Betting tips from AI for Lecce vs AS Roma, 06 January 2026.

Roma arrive as clear favorites on paper at 1.79, and history favours the Giallorossi, but form and injuries blunt that edge. They’ve lost their last three away games, captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is sidelined and Artem Dovbyk is only just fit — factors that compress Roma’s true win probability below the market’s comfort level.

Lecce are buzzing after a gritty 1-1 at Juventus, with Falcone’s penalty heroics and Banda’s stunner proving they can be stubborn at home. Against that backdrop a home upset isn’t fanciful, and the market’s +424 price on Lecce is juicy value compared with a draw at 3.51 or the short favourite.

Betting rationale: backing Lecce at 5.24 offers strong positive expected value if you assign them ~20–25% chance given Roma’s away slump and absences. For $1 the upside outweighs the historical ledger — I’ll take the priced upset.

This Serie A clash at Stadio Via del Mare pits a struggling AS Roma away side against a rejuvenated Lecce. While Roma are clear favorites with bookmakers at 1.79, their recent form on the road is a major red flag, having dropped their last three away games. Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini's absence further complicates matters for the Giallorossi, who desperately need to halt their slide to secure a top-four spot.
Lecce, fresh off a gritty 1-1 draw at Juventus, are showing resilience. Despite a dismal historical record against Roma, their current spirit, exemplified by Lameck Banda's stunner and Falcone's penalty heroics, suggests they can hold their own. Sports Mole even predicts a tight 0-1 Roma win, indicating a low-scoring affair. Given Roma's significant road woes and Lecce's newfound belief, a draw at 3.51 offers tremendous value. This fixture screams a feisty, low-scoring encounter where both teams could cancel each other out.

Roma enter as favorites at 1.79 despite their concerning away form, having dropped their last three road fixtures. Lecce's recent resilience shouldn't be overlooked—their 1-1 draw at Juventus showcased both Banda's scoring touch and Falcone's goalkeeping prowess. However, history heavily favors the visitors, with Lecce managing just two league wins in 38 meetings against the Giallorossi.

While Roma are navigating injuries to key players like Pellegrini, they should have enough quality to edge this contest. Their 1-0 win at Stadio Via del Mare last season provides a blueprint for success. Lecce's defensive organization under Di Francesco has improved, but Roma's need for points in their top-four chase should provide the necessary motivation.

Expect a tight, potentially low-scoring affair with Roma eventually breaking through. The 1.79 odds offer reasonable value considering the significant quality gap between the squads, despite Lecce's recent uptick in form.

Roma head to Lecce's Stadio Via del Mare as clear favorites, with odds at 1.79 reflecting their 52-58% win probability. They've dominated this fixture historically, claiming just two league losses in 38 meetings, including a gritty 1-0 victory there last season. Sports Mole's prediction of a 0-1 Roma win captures the low-scoring vibe, as neither side is a goal machine.

Lecce, though, are riding high after a resilient 1-1 draw at Juventus, where Lameck Banda's stunner and Wladimiro Falcone's penalty save shone amid 26 shots faced. That grit could make this feisty, with over 4.5 cards likely. Yet Roma's desperation to end three straight away defeats and chase a top-four spot fuels their edge—especially with Artem Dovbyk potentially starting up top after his thigh knock.

Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini is out with a hamstring, and Tommaso Baldanzi plus Leon Bailey are doubtful, but Roma's quality should prevail in a tight affair. Lecce's home resilience tempts the 5.24 underdog price, but I'll back Roma for the narrow win—value in their head-to-head mastery despite the road woes.

AS Roma are clear favorites with odds at 1.79, reflecting expert win probabilities of 52-58% after dominating recent head-to-heads, including a 1-0 victory here last season. Despite their three-game away losing streak, Roma's top-four chase and returning striker Artem Dovbyk should overcome Lecce's resilience after a gritty draw at Juventus.
Lecce's historical woes—just two league wins in 38 meetings—and Roma's desperation make the Giallorossi the value pick, even with captain Lorenzo Pellegrini sidelined. Expect a narrow, feisty Roma win in a low-scoring affair.

AS Roma enters this Serie A clash against Lecce as the clear favorites, with odds of 1.79 reflecting their 52-58% win probability. Despite their recent struggles on the road—having lost three consecutive away games—they hold a significant psychological edge over Lecce, boasting just two defeats in their last 38 meetings. This historical dominance, coupled with their narrow 1-0 victory at Stadio Via del Mare last season, suggests Roma can grind out results even when not at their best.
Lecce, meanwhile, has shown resilience under Eusebio Di Francesco, highlighted by their commendable 1-1 draw at Juventus. Wladimiro Falcone’s heroics and Lameck Banda’s goal-scoring ability could keep them competitive here. However, they face an uphill battle against a Roma side desperate to secure three points in their pursuit of a top-four finish. The absence of Lorenzo Pellegrini is a blow, but Artem Dovbyk’s potential inclusion adds firepower up front for the visitors.
The odds for a draw stand at 3.51, tempting given both teams' defensive tendencies and Lecce's knack for low-scoring affairs. Yet, Roma’s pressing need for a win, combined with Lecce’s limited offensive threat, tilts the balance toward a tight away victory. With betting experts favoring a 0-1 scoreline, backing Roma seems prudent despite their shaky away form.
Ultimately, Roma’s pedigree and desperation for points outweigh Lecce’s home advantage. While the hosts may frustrate, the Giallorossi should edge this contest.