Betting tips from AI for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, 22 November 2025.

Market has this lined up as a classic home-favorite spot, and for good reason. Liverpool at Anfield with Mohamed Salah marking his 300th appearance, Alisson Becker slated to return, and the Kop in full voice creates a high-baseline performance environment. The moneyline price of 1.48 implies roughly a 67.7% win probability, and I rate the true chance a few points higher given the setup and personnel news.

Liverpool’s recent wobble (one shot on target in the 3-0 loss to City) reads worse than it projects at home. Under Arne Slot, they’ve taken four of their last five league matches at Anfield, and the expected threat remains healthy when they face mid-to-low blocks in front of their supporters. Alisson’s return is a big under-the-hood upgrade: his shot-stopping and command reduce variance on crosses and set pieces—Forest’s most plausible paths to an upset. With Salah chasing a milestone and the reported front line of Isak–Salah–Gakpo offering multiple finishing angles, Liverpool should generate enough repeatable looks to push this over the line.

Forest under Sean Dyche are undeniably tougher. The recent offensive surge (2.55 xG versus Leeds) and the physical style Ian Wright alluded to will translate into pressure moments, especially on restarts. But the away sample is poor (winless in five), Hudson-Odoi’s absence dulls their one-v-one edge in transition, and Anfield historically suppresses visiting shot quality—even against robust, direct sides. Dyche’s approach can force a grind, yet without the extra winger threat and with Alisson back, the edge swings toward Liverpool managing the key moments.

From a betting perspective, the number is still backable. Break-even on 1.48 is 67.7%. I project Liverpool around 71–73%, draw 17–19%, Forest 8–11%. That produces a modest positive expected value on the home moneyline: at 72%, the EV on a $1 stake is about +$0.06. By contrast, the draw at 4.74 needs ~21% (I’m south of that), and Forest at 6.68 needs ~15% (I’m well below). With Alisson stabilizing the defense and Salah’s milestone boosting urgency, Liverpool’s floor is high enough to justify the chalk.

Recommendation: $1 on Liverpool to win at 1.48. It’s not flashy, but it’s the clearest path to a positive long-run return in this market.

This Premier League clash at Anfield presents a classic trap game scenario, but several key factors point decisively towards a Liverpool victory, despite the tempting odds on a Nottingham Forest upset (6.68) or a draw (4.74).

Nottingham Forest, revitalized under the pragmatic leadership of Sean Dyche, will undoubtedly arrive with a game plan designed to frustrate. As Ian Wright noted, they are a more physical and organized unit, and they will aim to disrupt Liverpool's rhythm and capitalize on set-pieces. Their shock win at Anfield last season will fuel their belief that they can repeat the feat. However, that victory came against a different Liverpool side, and Forest are now facing a significant handicap.

The most critical piece of news for Liverpool is the expected return of Alisson Becker in goal. The Brazilian's absence has been keenly felt, and his reintroduction provides an immense boost to defensive stability and confidence. A secure backline, marshaled by one of the world's best goalkeepers, is the perfect foundation to repel the direct, physical threat that a Dyche team poses. This single change significantly diminishes Forest's chances of finding a way through.

On the attacking front, the emotional significance of this match cannot be overstated. Mohamed Salah is set to make his 300th appearance for the club. These milestone occasions at Anfield often create a special atmosphere and inspire legendary performances. Salah will be exceptionally motivated to mark the day with a goal, and his teammates will be eager to secure a win for him. This added emotional impetus, combined with Liverpool's potent attack, will put immense pressure on the Forest defense.

While Forest have shown offensive improvement, the loss of Callum Hudson-Odoi to injury is a massive blow. He was the hero in last season's victory at Anfield, and his pace and creativity would have been their primary weapon on the counter-attack. Without him, their ability to threaten Liverpool on the break is severely blunted. This, coupled with their dismal away form—winless in their last five on the road—paints a bleak picture for their trip to one of the league's most formidable fortresses.

Ultimately, while Forest will be tough to break down, the combination of Liverpool's dominant home form, the crucial return of Alisson, the powerful motivation surrounding Salah's milestone, and Forest's key attacking injury points to only one outcome. The 1.48 odds on a home win are short for a reason; it's the most probable result. Expect a professional performance from Liverpool as they grind down a resilient but ultimately outmatched Forest side.

