Betting tips from AI for Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius, 19 October 2025.

This women’s flyweight matchup pits an elite contender in Manon Fiorot against the gritty, surging Jasmine Jasudavicius. Books have set a clear hierarchy: Fiorot at 1.43, Jasudavicius at 2.95, and a draw at 41.00. The question for bettors isn’t just “who wins?” but “is the price beatable?”

Fiorot’s game is built on footwork, distance control, and a surgical, karate-influenced striking arsenal. She consistently wins minutes with clean entries-exits, feints, and side kicks that disrupt rhythm. Crucially, she has proved that quality against top opposition—think dominant, composed decision wins over former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian and a measured victory over Rose Namajunas. Most telling for this matchup, she stymied a strong wrestler/grappler in Erin Blanchfield by maintaining balance, angle changes, and hand-fighting on entries. That template directly addresses Jasudavicius’s path.

Jasudavicius is tough, persistent, and well-coached. She thrives on pressure, cage clinches, mat returns, and grinding pace, and she’s made real strides in her boxing fundamentals—enough to upset ranked talent when her pressure sticks. She’s durable, intelligent about round-winning optics, and can bank control time. If this becomes a phone-booth fight, she has the tools to make rounds uncomfortable and close.

But turning Fiorot into a stationary target is the hard part. Fiorot’s lateral movement and stance switches force reset after reset, and her takedown defense—both technique and spatial awareness—holds up under layered attempts. Even when opponents gain clinches, Fiorot is adept at pummeling for underhooks, framing, and circling back into open space. On the feet, she should have meaningful edges in speed, accuracy, and clean impact, which judges increasingly prioritize over soft control.

Let’s price it. The break-even for 1.43 is roughly 70.0%. I cap Fiorot closer to 74–76% given her proven minute-winning tools versus wrestle-pressure archetypes. At a conservative 75% fair line, expected value on a $1 play is positive: 0.75 × 0.429 − 0.25 ≈ +0.072, about a 7% ROI. For Jasudavicius at 2.95, the break-even is ~34%; I can’t credibly get her win probability that high without assuming repeated clean entries to dominant positions—an ask against Fiorot’s footwork. The draw at 41.00 breaks even near 2.4%, which is more generous than typical UFC draw rates; it’s a pass.

Method-of-victory leans Fiorot by decision—she tends to control fights without reckless risk—and Jasudavicius is durable enough to extend her. While decision props often carry better payouts, the moneyline at 1.43 is the sharper, lower-variance angle when our priority is steady bankroll growth on a $1-per-bet approach.

Risk notes: If Jasudavicius consistently traps Fiorot against the fence early, stacks clinch control with mat returns, and draws even optics in striking exchanges, rounds can get tight. Accidental clashes, cuts, or a late scramble could also muddy a scorecard. Still, over three rounds, the cleaner, more reliable minute-winner profile points to Fiorot.

The bet: Manon Fiorot moneyline at 1.43. The style matchup, historical performance against wrestlers, and damage-centric striking favor her to win a clear decision more often than the price implies.

This flyweight bout presents a fascinating and classic clash of styles between an elite striker and a relentless grappler. Manon Fiorot, aptly nicknamed 'The Beast', has carved a path of destruction through the 125-pound division with her technical and powerful karate-based striking. Her ability to manage distance with crisp footwork, combined with a high-volume output of kicks and punches, makes her a nightmare for anyone who wants to stand and trade.

Fiorot's recent resume speaks volumes about her championship potential. She's coming off a dominant decision victory over Erin Blanchfield, a fighter widely considered the most dangerous submission artist in the division. In that fight, Fiorot showcased masterful takedown defense, neutralizing Blanchfield's primary weapon and proving she can handle elite-level grappling pressure. This performance is the key data point for analyzing this matchup, as Jasmine Jasudavicius brings a similar, albeit less polished, grappling-heavy game plan.

Jasmine Jasudavicius is all about grit, pressure, and wrestling. Her path to victory is clear: close the distance, force the fight into the clinch against the cage, and grind Fiorot down to the mat. She has the cardio and toughness to push a grueling pace for all three rounds. However, executing this strategy against Fiorot is a monumental task. Jasudavicius is not as slick with her takedown entries as Blanchfield, and Fiorot has a significant size and strength advantage that will make her difficult to bully in the clinch.

