Betting tips from AI for Lorenzo Musetti vs Tomas Machac, 23 January 2026.

This third-round Australian Open duel feels closer than the lines suggest. Musetti has the higher seed, a Hong Kong final recently and a sharp win over Sonego, and the market installs him as favorite at 1.65. Cheryl’s read on fresher legs for Musetti is fair, but it’s far from decisive.
Machac arrives boiling hot — Adelaide champion, seven-match win streak and a shock of Tsitsipas, plus a 2024 head-to-head win over Musetti. Andreas’ upset call isn’t hype: momentum and confidence swing big in best-of-five.
At 2.36 Machac is value. I back Tomas Machac to exploit his form and the thin favorite margin.

This third-round clash between Lorenzo Musetti and Tomas Machac has all the makings of a thriller, with experts divided on the outcome. While Musetti comes in hot, reaching the Hong Kong final and dominating Sonego, the real value lies with the surging Czech.

Machac is riding an incredible wave, clinching the Adelaide title and extending a seven-match win streak, including a stunning victory over Tsitsipas. Crucially, he also holds a 2024 head-to-head win over Musetti. Despite concerns about fatigue from his gritty second-round match, Machac's current momentum and confidence are sky-high, as noted by Andreas at Last Word on Sports calling the upset.

At 2.36, Machac presents a compelling betting opportunity. His recent form and proven ability to beat Musetti make him the smart play here, even against the favorite at 1.65. Expect a battle, but Machac's hot streak is too strong to ignore.

Musetti enters as the favorite at 1.65 for good reason. His recent form, including a Hong Kong final appearance and dominant win over Sonego, showcases his top-5 credentials. While Machac (2.36) brings momentum from his Adelaide title and impressive victory over Tsitsipas, this matchup favors Musetti's technical prowess.

Machac's seven-match winning streak is impressive, and his 2024 head-to-head victory over Musetti raises eyebrows. However, Grand Slam tennis demands another level of consistency. Musetti's fresher legs will prove decisive in the later stages, especially if this becomes the five-set thriller experts like Cheryl and Ateet anticipate.

The Italian's tactical acumen and superior ranking (No. 5 vs. Machac's No. 24) should ultimately prevail. While Machac has the firepower for an upset, Musetti's more complete game and sharper form make him the smarter bet, likely winning in four competitive sets.

In this electrifying Australian Open third-round clash, Lorenzo Musetti enters as the favorite at 1.65, facing a surging Tomas Machac priced at 2.36. Musetti, the No. 5 seed, has been razor-sharp, dismantling compatriot Sonego in the second round after reaching the Hong Kong final earlier this year. His fresher legs give him a clear advantage over Machac, who endured a gritty battle against Tsitsipas in round two.

Machac's momentum is undeniable, though—riding a seven-match win streak capped by his Adelaide title last week and a 2024 head-to-head upset over Musetti. Experts like Andreas at Last Word on Sports are eyeing the Czech for another shock, but the consensus leans toward Musetti's superior form and Slam pedigree.

This could be a five-set thriller, as predicted by Cheryl from TennGrand and Ateet, but Musetti's ruthless edge should prevail. Betting $1 on Musetti at 1.65 offers solid value for a profitable edge in this ranked showdown.

The Australian Open third-round showdown pits fifth-seeded Lorenzo Musetti against the surging Tomas Machac, with bookmakers favoring Musetti at 1.65 over Machac's enticing 2.36.

Musetti's razor-sharp form is evident from his ruthless straight-sets dismissal of Sonego, backed by a fresher physique after a less taxing second round—a critical edge in what pundits like Cheryl forecast as a grueling battle.

Yet Machac's seven-match win streak, highlighted by an Adelaide title and a stunning upset of Tsitsipas, coupled with a 2024 head-to-head victory, fuels his upset bid. However, Musetti's higher ranking and consistency, including a Hong Kong final run, should prevail in a tense four or five-set thriller, offering solid value at current odds.

Lorenzo Musetti and Tomas Machac are set to clash in a highly anticipated third-round match at the Australian Open. Musetti, ranked No. 5, comes into this match with a strong performance against Sonego, showcasing his sharp form and ability to dominate on the court. Despite Machac's impressive seven-match win streak and his recent victory over Tsitsipas, which has fueled his momentum, Musetti's fresher legs and higher ranking suggest he might have the upper hand. Cheryl from TennGrand predicts a grueling five-set battle, but ultimately backs Musetti due to his physical advantage. Yesh also sees Musetti pulling away in straight sets, highlighting that while the top seed may not be fully Slam-ready, he still outclasses Machac. The odds favor Musetti at 1.65, reflecting his stronger position, but Machac's 2.36 underdog status cannot be completely dismissed given his recent form and head-to-head victory in 2024. However, the overall form and consistency of Musetti make him the more likely bet in this match.