Betting tips from AI for Jaime Faria vs Andrey Rublev, 21 January 2026.

Andrey Rublev arrives an overwhelming favorite with the book at 1.14, while qualifier Jaime Faria carries the upset tag at 6.73.
Faria's run is real — he gutted out a 2.5-hour win over Alexander Blockx, converting half his break points and edging the points battle 109-105 to book this spot. That gritty effort, plus the emotional lift and a $75,000 payday already secured, makes him dangerous on a good day.
Still, Rublev (world No.15) has the firepower, tour polish and recovery routine to exploit a tiring qualifier. First meeting dynamics and surface speed favor the Russian. For a $1 bet seeking the highest win-probability, backing Andrey Rublev is the prudent, value-minded play.

This Australian Open clash pits the seasoned world No. 15 Andrey Rublev against Portuguese qualifier Jaime Faria, ranked 151st. The bookmakers have made their stance clear, pricing Rublev at an overwhelming 1.14, while Faria is a massive underdog at 6.73.

While Faria is enjoying his best-ever run at the Australian Open, coming off a gritty 2.5-hour battle against Alexander Blockx, this is a monumental step up in class. Rublev is a consistent Grand Slam quarterfinalist and a powerhouse on the tour. Faria's recent win, though impressive for his level, involved converting only half his break points and battling for over two hours. Against a player of Rublev's caliber, any hint of fatigue or inefficiency will be severely punished.

This is the first meeting between the two, but Rublev's experience, superior ranking, and consistent performance against lower-ranked opponents make him the undeniable favorite. Expect Rublev to assert his dominance and advance comfortably, despite Faria's newfound confidence.

This Australian Open clash presents a classic David vs. Goliath scenario. World No. 15 Andrey Rublev enters as the overwhelming favorite at 1.14 odds against Portuguese qualifier Jaime Faria, ranked 151st globally.

While Faria's upset over Alexander Blockx showcased his fighting spirit and ability to capitalize on opportunities (converting 50% of break points), the leap in competition against Rublev is enormous. The Russian's power baseline game, particularly his devastating forehand, should overwhelm the inexperienced qualifier.

Faria's breakthrough run has already secured him $75,000 – life-changing money for a player at his ranking – but Rublev's experience at this level makes him the sensible bet despite the low return. First-time meetings often favor the established player, especially in Grand Slam settings where Rublev's weapons can fully deploy over five sets if needed.

The 1.14 odds accurately reflect Rublev's massive advantage in this matchup.

In the Australian Open Men's draw, world No. 15 Andrey Rublev faces a tough but winnable challenge against qualifier Jaime Faria, who's riding high after a gritty upset over Alexander Blockx in a 2.5-hour thriller. Faria, ranked No. 151, converted half his break points to edge out 109-105 in total points, marking his best-ever run at Melbourne Park and already securing $75,000. This first-ever meeting pits the rising Portuguese talent against Rublev's seasoned power game, with markets heavily favoring the Russian at 1.14 to Faria's 6.73.

Rublev's experience on big stages, including deep runs in majors, gives him the edge. He's a powerhouse with a big serve and relentless baseline play, unlikely to falter against an unproven qualifier. Faria's stamina shone in the qualifier, but facing Rublev's intensity could overwhelm him early. Expect Rublev to control rallies and break serve decisively, advancing comfortably.

For bettors eyeing value, the heavy favorite line offers low risk for steady returns—Rublev's form and seeding make this a smart play to build your bankroll without chasing longshots.

Portuguese qualifier Jaime Faria is riding high after a gritty upset over Alexander Blockx, showcasing clutch play by converting half his break points. However, facing world No. 15 Andrey Rublev in their first-ever meeting is a monumental step up, with Rublev's seeded status and Grand Slam experience making him a formidable favorite.

The bookmakers reflect this with odds of 6.73 for Faria and 1.14 for Rublev. While Faria's best-ever run adds intrigue, Rublev's consistent power and tournament pedigree should secure a straightforward victory, offering the safer bet for profitability.

Jaime Faria's journey to the Australian Open has been nothing short of inspiring, especially after his gritty 2.5-hour battle against Alexander Blockx. Faria's ability to convert half of his break points and edge out in total points shows his tenacity and skill. However, facing Andrey Rublev, a player of significant caliber and ranked world No. 15, presents a formidable challenge. The betting markets heavily favor Rublev at 1.14, reflecting his consistent performance and higher ranking. Despite Faria's recent success and the potential for a major upset, the odds and the overall form suggest that Rublev is the more likelyable candidate to advance. Rublev's experience and superior skill set make him a strong favorite to win this match.