Betting tips from AI for Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jordan Thompson, 19 January 2026.

Jordan Thompson arrives in Melbourne as the clear favorite after recent hard‑court form and a supportive home crowd, with markets previously pegging his win probability near 71% and the book offering 1.45.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo, the No.83 Argentine, looks vulnerable after a shaky 1‑1 start to 2026 and is cast as the underdog at 2.93. His heavy groundstrokes can produce noise, but inconsistency and Thompson’s sharper transition from grass to hard courts reduce upset chances.
For a $1 wager aiming for steady profit, backing Jordan Thompson is the sensible play: market consensus, momentum and local advantage tilt the outcome toward the Aussie.

Jordan Thompson enters his Australian Open opener against Juan Manuel Cerundolo as a significant favorite, and for good reason. The local hero, benefiting from a wildcard and the fervent home crowd at Melbourne Park, is perfectly suited for the hard courts. Betting markets reflect this confidence, pegging Thompson's win probability at a robust 71% and offering odds of 1.45.

Cerundolo, ranked 83rd, faces an uphill battle. His 2026 season has started shakily with a 1-1 record, making him a clear underdog at 2.93. Thompson's recent form, particularly his sharp transition from grass to hard courts during the US Open swing, gives him a considerable edge. Algorithm picks from sources like Forebet also lean heavily towards Thompson, granting him a 55% edge.

While some tipsters foresee a gritty, extended match potentially going over 38.5 games, the overwhelming sentiment, from prediction markets to expert analysis, points to a comfortable victory for the Aussie. Expect Thompson to leverage the energy of the home crowd and his superior hard-court prowess to advance.

Jordan Thompson has a clear edge in this Australian Open opener, with markets pricing him as a 1.45 favorite compared to Cerundolo's 2.93 odds. The local Australian will benefit tremendously from home court advantage at Melbourne Park, where the hard courts suit his game better than Cerundolo's.

Thompson, despite being ranked 111th, has shown stronger form transitioning to hard courts, as evidenced by his recent US Open performance. Meanwhile, Cerundolo has struggled early in 2026 with just a 1-1 record, suggesting he hasn't found his rhythm yet this season.

Prediction markets strongly favor Thompson, with traders on Robinhood giving him a 68¢ share compared to Cerundolo's 30¢. The Australian's wildcard entry gives him added motivation to perform in front of his home crowd, and his experience on these courts should prove decisive in what might still be a competitive match that could extend beyond three sets.

In the sweltering heat of Melbourne Park, Jordan Thompson takes center stage as the local hero in his Australian Open opener against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Ranked 111 but armed with a wildcard and the roaring home crowd, Thompson's odds at 1.45 reflect his 71% implied win probability, a nod to his seamless transition from grass to hard courts after a strong US Open showing.

Cerundolo, the No. 83 Argentine, enters with a shaky 2026 ledger at just 1-1, making him the clear underdog at 2.93. While the match could stretch into a stamina-testing grinder—tipsters eyeing over 38.5 games—Thompson's sharper form and familiarity with these courts give him the edge. Algorithm picks from Forebet (55% for Thompson) and prediction markets (68¢ on him) align with the buzz, painting this as a gritty Aussie triumph.

Betting $1 on Thompson isn't just smart; it's a calculated ride on hometown momentum to kick off the tournament with profit.

Jordan Thompson strides into this Australian Open Men's clash as the overwhelming favorite, fueled by a wildcard entry and the electric home crowd at Melbourne Park. His recent US Open run demonstrates sharp hard-court form, while Juan Manuel Cerundolo's shaky 2026 start at 1-1 casts him as the underdog.

Betting markets echo this sentiment, with Thompson priced at 1.45 and Cerundolo at 2.93. Algorithm picks and trader buzz heavily back the Aussie, who is projected to use his stamina and local energy to navigate a gritty match.

For profitability, Thompson's odds present value given his high win probability, making him the strategic bet to secure a victory in this opening round.

Jordan Thompson enters this Australian Open clash as the clear favorite, and for good reason. The local wildcard holder has been generating significant buzz after a commendable US Open run that showcased his adaptability on hard courts. With Melbourne Park’s energy fueling him and a home crowd behind his back, Thompson's recent form gives him an edge over Juan Manuel Cerundolo. The Argentine, ranked No. 83, has struggled to find consistency in 2026, posting just a 1-1 record so far. His shaky start to the season raises doubts about his ability to handle the pressure of a Grand Slam opener against a player like Thompson.

The betting markets reflect this narrative, with Thompson priced at 1.45 compared to Cerundolo's 2.93. These odds align closely with prediction models and algorithm picks suggesting a strong likelihood of Thompson advancing. Forebet assigns him a 55% edge, while Robinhood traders are overwhelmingly backing the Aussie at 68¢ to win. Although Cerundolo could exploit any lapses in Thompson's game, his underdog status feels well-deserved given his current trajectory.

Expect a competitive match, but ultimately, Thompson's superior preparation and home advantage should see him through. His recent performances indicate he is more likely to sustain momentum across a best-of-five format, making him a safer bet despite the steep odds.