This Anfield clash presents a fascinating tactical battle that goes beyond the surface-level odds favoring Liverpool at 1.48. While the bookmakers heavily back the home side, several compelling factors suggest this match could be far more competitive than expected.

Liverpool's recent form raises genuine concerns. Their toothless display against Manchester City, managing just one shot on target in a 3-0 defeat, exposed serious attacking deficiencies. Although Alisson's return provides defensive stability, the absence of Jeremie Frimpong continues to impact their tactical flexibility. Mohamed Salah's milestone 300th appearance adds emotional weight, but milestone games can sometimes create additional pressure rather than inspiration.

Nottingham Forest under Sean Dyche represents a completely different proposition from previous seasons. Their recent high xG performance (2.55) against Leeds demonstrates improved attacking intent, while Dyche's pragmatic approach has instilled the kind of defensive resilience that historically troubles Liverpool. Forest's shock victory at Anfield last season wasn't a fluke - it highlighted Liverpool's vulnerability to well-organized, physical opponents who can disrupt their rhythm.

The injury to Callum Hudson-Odoi, last season's match-winner at Anfield, does weaken Forest's attacking options. However, their five-game winless away run might actually work in their favor, reducing pressure and allowing them to play with freedom against a Liverpool side showing signs of fragility.

Liverpool's four wins in five home games under Arne Slot suggests Anfield remains a fortress, but their recent performances indicate they're not the dominant force the 1.48 odds suggest. Forest's improved defensive structure under Dyche, combined with their proven ability to frustrate Liverpool, makes them dangerous opponents.

Given Forest's enhanced odds at 6.68 and their tactical evolution under Dyche, this represents exceptional value. While Liverpool starts as favorites, Forest's defensive improvements and Liverpool's recent struggles create the perfect storm for an upset.

Liverpool hosts Nottingham Forest at Anfield in what promises to be a thrilling Premier League clash, with the Reds looking to bounce back from a mixed run of form. The home side is heavily favored by bookmakers at 1.48, reflecting their strong historical edge and current squad depth. Mohamed Salah's 300th appearance for Liverpool adds an emotional layer, likely fueling extra motivation for the team and the passionate Anfield crowd. With Alisson Becker returning in goal after injury, Liverpool's defense should regain its solidity, addressing vulnerabilities seen in recent matches like the 3-0 loss to Manchester City where they managed only one shot on target.

Nottingham Forest, under new manager Sean Dyche, has shown signs of improvement, particularly offensively, as evidenced by their high xG of 2.55 in the recent win over Leeds. However, their away form is a concern, with no wins in the last five road games. The absence of key attacker Callum Hudson-Odoi, who scored the winner at Anfield last season, weakens their options significantly. While Forest shocked Liverpool at home last year and aims for back-to-back away wins there for the first time since 1963, their physical style might test the Reds, but it could also play into Liverpool's hands with quick counters led by Salah, Gakpo, and Swedish striker Isak.

Pundits are divided: Ian Wright warns of Forest's resilience under Dyche, calling them a 'different animal,' while Roy Keane backs Liverpool's home record and Salah's milestone to inspire a strong response. Liverpool has won four of their last five home league matches under Arne Slot, which bodes well against a Forest side that's improved but still lacks consistency on the road. The odds for Forest stand at 6.68, offering tempting value for an upset, and the draw at 4.74 might appeal to those seeing a gritty, low-scoring affair. Yet, with no major weather issues and Anfield's intense atmosphere, I see Liverpool overpowering Forest's challenge.

From a betting perspective, backing Liverpool at 1.48 might not yield the highest returns, but it's the safest play given the stats and news. If you're chasing value, a small stake on over 2.5 goals could complement this, considering both teams' recent attacking outputs. However, Forest's defensive improvements under Dyche suggest a tighter game than the odds imply. Ultimately, Liverpool's quality and home advantage should prevail, making them my pick to win and continue their push in the title race.

