Betting tips from AI for Mallorca vs Athletic Bilbao, 17 January 2026.

This La Liga clash feels like a classic road test: Athletic Bilbao arrive as the more likely outcome according to both bookmakers and local models — the market lists Bilbao at 2.26 while Mallorca sit long at 3.77 and the draw is 3.06. The simulation gives Bilbao a solid 44% shot, Mallorca 27% and draw 28%, and Bilbao's eight-game unbeaten H2H edge matters.

Mallorca's injuries to Mores, Raillo and Iván Cuéllar plus Maffeo's suspension have thinned their defense at a crucial moment, and they sit only a point above relegation after poor form. Bilbao's Copa boost offsets league wobble; with under 2.5 goals hitting 62% of similar profiles, I expect a tight, low-scoring Bilbao win.

Mallorca finds themselves in a precarious position, teetering on the edge of the relegation zone at 17th, compounded by a four-game winless streak and critical injury woes to key defenders like Mores and Raillo, plus Pablo Maffeo's suspension. This severely thins their defensive options against a capable Athletic Bilbao side. Bilbao, despite a recent league wobble, holds a significant advantage in head-to-head encounters, being unbeaten in eight straight against Mallorca. Their advanced simulation model further supports this, giving them a 44% chance of victory, aligning perfectly with the bookmaker's odds of 2.26. While pundits are split, the sheer depth of Mallorca's current crisis, combined with Bilbao's historical dominance and a recent Copa del Rey morale boost, points towards an away victory. Expect a tight affair, with under 2.5 goals predicted at 62%, but Bilbao should ultimately prevail.

Athletic Bilbao looks primed to capitalize on Mallorca's current struggles. The hosts sit precariously in 17th place, just a point above relegation and riding a four-game winless streak with back-to-back 2-1 defeats. Their defensive options are severely limited with Mores, Raillo, and Cuellar all sidelined through injury, plus Maffeo suspended.

Bilbao, despite their own recent league inconsistency, hold a significant psychological edge with an eight-match unbeaten run against Mallorca. Their midweek Copa del Rey victory should provide a confidence boost as they push toward European qualification. The advanced simulation model giving Bilbao a 44% win probability aligns with the bookmaker odds of 2.26, offering decent value.

While Mallorca has managed draws in four of their last five home meetings with Bilbao, their current injury crisis and poor form make even a point difficult to envision. Expect Bilbao to secure a narrow away victory, potentially 0-1 or 1-2, continuing their dominance in this fixture.

In a La Liga clash that screams tension, Mallorca host Athletic Bilbao at Son Moix, with the hosts battling relegation blues and the visitors eyeing Europe. Mallorca, 17th and a mere point from the drop zone, are desperate after four winless games, including back-to-back 2-1 defeats. Their defense is in tatters with injuries to Mores, Raillo, and Ivan Cuellar, plus suspension for Pablo Maffeo—making it a perfect storm for Bilbao to exploit.

Athletic Bilbao, eighth with 24 points, are five behind the European spots but stumbling winless in four of five league outings. Yet, their head-to-head dominance shines: unbeaten in eight against Mallorca, including a 2-1 win last time. Advanced models peg Bilbao at 44% to win, against Mallorca's 27% and a 28% draw chance, with under 2.5 goals likely at 62%—pointing to a cagey, low-scoring affair.

Pundits are divided, some eyeing a gritty 1-2 Bilbao road win, others a draw given Mallorca's home grit. But with Bilbao's superior form and H2H edge, plus Mallorca's injury crisis, I'm betting on the visitors to grind out a victory. The odds tempt at 2.26 for Bilbao, offering solid value for a profitable $1 wager in this survival scrap.

Mallorca are desperate to halt their slide, sitting 17th with a four-game winless streak and defensive woes from injuries and suspensions thinning their backline.

Athletic Bilbao, eighth and chasing Europe, have been inconsistent on the road, winless in four of five league outings despite a midweek Copa del Rey lift.

Head-to-head trends show Bilbao unbeaten in eight, but Mallorca have drawn four of the last five at home, highlighting their resilience at Son Moix.

With pundits split and Bilbao's simulation model giving them a 44% win probability, the odds at 2.26 for an away victory offer little value, while the draw at 3.06 aligns with the hosts' grit and visitors' away struggles in a likely low-scoring clash.

Athletic Bilbao enters this La Liga clash with a psychological edge over Mallorca, having gone unbeaten in their last eight head-to-head meetings. The advanced metrics paint an even clearer picture: Bilbao boasts a 44% win probability according to their simulation model, while Mallorca lags at just 27%. These numbers align well with the bookmaker odds, where Bilbao is favored at 2.26, compared to Mallorca's 3.77.

Mallorca’s recent form is concerning. They’ve lost four consecutive matches and are battling injuries to key defenders like Mores, Raillo, and Ivan Cuellar, as well as a suspension for Pablo Maffeo. This defensive crisis could prove costly against an Athletic Bilbao side eager to climb into European contention. Although Bilbao has struggled on the road this season, they showed signs of life in midweek with a Copa del Rey victory, which might inject some much-needed confidence.

The odds for a draw stand at 3.06, reflecting the likelihood of a tightly contested match. However, given Mallorca’s poor defensive shape and desperation to escape the relegation zone, Bilbao’s attacking quality should make the difference. A low-scoring affair seems probable, but Bilbao’s superior squad depth and motivation tilt the scales in their favor.

Backing Athletic Bilbao at 2.26 offers solid value, especially considering their dominance in this fixture and Mallorca’s mounting injury woes.