improved the Jaguars' passing game—they now rank third in EPA per drop-back and fourth in passing success rate since the trade.[4]
• Buffalo's inconsistent spread performance: The Bills have covered the spread only eight times in 17 chances this season and covered just six of 15 games when favored by 1.5 points or more, raising questions about their reliability as favorites.[5]
## Matchup Details
The No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) face the No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, January 11, with the Bills favored by approximately 1 point.[2][7] Jacksonville enters as a slight underdog despite their superior regular-season record and recent dominance.[5]
See how multiple AI models rate Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills. We aggregate today's
betting tips and highlight agreement between models when it occurs. Use this page to scan the overall
picture quickly, then open any model's detailed tip to read short reasoning.