Betting tips from AI for Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman, 31 December 2025.

This trilogy has story and stakes. Leon Edwards goes in as champion, riding the memory of that miraculous head-kick KO which stole the belt at UFC 278 three years ago. He’s confident and comfortable defending the strap; the market prices him at 1.88.

Kamaru Usman remains a top-level technician — he snapped a 15-fight win streak and dominated large portions of their second meeting. His pressure, wrestling and cardio create real problems; he’s also listed at 1.88.

Edge to Edwards. His clear evolution in takedown defense and fight-ending power give him the cleaner path to victory against Usman’s grinding style. At symmetric odds of 1.88, I’d back Leon for value and momentum.

The highly anticipated trilogy bout between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman presents a fascinating betting puzzle, with bookmakers setting both fighters at 1.88. Edwards is undoubtedly riding a wave of confidence since his 'miracle' head-kick KO snatched the welterweight belt three years ago at UFC 278. However, the narrative of that fight often overshadows Usman's dominant performance leading up to that fifth-round finish. Usman, the former champ, famously 'stalked and grounded Edwards for four rounds' in their second clash. His hunger to reclaim dominance after his impressive 15-fight UFC win streak was snapped is undeniable. While Edwards has shown he can end a fight in an instant, Usman's consistent pressure, wrestling, and ability to control the pace of a fight are proven. Expect Usman to learn from his one mistake, revert to his dominant wrestling-heavy approach, and reclaim the title. His ability to control the fight for extended periods makes him the more reliable pick here.

This trilogy bout between Edwards and Usman presents a fascinating betting proposition with dead-even 1.88 odds for both fighters. The narrative centers on that spectacular fifth-round head kick that changed Edwards' career trajectory and ended Usman's dominance.

Despite the highlight-reel finish, we can't ignore that Usman controlled approximately 19 minutes of their 22-minute rematch. Edwards' miracle kick came when he was clearly down on the scorecards. Usman's wrestling prowess, cage control, and overall championship experience suggest he'll make tactical adjustments to avoid another late-fight lapse.

Edwards has undoubtedly grown in confidence since claiming the belt, but Usman's consistent ability to implement his gameplan across multiple rounds makes him the value play here. Expect a more cautious Usman who mixes striking with timely takedowns while maintaining better defensive awareness in the championship rounds.

The trilogy bout between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman promises fireworks in the welterweight division, with both fighters hungry to settle the score. Edwards, the reigning champ, stunned the world at UFC 278 with that iconic fifth-round head-kick KO, snatching the belt from Usman after being dominated for four rounds. Riding high on that momentum, 'Rocky' has defended his title convincingly, showcasing elite striking and resilience.

Usman, the former dominant force with a snapped 15-fight win streak, controlled their second clash in Salt Lake City, grounding Edwards relentlessly before the upset. Now, three years later, the ex-champ is laser-focused on reclaiming his throne, leveraging his wrestling pedigree and cardio to grind out a victory.

At even money with both at 1.88, it's a coin flip, but Edwards' growth in takedown defense and knockout power tips the scales. The draw at 33.00 is a longshot in MMA's chaos. I'll back Edwards to defend in a grueling war, landing that precision to edge out the win.

Leon Edwards rides the momentum of his miraculous head-kick KO that dethroned Kamaru Usman three years ago, entering this trilogy as the defending welterweight champion. Usman, the former champ with a snapped 15-fight win streak, is driven to reclaim dominance after controlling most of their second clash before the late upset.

The odds are perfectly balanced at 1.88 for each fighter, highlighting the razor-thin margin expected. Edwards' refined striking and psychological edge from his past victory provide a critical advantage, while Usman's relentless wrestling and hunger pose a formidable threat.

In a bout where opportunities are scarce, Edwards' proven ability to seize moments under pressure makes him the value pick for a profitable bet.

This welterweight trilogy bout between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman is shaping up to be one of the most compelling MMA matchups in recent memory. Both fighters are listed at 1.88, indicating that bookmakers see this as a near-even fight, but diving deeper into their history reveals intriguing dynamics. Edwards’ miraculous head-kick KO in their last encounter not only shifted momentum in his favor but also exposed a potential flaw in Usman’s late-fight composure. That knockout still looms large in fans’ minds, yet Usman’s relentless pressure and grappling dominance were on full display for much of their second clash.

Usman’s hunger to reclaim the belt cannot be underestimated. After losing his undefeated UFC streak, he’ll likely come out with calculated aggression, aiming to avoid another fifth-round collapse. However, Edwards has grown immensely since capturing the title. His confidence is peaking, and his ability to adapt under pressure makes him dangerous in any round. With odds at 1.88 for both competitors, bettors aren’t getting significant value—but leaning toward Edwards feels more strategic given his proven ability to thrive in high-stakes moments against Usman.

The draw option, priced at 33.00, is tempting for its long-shot appeal but highly unlikely in a rivalry defined by decisive finishes. Ultimately, Edwards’ versatility and mental edge give him the slight nod here.