Betting tips from AI for Khamzat Chimaev vs Caio Borralho, 01 January 2026.

I’m siding with Khamzat Chimaev. The market prices him as a heavy favorite at 1.20 against Caio Borralho (4.75), and for good reason: Chimaev is the dominant new middleweight king after dismantling Dricus du Plessis, and he already closed out the brutal first fight with Borralho by late knockout, proving he can weather Borralho’s grappling and still finish.

Borralho has touted a grappling edge and is trying to rebound after a loss to Nassourdine Imavov, with a marquee bounce-back bout against Reinier de Ridder on his docket — that shows promise but also recent inconsistency. Even with chatter that Chimaev may sit out around Ramadan, his power, pace and proven ability to adapt in wars with Borralho make him the safer, profit-minded play on a $1 bet: lower payout but much higher win probability.

Khamzat Chimaev, the undisputed UFC middleweight king, enters this rematch as a heavy favorite at 1.20, and for good reason. His recent crushing victory over Dricus du Plessis solidified his dominance. While fans still buzz about his 'epic past war' with Caio Borralho, it was Chimaev who ultimately secured a late knockout to remain undisputed. Borralho, despite his bold claims of being Chimaev's 'nightmare matchup' due to his grappling, couldn't finish the job last time. He's coming off his first UFC defeat to Imavov and faces Reinier de Ridder before this clash, which could be a momentum builder or another setback. However, Chimaev's proven finishing power and relentless style, even after a break until after Ramadan, make him the clear pick. The smart money remains on the champ to repeat his performance.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as the reigning UFC middleweight champion after his dominant performance against Dricus du Plessis. The odds heavily favor Chimaev at 1.20, reflecting his undefeated status and championship pedigree.

Caio Borralho, despite his recent loss to Nassourdine Imavov, remains a dangerous contender at 4.75. His upcoming fight with Reinier de Ridder could rebuild his momentum, but facing Chimaev is another level entirely.

Their previous encounter resulted in a Fight of the Night with Chimaev securing a late knockout after a back-and-forth war. While Borralho once claimed to be Chimaev's nightmare matchup due to his grappling skills, the champion has proven his wrestling dominance repeatedly.

Chimaev's extended break until after Ramadan in early 2026 gives him ample preparation time. His wrestling pedigree, knockout power, and championship experience make him the clear favorite to retain his title in what should be another thrilling contest.

In the heart of UFC middleweight madness, Khamzat Chimaev defends his throne against a resurgent Caio Borralho in what promises to be an explosive clash. Chimaev, fresh off demolishing Dricus du Plessis to claim undisputed gold, brings his signature relentless pressure and grappling wizardry that overwhelmed Borralho in their brutal past encounter—a Fight of the Night thriller ending in a late knockout after knockdowns and massive exchanges. That history weighs heavy, with Chimaev's undefeated streak in welterweight and middleweight making him the clear favorite at 1.20 odds.

Borralho, though, isn't backing down after his quick bounce-back from a loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He's vocal about being Chimaev's nightmare matchup, touting his grappling edge to counter the champ's wolf-like assaults. A win over Reinier de Ridder at UFC 326 could sharpen his tools, but facing the dominant kingpin so soon feels like climbing Everest without oxygen. Chimaev's sit-out until post-Ramadan only builds his mystique, priming him for destruction.

Betting value screams Chimaev—his power and cardio edge should seal another statement win, keeping title talk alive before his light heavyweight dreams. At 4.75 for Borralho, the underdog tempts, but the champ's proven he crushes pretenders.

Khamzat Chimaev reigns as the UFC middleweight champion after demolishing Dricus du Plessis, though his planned hiatus until after Ramadan in early 2026 adds a layer of uncertainty to his timing and sharpness.

Caio Borralho is rebounding fast from his loss to Nassourdine Imavov and has openly touted his grappling as a nightmare for Chimaev, echoing their brutal past Fight of the Night where Chimaev scored a late knockout.

While Chimaev is a heavy favorite at 1.20, Borralho's underdog odds of 4.75 offer tantalizing value for bettors eyeing an upset, but Chimaev's dominant track record and resilience make him the safer pick.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.20, and for good reason. The reigning UFC middleweight champion has been nothing short of dominant, showcasing his wrestling-heavy style and unrelenting pressure to dismantle top contenders like Dricus du Plessis. His last war with Caio Borralho was a Fight of the Night spectacle, but it ended with Chimaev’s signature late knockout, reinforcing his reputation as a finisher who thrives under pressure.

Caio Borralho, on the other hand, is riding high after a quick rebound from his first UFC loss against Nassourdine Imavov. With odds of 4.75, he’s clearly the underdog here, but his confidence remains sky-high. Borralho has publicly claimed that his grappling-centric approach is a nightmare matchup for Chimaev, and his recent performance against Reinier de Ridder could bolster his case. However, while Borralho’s grappling is elite, Chimaev’s versatility and cardio make him nearly impossible to outlast over multiple rounds.

The historical context matters too. Their previous encounter saw Chimaev absorb significant damage early but ultimately prevail through sheer willpower and precision striking. Given that Borralho hasn’t shown drastic improvements in his defensive vulnerabilities, it’s hard to see this fight playing out differently. Betting on Chimaev at 1.20 may not offer massive returns, but his consistency and finishing ability make him the safer, more logical pick.