Betting tips from AI for Khamzat Chimaev vs Israel Adesanya, 31 December 2025.

Khamzat Chimaev is my pick. The market makes him a heavy favorite at 1.14 while Israel Adesanya sits as a longshot at 5.80.

Chimaev's recent body of work — a first-round choke of Robert Whittaker and an unblemished streak — plus ESPN's talk of him bulldozing the division, gives him a clear stylistic and momentum edge. Even Adesanya has publicly shifted tone, praising Chimaev after UFC 319 chatter, which signals respect rather than vulnerability. The payout on 1.14 is modest, but the probability tilt and Chimaev's finish rate make him the prudent, profitable lean here.

The MMA world is electric for the unconfirmed welterweight banger between Khamzat Chimaev and Israel Adesanya, and the betting lines tell a clear story: Chimaev is a massive 1.14 favorite. 'Borz' is on an absolute tear, most recently choking out Robert Whittaker in the first round, extending his flawless record and signaling his readiness for a title run. ESPN isn't shy, calling him a bulldozer poised to dominate.
Even Israel Adesanya, who once dismissively called him 'Rat Lip,' has recently conceded Chimaev's dominance, hailing him as the fighter who's got the middleweight division locked down after his 'dominant UFC 319 demolition of Dricus du Plessis.' Adesanya himself stunned fans by predicting Chimaev would steamroll du Plessis in their UFC 319 showdown, a clear indication of the respect Chimaev commands. While Adesanya's striking is legendary, Chimaev's relentless pressure and elite grappling, combined with his current form, make him an incredibly tough out. Given the overwhelming odds and Chimaev's destructive momentum, it's hard to envision any other outcome.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this hypothetical matchup as a massive 1.14 favorite, and the odds are justified. Chimaev's grappling prowess has been unstoppable, as evidenced by his first-round submission of Robert Whittaker, one of the division's elite. His undefeated record speaks volumes.

What's telling is Adesanya's own acknowledgment of Chimaev's dominance. Despite previously calling him "Rat Lip," Adesanya has publicly changed his tune, even predicting Chimaev would steamroll Du Plessis. This psychological shift suggests Adesanya recognizes the threat.

Adesanya's striking brilliance gives him a puncher's chance at 5.80, but Chimaev's relentless takedowns present a stylistic nightmare. The Chechen wolf's combination of explosive entries and suffocating top control would likely neutralize Adesanya's kickboxing advantage.

Chimaev's path to victory is clear: close distance, secure takedowns, and hunt submissions - a formula that's worked flawlessly throughout his career.

Khamzat Chimaev is entering this welterweight showdown as an unstoppable force, fresh off a first-round chokeout of Robert Whittaker that keeps his record flawless and his title aspirations sky-high. The Wolf's relentless wrestling and finishing power have made him a nightmare for anyone in his path, and ESPN's bold call labeling upcoming contenders as mere stepping stones only amps up the hype. Meanwhile, Israel Adesanya, the former middleweight king, has shown his class by flipping the script—once dubbing Chimaev 'Rat Lip,' he's now praising the Dagestani phenom as the guy who's locked down the division after Chimaev's dominant UFC 319 demolition of Dricus du Plessis.

But praise aside, Adesanya's been out of the win column too long, and facing Chimaev's suffocating pressure in the clinch could expose any ring rust. The odds reflect this mismatch, with Chimaev a heavy 1.14 favorite against the +480 underdog Adesanya—no draw in sight at +3200, but that's irrelevant here. For bettors chasing profit on a $1 stake, laying it on Chimaev offers a smart, low-risk play with solid returns, banking on his momentum to overwhelm Izzy's striking wizardry early.

This isn't just a fight; it's Chimaev's coronation lap, and savvy punters know to ride the favorite when the tape doesn't lie.

Khamzat Chimaev's relentless rise continues to shock the MMA world, with Israel Adesanya himself flipping from critic to believer after hailing Chimaev's dominance. Chimaev's first-round chokeout of Robert Whittaker and Adesanya's bold prediction of his UFC 319 win over du Plessis underscore the Wolf's terrifying momentum.

Betting lines echo this, with Chimaev a massive 1.14 favorite against Adesanya's 5.80 underdog status. ESPN's call that Chimaev is poised to bulldoze top contenders only solidifies his edge.

While Adesanya's striking is elite, Chimaev's wrestling and finishing ability, backed by a perfect streak, should control this fight, making him the profitable pick despite the steep odds.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this matchup as a massive favorite with odds of 1.14, and for good reason. His recent performance at UFC 319, where he choked out Robert Whittaker in the first round, reinforced his reputation as one of the most dominant forces in MMA. Chimaev's grappling prowess and relentless pressure make him nearly impossible to handle for opponents, especially in the welterweight division.

Israel Adesanya, on the other hand, is known for his striking brilliance, but his odds of 5.80 reflect the uphill battle he faces against Chimaev's suffocating style. While Adesanya recently praised Chimaev's skills, calling him the man who has middleweight 'locked down,' this could be more respect than strategy. Adesanya’s striking might shine against lesser grapplers, but Chimaev’s wrestling-centric approach will likely neutralize his stand-up game early.

The betting line suggests that oddsmakers view this as a near foregone conclusion, with even the draw sitting at a distant 33.00. Given Chimaev’s flawless record and ESPN’s assertion that he’s poised to bulldoze any top contender, backing the favorite here feels like the smart play. Chimaev’s versatility and physicality should overwhelm Adesanya, leading to another decisive victory.