Betting tips from AI for Jake Woodley vs Adland Benson, 21 November 2025.

Pricing tells the story here: Jake Woodley at 1.17 is being priced as an almost inevitable winner, while Adland Benson sits at a juicy 5.25. Converting those numbers, the market implies roughly 85.7% for Woodley and 19.0% for Benson. That’s a massive gap, and the question for bettors isn’t “who is more likely to win?” (Woodley), but “which side offers positive expected value at these prices?” I lean heavily toward Benson as the value side.

From a stylistic standpoint, Woodley’s profile lines up with what Tyron Woodley highlighted: strong wrestling base, relentless pace, and growing comfort on the feet. He’s 5-1, coming off a dominant decision, training at altitude, and fighting near home with a raucous crowd behind him. All of that supports a grind-heavy, control-oriented decision or late attritional finish—exactly the outcome Tyron predicted. If this fight plays out on Woodley’s terms, he’s the rightful favorite and probably wins on minutes.

But the number is everything. At 1.17, you need Woodley to win well over eight out of ten to break even. That’s a steep requirement in MMA, a sport with high variance and small gloves, especially against an opponent like Benson who owns genuine fight-ending power and is coming off a highlight-reel KO. Ariel Helwani flagged Benson’s finishing instincts and this matchup as a potential show-stealer for a reason: Benson is dangerous in scramble-heavy or chaotic exchanges, and the media-day dustup suggests we could get a fast-starting, emotional first round—prime conditions for an underdog puncher.

Benson’s 5-4 record and inconsistency are the counterpoints, but he’s working with a new striking coach, looks confident, and only needs a handful of high-quality moments to flip rounds—or find the chin. In a three-rounder, one knockdown can bank a frame and change the rhythm of the entire fight. If Woodley can’t settle into top control early, the stand-up minutes favor volatility, and volatility is the underdog’s friend.

My handicapped range puts Woodley closer to 72–78% rather than the implied 85.7%. That lifts Benson to roughly 22–28%, comfortably above the 19.0% break-even for 5.25. In other words, Woodley likely wins more often, but the price on Benson is misaligned enough to take the shot. If you’re betting $1 per play with an eye on long-term profit, the +EV is on Benson moneyline.

Bottom line: respect Woodley’s minute-winning tools and cardio edge, but the market tax on the favorite is rich. The smarter wager is Benson at 5.25 to capitalize on knockout upside and fight chaos that could erupt in front of a charged crowd.

This LFA middleweight clash presents a classic wrestler vs. striker dynamic, but the betting odds tell a story of a lopsided affair that may not be as clear-cut as it seems. Jake Woodley enters as the prohibitive favorite, with odds as short as 1.17. This is understandable given his strong 5-1 record, his wrestling pedigree lauded by former UFC champion Tyron Woodley, and his methodical, high-pace style. He's coming off a dominant decision, has prepared at altitude to ensure his gas tank is full, and will have the backing of a raucous hometown crowd. On paper, his path to victory is clear: take the fight to the mat, control the position, and grind out a decision over three rounds.

However, from a betting perspective, backing a 1.17 favorite offers almost no value. To turn a profit, you need to find opportunities where the odds don't accurately reflect a fighter's chances. That's where Adland Benson comes in. Priced as a significant underdog at 5.25, Benson represents a high-risk, high-reward play that holds all the value in this matchup. While his 5-4 record shows inconsistency, it also masks his greatest asset: fight-ending power. His most recent victory was a highlight-reel knockout, and as Michael Jai White noted, he brings a level of chaos that can disrupt even the most disciplined game plan.

Several factors point towards a potential upset. First, Benson is working with a new striking coach, suggesting a focused effort to sharpen his primary weapon. Second, the pre-fight animosity, which culminated in a scuffle at the media day, could play directly into Benson's hands. He has successfully made this personal. If he can draw Woodley into a stand-up war, he negates Woodley's biggest advantage and brings the fight into his world. A wrestler who abandons his strategy to engage in a brawl is often a wrestler who gets knocked out. Benson's finishing instincts are his path to victory, and he only needs one clean shot to cash those 5.25 tickets.

