Betting tips from AI for Josh Hokit vs Max Gimenis, 08 November 2025.

Two UFC debutants with starkly different grappling pedigrees meet at UFC Vegas 111, and the market has planted a flag: Josh Hokit is a hefty favorite at 1.23, while Max Gimenis sits as a live underdog at 4.45. A draw is priced at a lottery-ticket 50.00. That pricing reflects confidence in Hokit's wrestling base and Contender Series momentum, but it also leaves room for value on the other side in a fight where one scramble can decide everything.

Hokit brings a strong collegiate wrestling background, real athletic pop, and a composed, grinding style. He’s fresh off a TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series, is 5-0 across his last five, and enters with a clean bill of health. In top position he’s heavy, disciplined, and generally good at avoiding the kind of wild mistakes that lead to quick reversals.

Gimenis, meanwhile, is a multiple-time world BJJ champion who has been adding meaningful layers to his MMA game. He’s coming off two wins in Shogun Fights, the latest a first-round TKO of Diego Peclat, which suggests his striking is catching up enough to set up grappling entries or punish failed shots. No injury concerns here either, and his submission pedigree is the kind that punishes even small defensive lapses.

Stylistically, this is the classic wrestler vs. elite guard player. Hokit's best route is cage wrestling to half guard, staying chest-to-chest, and chipping away without dangling his neck or arms. Gimenis will hunt guillotines on the entry, elevate for sweeps, and threaten leg entanglements if Hokit overcommits to pressure. If Hokit rides in top without opening up, rounds can slip away; if he opens up to score, the submission windows appear.

Debut vs. debut magnifies variance. Small UFC-cage samples, new lights, and first-time scouting at the highest level often make these fights swingier than the market implies. When the fight is likely to feature prolonged grappling sequences, a single scramble can invert the win expectancy.

Let’s talk prices. 1.23 implies roughly 81% for Hokit; 4.45 suggests about 22% for Gimenis; 50.00 points near 2% for a draw. My read: Hokit wins this about 68–72% of the time, with Gimenis live around 27–30%. That means the favorite is probably being taxed by hype, while the underdog offers a meaningful cushion over the break-even threshold.

Translated to expected value, a $1 stab on Gimenis at 4.45 is attractive in a high-variance stylistic clash. Conversely, laying 1.23 on a debutant in a submission-rich matchup looks thin for the risk. Draw at 50.00 remains a long shot and likely negative EV.

The path to cashing the dog is clear: early submission off a frantic exchange, or a club-and-sub if Hokit's entries get predictable. The longer and cleaner Hokit wrestles, the more the favorite consolidates, but our $1 is better deployed on the side with amplified payoff and realistic finishing equity. I’m backing the value on Gimenis to spring the upset.

This UFC debut showdown between Josh Hokit and Max Gimenis presents a fascinating and classic clash of styles: the powerful striker versus the elite grappler. The betting market has heavily favored Josh Hokit, installing him as a significant favorite with odds around 1.23. This is largely based on his explosive TKO victory on Dana White's Contender Series and his unblemished 5-0 record. Hokit, a former collegiate wrestler, possesses genuine knockout power and will undoubtedly look to keep this fight on the feet where he has a distinct advantage.

However, ignoring the credentials of Max Gimenis would be a grave mistake for any serious bettor. Gimenis is not just a grappler; he is a multiple-time world champion in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. This level of expertise on the mat is a game-changer in any MMA fight. If this contest hits the canvas, the dynamic shifts entirely, and Gimenis will be in his world, hunting for a submission against a fighter who has yet to be tested by an opponent with this level of ground acumen. While Hokit has a wrestling background, defending takedowns and surviving on the mat with a BJJ world champion are two vastly different challenges.

What makes Gimenis particularly intriguing as an underdog at 4.45 is his own recent TKO victory. It suggests he is developing a more well-rounded game and isn't solely reliant on his jiu-jitsu to win. For two fighters making their UFC debuts, nerves can play a huge role, and the fighter with a more certain path to victory often has an edge. For Gimenis, that path is clear: get the fight to the ground. The odds on Hokit are simply too short to offer any real value. The potential for a Gimenis takedown and subsequent submission is a highly plausible outcome that the market seems to be undervaluing. This is a prime opportunity to back a live underdog with a world-class skill set that can end the fight at any moment on the ground.

As we gear up for UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, the heavyweight clash between Josh Hokit and Max Gimenis promises to be an intriguing debut for both fighters in the Octagon. Josh Hokit enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.23, reflecting his impressive momentum from Dana White's Contender Series. With a flawless 5-0 streak in his recent bouts, including a dominant TKO win over Guilherme Uriel, Hokit showcases a blend of wrestling prowess and striking power that could overwhelm opponents early.

Hokit's background as a former NCAA wrestler and professional football player gives him a significant edge in grappling and physicality. He's known for his explosive takedowns and ground-and-pound, which have been key to his undefeated run. Without any reported injuries, he's primed to dictate the pace against a debuting foe. On the flip side, Max Gimenis, priced as the underdog at 4.45, brings world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials to the table. As a multiple-time BJJ world champion, his ground game is elite, and his recent first-round TKO over Diego Peclat in Shogun Fights highlights his improving striking.