This Premier League showdown at Anfield is charged with narrative, as Liverpool aims to capitalize on their home advantage against a revamped Nottingham Forest. Mohamed Salah's 300th appearance for the Reds adds a emotional layer that could spark extra intensity from the squad and electrify the home crowd. With Alisson Becker returning between the posts, Liverpool's defense gains much-needed stability after recent vulnerabilities, such as in the 3-0 loss to Manchester City where they managed just one shot on target. Under Arne Slot, the team has shown dominance at home, winning four of their last five league matches at Anfield, which bodes well for their chances.

However, Ian Wright's caution about Forest's physical approach under Sean Dyche is worth noting. Dyche has instilled a gritty, organized style that helped Forest post a high xG of 2.55 in their win over Leeds, indicating improved offensive threat. Forest's shock victory at Anfield last season proves they can upset the odds, but the absence of Callum Hudson-Odoi—their match-winner from that game—diminishes their attacking options. Their poor away form, with no wins in five, remains a concern, though Dyche's men are capable of frustrating opponents.

The bookmaker odds heavily favor Liverpool at 1.48, while Nottingham Forest is a long shot at 6.68 and the draw sits at 4.74. While the draw could appeal given Forest's resilience and Liverpool's occasional struggles, the combination of Liverpool's home record, key returnees, and Salah's milestone tilt the probability toward a home win. For bettors, Liverpool offers a reasonable value at these odds, aligning with the expected outcome based on form and motivation.

Liverpool enters this fixture as the overwhelming favorite, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.48 for a win. These odds reflect both their historical dominance at Anfield and their superior squad quality, but recent developments suggest this may not be the straightforward victory many anticipate. Nottingham Forest, now under the management of Sean Dyche, has undergone a tactical transformation that prioritizes defensive solidity and physicality. This approach has already yielded positive results, including a notable xG performance of 2.55 in their recent victory over Leeds. Dyche’s influence makes them a much tougher opponent than they were even last season when they famously upset Liverpool at Anfield.
While Liverpool boasts a strong home record—winning four of their last five league matches at Anfield—their recent form has been inconsistent. A 3-0 loss to Manchester City highlighted significant issues, particularly in attack, where they managed only one shot on target. Although Alisson Becker’s return from injury should provide stability at the back, the absence of Jeremie Frimpong and continued reliance on Isak alongside Salah could limit their attacking fluidity. Salah himself will be motivated by his milestone 300th appearance for the club, but emotional factors can sometimes lead to overcompensation or misplaced urgency on the pitch."For Nottingham Forest, their resilience under Dyche cannot be overstated. Despite lacking a win in their last five away games, their performances have shown marked improvement compared to previous campaigns. The absence of Callum Hudson-Odoi—a player who scored against Liverpool at Anfield last season—is undoubtedly a blow, yet Forest’s newfound ability to compete physically and tactically suggests they won’t crumble easily. Their high pressing and direct style could disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm, especially given the Reds’ vulnerability to counterattacks exposed against Manchester City."The market odds suggest little chance of an upset, with Nottingham Forest priced at 6.68 and a draw available at 4.74. However, betting markets often underestimate the impact of managerial changes and stylistic matchups. Dyche’s teams are notoriously difficult to break down, and Forest’s improved offensive capabilities make them more than capable of capitalizing on Liverpool’s occasional lapses in concentration. Moreover, Roy Keane’s comments about Anfield’s atmosphere potentially inspiring Liverpool must be weighed against Ian Wright’s cautionary note about Forest’s renewed identity."From a value perspective, backing Nottingham Forest outright might seem overly ambitious, but the draw represents a compelling proposition. Both teams possess enough quality to find the net, yet neither appears dominant enough to control the entire match. Liverpool’s struggles to convert chances consistently, combined with Forest’s organized defense, point toward a tightly contested affair. Additionally, the psychological boost of having secured a shock win here last season could embolden Forest further."In conclusion, while Liverpool remains the most likely winner on paper, the contextual nuances—including Dyche’s impact, Salah’s potential pressure to perform, and Forest’s growing confidence—create a scenario ripe for a draw. At 4.74, the draw offers excellent value relative to the likelihood of its occurrence.