While Woodley is the more likely fighter to get his hand raised if this goes the distance, the implied probability of a Benson win (around 19%) feels far too low for a fighter with his proven power. The goal is to make profitable bets, and the potential return on Benson is too substantial to ignore. We are betting on Benson's power and the emotional volatility of the fight to create an upset. It's a risk, but it's a calculated one based on undeniable value.

This LFA 223 matchup presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic with Jake Woodley as the heavy favorite at 1.17 against Adland Benson's underdog odds of 5.25. The betting line heavily favors Woodley, and for good reason - his 5-1 record demonstrates consistent performance, while Benson's 5-4 mark shows inconsistency despite recent improvements.

Woodley's wrestling pedigree appears to be the deciding factor here. Former UFC champion Tyron Woodley's endorsement carries significant weight, particularly his emphasis on Jake's "grinding" ability and improved striking. This combination of elite wrestling with developing standup creates multiple paths to victory. His recent altitude training suggests serious preparation for maintaining a high pace throughout three rounds.

Benson's highlight-reel knockout power and new striking coach add intrigue, but his alternating win-loss pattern over six fights reveals reliability issues. While his "dangerous finishing instincts" could create problems early, Woodley's ability to weather storms and impose his wrestling-heavy gameplan becomes more pronounced as rounds progress.

The heated media day confrontation and viral clips suggest both fighters are emotionally invested, but this typically favors the more technical, disciplined competitor. Woodley's local crowd support and familiarity with the venue provide additional advantages in what could be a mentally taxing fight.

While Benson's chaos and finishing ability make him live in any exchange, Woodley's superior conditioning from altitude training, wrestling control, and consistent performance history make him the logical choice. The 1.17 odds reflect legitimate skill gaps that Benson's power alone may not overcome across fifteen minutes.

When it comes to MMA betting, especially in the LFA, you have to look beyond just the records and dive into the intangibles that can swing a fight. Jake Woodley versus Adland Benson at LFA 223 is shaping up to be one of those matchups where the favorite's pedigree might just overpower the underdog's flash. Woodley, sitting at a heavy favorite with odds of 1.17, brings a 5-1 record into the cage, fresh off a dominant decision win that showcased his evolving skill set. Training at altitude has him primed for a high pace, and with endorsements from big names like former UFC champ Tyron Woodley—who shares a similar wrestling background—it's hard not to see Jake grinding this out.

Tyron Woodley's prediction of a 'grind out a tough decision win' resonates because Jake's wrestling is his bread and butter. He's improved on the feet, but it's that relentless takedown game and control on the ground that could neutralize Benson's striking threats. Benson, at 5.25, is no slouch with his 5-4 record and a recent highlight-reel KO that proves he can end fights in spectacular fashion. Working with a new striking coach, he claims to feel 'better than ever,' and his 'dangerous finishing instincts' highlighted by Ariel Helwani could make this a war if it stays standing.

But here's where the betting value lies: the odds reflect Woodley's favoritism, but the viral scuffle at media day and the sold-out crowd in Woodley's hometown add layers. That 'electric atmosphere' could fuel Jake's performance, pushing him to dictate the pace over three rounds. Benson's alternating win-loss streak in his last six suggests inconsistency, and while his chaos factor—echoed by Michael Jai White's 'fireworks' comment—might create openings, Woodley's wrestling should stifle those moments.

From a betting perspective, laying the juice on Woodley at 1.17 might not scream value, but if you're parlaying or looking at method of victory props, a decision win aligns with the analysis. Benson's path to victory relies on keeping it standing and landing that big shot, but Woodley's improvements and pace could wear him down. This fight has 'show-stealer' potential, as Helwani noted, potentially catapulting the winner toward title contention, but I see Woodley emerging victorious in a gritty affair.