However, Gimenis's transition to UFC-level MMA might expose vulnerabilities, especially against a wrestler like Hokit who can neutralize submissions by controlling top position. The draw sits at a distant 50.00, indicating it's highly unlikely in this matchup of finishers. Betting on Hokit seems like the smart play here, as his well-rounded skill set and recent form suggest he can secure a finish within the first two rounds.

For bettors, consider Hokit's path to victory: his wrestling could lead to a ground dominance that tires out Gimenis, potentially ending in a TKO or submission. Gimenis might pull off an upset with a slick guard pass or knockout, but the odds reflect the probability leaning heavily toward Hokit. This fight embodies the excitement of UFC debuts—two hungry prospects clashing, but experience in high-stakes environments tips the scale for Hokit.

In terms of value, laying the juice on Hokit at 1.23 might not offer the best return, but pairing it in a parlay could amplify profits. Alternatively, if you're feeling bold, a prop bet on Hokit by TKO could yield better payouts. Keep an eye on weigh-ins for any last-minute tells, but based on current news, no injuries disrupt this prediction. Overall, this bout is a must-watch for MMA fans, blending wrestling grit with BJJ artistry in a heavyweight showdown.

The UFC Vegas 111 main card features an exciting debut showdown between Josh Hokit and Max Gimenis, both stepping into the octagon for the first time in the promotion. Hokit arrives with a pristine 5-0 record, highlighted by a recent TKO win on Dana White's Contender Series, showcasing his explosive striking and finishing ability. With no injury concerns, he appears poised to continue his dominance, backed by odds of 1.23 that signal strong confidence from bookmakers in his victory.

Max Gimenis brings a formidable background as a multiple-time world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion, coupled with a first-round TKO in his last fight, indicating he's more than just a grappler. His ground game could test Hokit's defense, but as an underdog at 4.45, he represents a high-risk, high-reward option for bettors eyeing an upset. The draw, priced at 50.00, is a long shot given both fighters' aggressive styles and history of decisive outcomes.

From a betting perspective, Hokit's heavy favoritism means a low return on investment, but his consistent performance and power striking make him a safer pick for accumulating steady profits over time. Gimenis's grappling prowess offers intrigue, yet his odds imply a lower probability of success, making him less appealing for those prioritizing reliability. In debut fights, experience and momentum often tip the scales, and Hokit's unbeaten run provides that edge.

Considering all factors, Josh Hokit is the smart choice for a profitable bet. His track record and the odds alignment suggest he'll capitalize on his strengths to secure a win, minimizing risk while offering a solid foundation for earnings in this matchup.

The upcoming UFC debut fight between Josh Hokit and Max Gimenis presents an intriguing matchup between two undefeated prospects with contrasting skill sets. At first glance, the odds heavily favor Josh Hokit at 1.23, while Max Gimenis is listed as a significant underdog at 4.45. The draw sits at an astronomical 50.00, which is typical for MMA fights where draws are rare. While the odds suggest a dominant performance from Hokit, there are several factors that make this matchup less straightforward than it appears.
Josh Hokit enters the fight with a perfect 5-0 record, including a standout performance on Dana White's Contender Series where he secured a TKO victory over Guilherme Uriel. What stands out about Hokit is his well-rounded skill set, particularly his striking power and ability to finish fights early. However, his opponents have largely been untested competition, and his UFC debut will be a step up in class. His grappling defense has not been thoroughly tested either, which could play a critical role against a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner like Gimenis.
On the other hand, Max Gimenis brings multiple world BJJ championships to the table, showcasing elite-level grappling skills. His recent performances in the Shogun Fights promotion included a first-round TKO win, demonstrating that he can also handle himself on the feet. While his striking may not match Hokit's explosiveness, his grappling credentials suggest he could neutralize Hokit's strengths by taking the fight to the ground. If Gimenis can execute takedowns effectively and control the pace, he could outpoint Hokit or even secure a submission victory.
A deeper analysis of their fighting styles reveals potential vulnerabilities. Hokit’s aggressive striking approach might leave him susceptible to takedowns if he overcommits, especially against someone with Gimenis's grappling pedigree. Conversely, Gimenis’s lack of high-level striking experience could be exploited if Hokit lands clean shots early. Both fighters share the pressure of making a strong impression in their UFC debuts, but the psychological edge likely goes to Hokit, given his experience in high-stakes environments like the Contender Series."The betting value lies in assessing whether the odds accurately reflect the likelihood of outcomes. With Hokit priced at 1.23, you would need to risk $4.38 to win just $1, implying a probability of approximately 81% for him to win. This seems overly optimistic given the uncertainties surrounding both fighters’ transitions to the UFC. Meanwhile, Gimenis at 4.45 offers substantial upside if he can leverage his grappling advantage. A successful bet on Gimenis requires him to dictate the terms of the engagement, but the reward outweighs the risk based on his skill set."In conclusion, while Josh Hokit appears to be the safer pick due to his striking prowess and momentum, the value proposition leans toward Max Gimenis. His grappling expertise provides a clear path to victory against an opponent who has yet to face elite-level opposition. Betting on Gimenis at 4.45 represents a calculated risk with the potential for significant returns.