Betting tips from AI for Khamzat Chimaev vs Michael Page, 01 January 2026.

This is a small-value, high-upside play: take Michael Page at 11.00. The book implies a break-even upset chance of ~9.09% — bet $1 to win $10 — and Page's 4-0 UFC run plus elite striking makes that threshold reachable against a champion coming off a long layoff.

Khamzat is the dominant new king and the clear favorite at 1.05, but his post-title Ramadan layoff and a three-year grind to the belt inject real ring-rust risk. Given Page's momentum, stylistic upside and the huge payoff, the positive expected-value edge favors the underdog for a $1 speculative wager.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as the newly crowned middleweight king, a title he earned by dethroning Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319. His undefeated record and dominant performances, including demolishing Robert Whittaker, firmly establish him as a formidable force. The bookmakers reflect this, placing him as an overwhelming favorite at 1.05.

Michael Page, while on an impressive 4-0 UFC streak and coming off a unanimous decision over Jared Cannonier, faces a monumental task. His recent frustrations with matchmaking have seen him take spur-of-the-moment middleweight bouts, but Chimaev is a different beast entirely. Chimaev's relentless pressure, powerful wrestling, and improved striking present a nightmare matchup for Page's primarily stand-up, unorthodox style. The news about Chimaev's potential layoff for title defense in Q2 2026 doesn't diminish his current form or the sheer challenge he presents.

While the 1.05 odds offer minimal profit for a $1.01 bet, it represents the highest probability of success. Betting on the undisputed champion against a fighter stepping up in competition against such a dominant force is the most rational choice for a profitable bet, even with the small return. An upset by Page at 11.00 would be monumental, but highly improbable given Chimaev's current reign of terror.

Chimaev enters this bout as the overwhelming 1.05 favorite, and with good reason. The newly crowned middleweight champion dethroned Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319, cementing his status as the division's dominant force. His wrestling prowess and ground game present a nightmare matchup for Page.

Michael Page, despite his impressive 4-0 UFC run including a victory over Jared Cannonier, faces an uphill battle as a massive 11.00 underdog. Page has primarily competed at welterweight, making this middleweight clash against the larger Chimaev particularly challenging.

While Page's striking creativity could create interesting moments early, Chimaev's path to victory seems clear - close the distance, secure takedowns, and dominate on the ground. The champion's extended layoff (not defending until after Ramadan in Q2 2026) might introduce some ring rust, but the skill disparity appears too significant to overcome.

Khamzat Chimaev, the undefeated Chechen beast, has finally claimed middleweight gold by dethroning Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319, capping a three-year grind with sheer dominance. Fresh off demolishing Robert Whittaker last year, Chimaev's wrestling and finishing power make him a nightmare matchup. As the new champ, he's set to defend post-Ramadan in Q2 2026, but this hypothetical clash with Michael Page screams one-sided affair.

Michael Page is on fire with a 4-0 UFC streak, including a slick unanimous decision over Jared Cannonier, but his flashy striking style thrives at welterweight. Venting on the *Shxts ‘n’ Gigs* podcast about matchmaking headaches, Page eyes a London return against Leon Edwards—yet jumping to middleweight against Chimaev? That's a recipe for takedown hell. Page's lanky frame and kickboxing flair won't hold up against Chimaev's relentless pressure.

The odds tell the tale: Chimaev at 1.05 reflects his elite status, while Page's 11.00 tempts dreamers but screams value elsewhere. For a $1 bet, I'd skip this juice trap and hunt better spots, but Chimaev walks through Page like a title defense warm-up. Expect a first-round submission—Chimaev reigns supreme.

Khamzat Chimaev, fresh off dethroning Dricus du Plessis to claim the middleweight throne, is an undefeated powerhouse with a history of demolishing elite competition. His recent win over Robert Whittaker underscores his devastating skills.

Michael Page rides a 4-0 UFC streak but faces a steep climb; his spur-of-the-moment middleweight bouts highlight adaptability, yet Chimaev's relentless pressure and championship pedigree make him a formidable favorite at 1.05.

Despite Chimaev's planned layoff after Ramadan, this early 2026 matchup likely sees him active and dominant. Page's 11.00 odds are enticing, but the champ's proven track record offers the safer, profitable bet.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this hypothetical matchup as a massive favorite with odds of 1.05, reflecting his dominant run through the UFC’s middleweight division. Fresh off dethroning Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319, Chimaev has cemented himself as one of the most formidable forces in MMA. His grappling-heavy style and relentless pressure have overwhelmed elite opponents like Robert Whittaker, making him nearly untouchable in the cage.

On the other side, Michael Page brings an impressive 4-0 UFC streak into this contest, highlighted by his recent unanimous decision over Jared Cannonier. However, Page's frustration with matchmaking suggests he may not be operating at his optimal weight class consistently. While his striking is flashy and effective against mid-tier competition, it remains untested against someone with Chimaev’s suffocating wrestling and cardio.

The odds for Michael Page stand at 11.00, indicating a steep uphill battle. Even if Page lands some early strikes, Chimaev’s ability to close distance and control fights on the mat will likely prove decisive. Betting $1 on Chimaev might feel safe, but the juice here is minimal given the lopsided odds. Still, Chimaev’s track record makes him nearly impossible to bet against in this scenario.