Ultimately, for bettors, this is about risk assessment. Benson offers tempting underdog payout at 5.25, but the smart money rides with Woodley's momentum and home support. Don't sleep on the intangibles— that heated exchange might motivate Woodley even more. If Benson brings the wild energy from his last KO, it could be close, but I predict Woodley controls the fight and takes the W.

This LFA 223 middleweight bout between Jake Woodley and Adland Benson has captured attention for its compelling dynamics and pre-fight drama. Woodley, boasting a 5-1 record, enters as the favorite with a strong wrestling foundation and recent improvements in striking, as highlighted by former UFC champion Tyron Woodley's prediction of a decision win. His training at altitude and relentless pace, coupled with home crowd support in a sold-out venue, position him to control the fight and wear down his opponent. Woodley's consistency and ability to avoid major mistakes make him a reliable pick, especially against a less stable adversary.

Adland Benson, with a 5-4 record and alternating wins and losses, brings undeniable knockout power and unpredictability. His recent highlight-reel KO and work with a new striking coach have boosted his confidence, and the viral scuffle at media day underscores his aggressive mindset. MMA journalist Ariel Helwani's notes on Benson's 'dangerous finishing instincts' and actor Michael Jai White's expectation of 'fireworks' remind bettors of the upset potential. However, Benson's inconsistency and Woodley's grappling edge suggest that while he could land a fight-ending blow, he may struggle to implement his game plan against Woodley's pressure.

From a betting perspective, Woodley's odds of 1.17 indicate a high implied probability of victory, around 85%, reflecting his advantages in skill and preparation. Benson's underdog odds of 5.25 offer a tempting payout for risk-takers, but the likelihood of an upset appears low given Woodley's superior control and endurance. For profitability, betting on Woodley at 1.17 provides a steady, low-risk return, as his methodical approach should neutralize Benson's threats and secure a win, potentially by decision, aligning with expert insights and statistical reliability.

Jake Woodley enters this bout as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.17, and for good reason. His wrestling pedigree, highlighted by none other than former UFC champion Tyron Woodley, suggests he has the tools to control the pace and location of the fight. Wrestling is often the great equalizer in MMA, and Woodley’s ability to dictate where the action takes place could neutralize Adland Benson’s dangerous striking instincts. Furthermore, Woodley’s recent improvements on the feet make him a more complete fighter, reducing his vulnerability to Benson’s power. A “grind-out decision” scenario feels plausible given Woodley’s track record of relentless pressure and his conditioning advantage from training at altitude.
Benson, however, cannot be dismissed outright. With odds of 5.25, he represents a significant underdog opportunity for bettors. His last fight was a highlight-reel knockout, showcasing his finishing instincts and ability to capitalize on openings. MMA journalist Ariel Helwani’s comments about Benson’s “chaos” style suggest that if he can drag Woodley into a firefight, he might have a puncher’s chance. Actor Michael Jai White’s prediction of “fireworks” aligns with this narrative, emphasizing the unpredictability Benson brings to the cage. Moreover, the heated media day exchange and subsequent viral attention indicate Benson will come out swinging, potentially catching Woodley off guard early.",The venue itself adds another layer of intrigue. Known for its raucous crowds and sold-out atmosphere, it leans heavily in Woodley’s favor due to his local ties. Home support can energize a fighter and amplify their performance, particularly in close rounds where judges may lean toward the hometown hero. While Benson’s new striking coach and reported confidence are positives, they don’t outweigh the structural advantages Woodley enjoys.",Ultimately, while Benson’s explosiveness makes him a live dog, the smart money lies with Jake Woodley. The odds of 1.17 reflect his dominance and reliability, while Benson’s inconsistency (alternating wins and losses) raises concerns about his ability to sustain momentum over three rounds. Woodley’s wrestling foundation, combined with his high pace and decision-oriented style, positions him as the safer and more likely victor. Betting on Woodley may not offer massive returns, but it provides stability and minimizes risk in a volatile matchup.