Betting tips from AI for Khamzat Chimaev vs Reinier de Ridder, 31 December 2025.

I’m backing Reinier de Ridder as the value play. Khamzat Chimaev’s dominance is real—he just dethroned Dricus du Plessis—but that strength forces him to stay honest and chase takedown defense against a specialist. The market prices Chimaev at 1.14500.

De Ridder has the grappling pedigree to flip a fight: recent taps, a split decision over Whittaker, and confidence that he can take Chimaev down and attack from top or off his back. Mike Heck’s recent writeup backing de Ridder momentum into title contention adds credence to the upset scenario. Against longshots like this, a realistic upset probability (30%+) makes the 6.00 price attractive and the smartest $1 wager for upside.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as a dominant force, fresh off dethroning Dricus du Plessis with his signature suffocating control. The bookmakers reflect this with Chimaev as a heavy favorite at 1.14. However, Reinier de Ridder, "The Dutch Knight," is no ordinary challenger. He's confidently vowed to be the first to take Chimaev down and either choke him out or work from his back, a bold claim backed by a stellar run. De Ridder has been tearing through the division, stunning ex-champ Robert Whittaker and tapping three of his first four UFC opponents, cementing his status as a legitimate "grappler nightmare." While Chimaev's skill is undeniable, betting on a 1.14 favorite offers little return for the inherent volatility of MMA. De Ridder's specific skillset, his recent form, and his unwavering confidence in exploiting Chimaev's ground game make him a high-value underdog at 6.00. This fight presents a classic grappler vs. grappler clash where de Ridder's path to victory, though narrow, offers the most profitable outcome for a $1 wager.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as the heavy favorite at 1.14 after his dominant performance against Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319. His wrestling credentials and undefeated record speak volumes about his skill set. While Reinier de Ridder brings impressive grappling credentials and has boldly claimed he'll take Chimaev down, history suggests otherwise—no opponent has successfully taken Chimaev down in his UFC career.

De Ridder's confidence is admirable, especially after his stunning upset over Robert Whittaker and his submission prowess (tapping three of his first four UFC opponents). However, Chimaev's suffocating top control and relentless pressure present a different challenge altogether.

The odds heavily favor Chimaev for good reason. Though de Ridder at 6.00 offers tempting value, Chimaev's wrestling pedigree and perfect takedown defense make him the safer bet. Expect Chimaev to neutralize de Ridder's grappling and either dominate on the ground or keep the fight standing where he holds the advantage.

Khamzat Chimaev is the undisputed middleweight king after his suffocating takedown clinic against Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319, and now he's eyeing Reinier de Ridder in what promises to be a grappling showdown for the ages. Chimaev's undefeated streak and that cheeky 'RDR 💀' social media callout show he's locked in for his first title defense, bringing the same relentless pressure that's overwhelmed everyone in his path—no one's taken him down yet, and that's de Ridder's bold vow to change.

De Ridder, the Dutch Knight, is no slouch, fresh off a gritty split decision upset over Robert Whittaker and multiple submission wins in the UFC. He's primed, staying in camp non-stop and vowing to choke out Chimaev or pull off slick tricks from the bottom. MMA Fighting's Mike Heck sees him grinding out contenders like Brendan Allen, but against Chimaev's elite wrestling and cardio? It's a tall order.

The odds reflect this: Chimaev at 1.14 is the heavy favorite, while de Ridder's 6.00 tempts value hunters. But Chimaev's control game should neutralize de Ridder's BJJ wizardry, leading to a dominant decision or late sub. For a $1 bet, I'm all in on Chimaev to defend and keep his reign intact—this is his division to own.

Khamzat Chimaev enters his first title defense riding the momentum of dethroning Dricus du Plessis with suffocating control, as highlighted by his recent social media callout.

Reinier de Ridder's confidence stems from impressive wins, including over Robert Whittaker, and his vow to take Chimaev down poses a grappler's threat.

However, Chimaev's unbeaten record and dominance justify the heavy odds at 1.14, while de Ridder at 6.00 offers a risky payout. Chimaev's proven control should neutralize de Ridder's advances for a decisive victory.

Khamzat Chimaev enters this bout as a massive favorite with odds of 1.14, and for good reason. The undefeated Swedish wrecking ball has bulldozed through the competition, showcasing suffocating wrestling and relentless pressure. His recent dismantling of Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 only reinforced his reputation as one of the most dominant forces in MMA today. Chimaev's callout of Reinier de Ridder was dripping with confidence, signaling he believes this matchup is another stepping stone to cementing his legacy.

However, Reinier de Ridder isn't your average challenger. With odds of 6.00, “The Dutch Knight” presents a unique threat: elite grappling. De Ridder’s impressive split decision win over former champ Robert Whittaker demonstrated his ability to hang with top-tier talent. More importantly, his vow to take Chimaev down and choke him out highlights a clear game plan. If anyone can exploit a potential weakness in Chimaev’s armor, it’s a seasoned grappler like de Ridder.

That said, Chimaev’s takedown defense has been impeccable thus far, and his cardio is unmatched. Even if de Ridder finds brief success on the mat, Chimaev’s adaptability and power make it hard to imagine him losing. This fight might be closer than the odds suggest, but Chimaev’s versatility gives him the edge.

While de Ridder could pull off the upset, betting on Chimaev at 1.14 still feels like the safer, albeit less lucrative, play.