Betting tips from AI for Kamil Majchrzak vs Jacob Fearnley, 19 January 2026.

Majchrzak carries the clearer edge: he's the higher-ranked No.58 and models put him at about a 64% chance to win on Melbourne hard courts. Markets back that view — the book lists Kamil at 1.55 while Fearnley is priced at 2.60, roughly 63 cents on the dollar for the Pole.

Fearnley's Stockholm upset last October proves he's dangerous and he showed bite in Adelaide with an O'Connell scalp, but his results since have been mixed. Majchrzak's sharper buildup in Brisbane and superior ranking, combined with that model edge, make him the smart, value-backed play here on hard courts.

This Australian Open first-round clash pits the higher-ranked Kamil Majchrzak against Jacob Fearnley, a rematch with history. Majchrzak, ranked No. 58, enters as the favorite with prediction models giving him a 64% chance on these hard courts. The betting market aligns, favoring the Pole at 1.55. While Fearnley pulled off a stunning comeback win against Majchrzak in Stockholm last October, that was their only prior meeting, and Majchrzak will be seeking revenge on a Grand Slam stage. Majchrzak's recent form in Brisbane, including a tight loss to Halys, suggests he's sharp. Fearnley's Adelaide run was mixed, showing flashes but also inconsistency. Despite the past upset, Majchrzak's overall consistency, higher ranking, and the revenge narrative make him the stronger pick here. The value lies with the favorite to assert his dominance.

Majchrzak enters this Australian Open clash with a rankings advantage (No. 58 vs. No. 77) and favorable odds at 1.55, reflecting his higher standing on hard courts. While Fearnley claimed their only previous encounter in Stockholm last October, that indoor match required a third-set tiebreak after dropping the first set decisively.

Majchrzak's recent form in Brisbane showed promise despite his three-set loss to Halys, and his game traditionally translates well to the Melbourne conditions. Fearnley's Adelaide performances were inconsistent, with his losses to Vukic and Halys raising questions about his readiness for Grand Slam competition.

The Polish player's experience edge and superior ranking should prove decisive in the best-of-five format. While Fearnley at 2.60 offers tempting underdog value, Majchrzak's higher ceiling and more consistent baseline game make him the percentage play in this first-round matchup.

In the Australian Open's first round, Kamil Majchrzak faces Jacob Fearnley on Melbourne's hard courts, a matchup brimming with intrigue. Majchrzak, ranked No. 58, enters as the clear favorite at 1.55, backed by prediction models pegging his win probability at 64%. The Pole's recent form in Brisbane shows sharpness—he dispatched Cruz Hewitt but fell in a nail-biting three-setter to Quentin Halys, proving his resilience on these surfaces.

Fearnley, the No. 77 Brit, carries upset potential after shocking Majchrzak in their lone prior clash last October in Stockholm, rallying from a set down for a 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 thriller. His Adelaide run was mixed: a gritty win over Christopher O'Connell followed by losses to Aleksandar Vukic and Halys, testing his Grand Slam readiness. Yet, betting markets echo the crowd's wisdom, favoring Majchrzak at 63 cents on the dollar.

Majchrzak's higher ranking and hard-court experience tip the scales, making him the smart play for bettors eyeing value. While Fearnley's revenge narrative adds spice, the Pole's edge should prevail in straight sets.

Kamil Majchrzak enters as the clear favorite, ranked No. 58 to Jacob Fearnley's No. 77, with models pegging his win probability near 64%. Their sole prior clash saw Fearnley rally for a Stockholm upset, fueling a revenge narrative for the Pole on Melbourne's hard courts.
Majchrzak's steady form in Brisbane, including a win over Cruz Hewitt, contrasts with Fearnley's Adelaide rollercoaster—a bright upset of Christopher O'Connell but losses exposing vulnerabilities. At odds of 1.55, Majchrzak offers value given his experience and motivation to avenge last fall's defeat, while Fearnley's 2.60 payout tempts but seems risky against a focused higher seed.

Kamil Majchrzak enters this Australian Open first-round clash as the clear favorite, with bookmakers listing him at 1.55 compared to Jacob Fearnley's 2.60. The Pole's higher ranking (No. 58) and sharper recent form make him a logical pick for bettors eyeing consistency. Majchrzak has shown his ability to compete on hard courts, splitting matches in Brisbane and pushing deeper into tournaments regularly.

However, Fearnley cannot be dismissed outright. Their lone prior meeting last October in Stockholm saw the Brit claw back from a set down to stun Majchrzak 2-6, 6-3, 7-6—a result that could weigh on both players' minds. While Fearnley’s form in Adelaide was mixed, his upset of Christopher O’Connell proves he can rise to the occasion against ranked opponents. That said, Grand Slam pressure often separates experienced campaigners like Majchrzak from relative newcomers like Fearnley.

Prediction models give Majchrzak a 64% chance of victory, aligning closely with betting market expectations. At 1.55, the odds suggest he’s a strong but not overwhelming favorite. Given the matchup dynamics and Majchrzak’s proven track record on similar stages, backing the Pole seems the more profitable route despite Fearnley's potential for an upset.