Betting tips from AI for Jordan Thompson vs Nuno Borges, 21 January 2026.

Nuno Borges arrives in Melbourne with momentum after that shock over Félix Auger-Aliassime — the Canadian’s cramp-induced retirement papered over a solid performance and leaves Borges visibly confident. His head-to-head dominance (3-0) and a hard-court win last January make the matchup stylistically uncomfortable for Jordan Thompson, and bookmakers reflect that with Borges as the clear favorite 1.50 while Thompson is priced 2.79.

Thompson’s home crowd and fightback against Cerúndolo show resilience, but he’s never advanced past a second round at his home Slam. Experts and models (Forebet gives Borges ~74% edge) point to consistent baseline depth and cleaner ball-striking from Borges as the deciding factors.

For a $1 flat stake seeking the highest win probability, backing Nuno Borges is the pragmatic play — the formline, H2H and outside opinions all tilt heavily his way.

Nuno Borges enters this clash riding a wave of momentum, fresh off a stunning upset over Felix Auger-Aliassime. While FAA's cramp played a role, Borges seized the opportunity, demonstrating his ability to capitalize under pressure. This victory, combined with his dominant 1.50 odds, paints a clear picture. The experts are firmly behind Borges, with algorithms like Forebet giving him a commanding 74% chance to win, citing his consistent Grand Slam form.

Jordan Thompson, despite battling back from a set down in his opener, faces a significant hurdle. His historical inability to progress past the second round at his home Australian Open, despite six attempts, adds to the pressure. Crucially, Borges holds a commanding 3-0 head-to-head record against Thompson, including a recent hard-court win. This historical dominance, coupled with current form and expert backing, makes Borges the clear favorite to advance, despite Thompson's home crowd advantage. The smart money is on Borges to continue his impressive run.

Nuno Borges holds a commanding 3-0 head-to-head record against Jordan Thompson, including a hard-court victory last January that's particularly relevant for this Australian Open matchup. The Portuguese player enters with momentum after his upset win over Felix Auger-Aliassime, showcasing his ability to perform against higher-ranked opposition.

Thompson's home-court advantage can't be discounted, but history shows he's never progressed beyond the second round at his home Slam despite six appearances. This psychological barrier may weigh heavily against the Australian, who's priced as an underdog at 2.79.

Borges' 1.50 odds reflect his superiority in this matchup. The 74% win probability assigned by analytical models aligns with expert consensus. Thompson's comeback against Cerundolo demonstrated resilience, but Borges' consistent Grand Slam form and perfect record against Thompson make him the clear choice for profitable betting.

In the sweltering heat of Melbourne, Jordan Thompson faces a daunting task against Nuno Borges in the second round of the Australian Open. Thompson, the home favorite, clawed back from a set down to dispatch Juan Manuel Cerundolo, marking his sixth straight appearance in the second round at his home Slam. But he's never gone deeper, often buckling under the weight of national expectations and roaring crowds.

Borges, meanwhile, is the talk of the tournament after his shocking upset over Felix Auger-Aliassime, who retired injured before the fourth set. The Portuguese lefty's composure shone through, and it's no fluke—he holds a perfect 3-0 head-to-head edge over Thompson, including a hard-court victory last January. Experts at TheStatsZone are all in on Borges, highlighting his steady Grand Slam showings last year against Thompson's inconsistency in big moments. Even with algorithms like Forebet giving Borges a 74% win probability, the odds reflect the mismatch at 1.50 for the underdog slayer versus 2.79 for the Aussie hopeful.

The outdoor hard courts suit Borges's all-court game, and with Thompson's pressure struggles evident, I see the momentum carrying the Portuguese to victory. This isn't just a win; it's a statement in Borges's rising career.

Nuno Borges rides a wave of confidence after his stunning upset over Felix Auger-Aliassime, while Jordan Thompson's comeback win highlights his grit but not his second-round fortunes at home. Borges' 1.50 odds signal his favoritism, reinforced by a 3-0 head-to-head edge and expert tips citing his steady Slam form.
Thompson at 2.79 offers enticing value, but algorithms like Forebet give Borges a 74% edge, and his mental advantage from past wins should prevail over the Melbourne crowd's support, making Borges the profitable pick.

Nuno Borges comes into this match with a significant psychological and statistical edge. The Portuguese player has a perfect 3-0 head-to-head record against Jordan Thompson, including a hard-court victory in January of the previous year. This dominance, coupled with his recent upset over Felix Auger-Aliassime, showcases Borges' ability to perform under pressure and on the big stage.
Thompson, on the other hand, has shown resilience by battling back from a set down in his first-round match against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. However, his history of struggling in high-pressure situations at the Australian Open, where he's never advanced past the second round, is a concern. Despite the home crowd support, which could potentially lift Thompson's game, the odds and recent form suggest that Borges is the more likely bet. At 1.50, Borges is favored, and given his consistent performance and mental toughness, he is likely pick to advance.