Betting tips from AI for Karen Khachanov vs Alex Michelsen, 20 January 2026.

I back Karen Khachanov at 1.69. He arrives sharp after a Kooyong win over Frances Tiafoe, is seeded No.17 with a 58% hard‑court projection, and his booming serve and short‑point forehand suit the Australian Open hard courts. Michelsen, priced 2.28, is dangerous—he beat Khachanov twice in 2025, including a gritty AO upset—but his form is patchy with early exits in Auckland and inconsistencies versus top opponents.

Estimating Khachanov’s true chance around 60% makes a $1 stake a small positive EV: 0.60*(100/144) − 0.40 ≈ +$0.0166 (≈1.7¢). Michelsen would need >43.9% to justify 2.28; I rate him ~40–42%. Value and lower variance point to Khachanov as the profitable play.

This Australian Open clash between Karen Khachanov and Alex Michelsen presents a fascinating betting opportunity, especially considering Khachanov's 1.69 odds. Despite being the favorite and Andy Roddick's prediction for a deep run, Michelsen has already proved to be a formidable opponent, stunning Khachanov twice in 2025, including a gritty third-round comeback at last year's Australian Open. This history, which sees their head-to-head locked at 1-1, cannot be overlooked.

Khachanov comes in sharp after beating Frances Tiafoe at Kooyong, yet a recent loss in Hong Kong to Michael Mmoh shows vulnerability. His game, built on blasting wide serves and short-point forehands, is powerful. However, Michelsen's strategy of grinding rallies deep and employing backhand drops has previously disrupted Khachanov's rhythm, a blueprint for success established in their prior encounters.

While Michelsen's recent form has been a mixed bag, his ability to upset top players is evident. Given his proven track record against Khachanov, particularly at the Australian Open, and the attractive 2.28 odds, Michelsen offers excellent value. He has the mental edge and the tactical game to once again flip the script against the higher-ranked Russian.

While Alex Michelsen has shown flashes of brilliance against Khachanov, including that stunning Australian Open upset last year, recent form tells a different story. Khachanov enters with momentum after his impressive 6-4, 6-4 win over Tiafoe at Kooyong, demonstrating his hardcourt prowess. At world No. 17 and with a 58% win probability on this surface, the Russian's odds of 1.69 actually represent value.

Michelsen's recent performances have been inconsistent at best - reaching Brisbane semis but then falling early in Auckland to lower-ranked opponents. Andy Roddick's assessment of Khachanov's potential deep run speaks volumes.

Khachanov's tactical approach will likely prove decisive - his wide serving and aggressive short-point strategy should neutralize Michelsen's grinding style. Unless the American can consistently execute those backhand drops and extend rallies, Khachanov should avenge last year's defeat and justify his favorite status.

In the sweltering heat of Melbourne, Karen Khachanov faces a familiar foe in Alex Michelsen at the Australian Open. Khachanov, seeded No. 17, enters as the favorite at 1.69, and for good reason. The Russian's hardcourt prowess shines with a 58% win rate, powered by thunderous serves and blistering forehands that keep points short and sharp. Fresh off a straight-sets demolition of Frances Tiafoe at the Kooyong Classic, he's dialed in, even if a Hong Kong hiccup lingers.

Michelsen, the rising American at 2.28, packs a punch with grit and guile. He stunned Khachanov twice in 2025—once in a gritty third-round comeback here last year (6-3, 7-7, 6-5, 6-2) and again in Toronto's quarters—tying their head-to-head at 1-1. But his recent form is a mixed bag: a Brisbane upset over Learner Tien soured by a semis loss to Medvedev, plus early exits in Auckland. To win, he'll need to grind deep rallies and deploy those sneaky backhand dropshots.

Andy Roddick sees Khachanov pushing top seeds like Sinner if he clears this hurdle, and I agree. Experience edges out youth in a best-of-five; Khachanov's big-game mentality should prevail in four sets. Bet on the seed for steady profit.

Karen Khachanov enters this Australian Open clash as the favorite, with odds at 1.69 reflecting his No. 17 ranking and 58% hardcourt win probability. Andy Roddick's prediction of a deep run adds confidence, especially after Khachanov's sharp win over Frances Tiafoe at the Kooyong Classic.

However, Alex Michelsen cannot be overlooked, having stunned Khachanov twice in 2025, including a comeback victory here last year. His odds at 2.28 offer tempting value for an upset, but his recent mixed form with early exits in Auckland raises concerns.

Khachanov's ability to blast wide serves and dominate short points should give him the edge on these fast hardcourts. While Michelsen's backhand drops and grinding rallies could flip the script, Khachanov's consistency and experience make him the smarter bet for profit.

Karen Khachanov enters this Australian Open clash as the favorite with odds of 1.69, and for good reason. The Russian boasts a strong hardcourt game, thriving on his powerful serves and aggressive forehands, which are tailor-made for these conditions. Andy Roddick’s prediction that Khachanov could challenge top players like Sinner highlights his potential to go deep in the tournament if he overcomes early tests.

However, Alex Michelsen cannot be underestimated. His two victories over Khachanov in 2025, including an impressive comeback at last year's Australian Open, prove he has what it takes to outlast the No. 17 seed in tight battles. Michelsen’s ability to grind rallies and deploy clever backhand drops makes him dangerous when he finds rhythm. Yet, recent form raises questions—while he showed flashes of brilliance by upsetting Learner Tien, losses to lower-ranked opponents like Marcos Giron suggest inconsistency remains an issue.

Khachanov arrives sharper after defeating Frances Tiafoe convincingly at the Kooyong Classic exhibition. His experience and composure give him the edge in high-pressure moments. With bookmakers setting Michelsen’s odds at 2.28, there’s value in siding with the more consistent player who also happens to have the statistical advantage on hardcourts (58% win probability). This matchup leans toward Khachanov, provided he manages Michelsen’s counterpunching effectively.