On the feet, the disparity is stark. Fiorot is the far more technical and dangerous striker. She will likely use her teep kicks and long-range punches to keep Jasudavicius at the end of her range, punishing her every time she attempts to enter. While Jasudavicius has a puncher's chance, her most probable outcome is getting picked apart from the outside. The odds reflect this dynamic, with Fiorot as the significant favorite at 1.43 and Jasudavicius as the clear underdog at 2.95. Ultimately, Fiorot has already passed a tougher grappling test than the one Jasudavicius presents. Expect her to stuff the takedowns and cruise to a comfortable decision victory by out-striking her opponent.

This women's flyweight matchup presents a compelling betting opportunity with Manon Fiorot entering as a heavy favorite at 1.43 against Jasmine Jasudavicius at 2.95. The French striker has established herself as one of the division's most dangerous contenders, riding an impressive winning streak that showcases her evolution as a complete mixed martial artist.

Fiorot's striking credentials are undeniable, with her Muay Thai background translating beautifully to MMA. Her ability to control distance, land clean combinations, and maintain pressure throughout three rounds has been consistently impressive. What makes her particularly dangerous is her improved takedown defense and ground game, areas that were once considered potential weaknesses. Her cardio appears elite level, often finishing fights stronger than she starts them.

Jasudavicius brings her own strengths to this contest, particularly her grappling pedigree and submission threat. The Canadian fighter has shown solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, making her dangerous if she can get the fight to the ground. However, her striking has looked tentative against higher-level competition, and she's struggled to implement her ground game against fighters with strong takedown defense.

The key matchup factor lies in Fiorot's ability to stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. If she can neutralize Jasudavicius's wrestling early, her superior striking should take over. Fiorot's leg kicks and boxing combinations have been particularly effective, and she's shown excellent fight IQ in recent performances.

While the 1.43 odds don't offer massive value, Fiorot's stylistic advantages and current form make this a solid investment. Her path to victory is clearer and more reliable than her opponent's need to secure takedowns against an improving defensive wrestler. The French contender should control the striking exchanges and potentially find a finish in the later rounds as Jasudavicius fades under pressure.

When it comes to women's flyweight action in the UFC, few matchups generate as much buzz as Manon Fiorot versus Jasmine Jasudavicius. Scheduled for October 19, 2025, at 00:15 UTC, this bout pits the French striking sensation against the gritty Canadian grappler. Fiorot, with her impressive 11-1 record, has been on a tear, showcasing elite Muay Thai skills and knockout power that have dismantled opponents like Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. Her ability to maintain distance and pick apart foes with precise counters makes her a nightmare for anyone stepping into the Octagon.

On the other side, Jasudavicius brings a 10-3 record and a wrestling-heavy approach that's earned her wins over tough competition like Priscila Cachoeira. She's durable, with solid ground control and submission threats, but her striking has shown vulnerabilities, especially against technically superior opponents. In past fights, Jasmine has struggled when unable to impose her grappling early, often getting outstruck on the feet.

Diving into the odds, Fiorot is listed as the heavy favorite at 1.43, implying about a 70% chance of victory. This makes sense given her ranking as a top contender, potentially one win away from a title shot. Jasudavicius, at 2.95, offers underdog value, but the 41.00 on a draw highlights how rare stalemates are in MMA, especially in this division where decisions often go to the more active fighter.

From a betting perspective, I'm leaning heavily on Fiorot to win. Her striking volume—averaging over 5 significant strikes per minute—should overwhelm Jasudavicius, who absorbs nearly 4 strikes per minute in losses. Fiorot's takedown defense stands at an impressive 85%, neutralizing Jasmine's primary weapon. If the fight stays standing, which it likely will, Manon's speed and power could lead to a finish, perhaps in the later rounds as Jasudavicius tires.

That said, upsets happen, and Jasudavicius has shown heart, pulling off wins as an underdog before. But statistically, Fiorot's win streak and superior metrics make her the smart play. For bettors, a $1 wager on Fiorot at 1.43 would return about $1.43 total, a modest but reliable profit. If you're feeling risky, parlaying this with other favorites could amplify returns, but standalone, it's a high-confidence pick.

In terms of fight IQ, expect Fiorot to use her footwork to circle away from takedowns, landing combinations that wear down Jasudavicius. Jasmine might find success in clinches, but Fiorot's experience against grapplers like Jennifer Maia suggests she'll stuff attempts and counter effectively. This bout could end via TKO for Fiorot, boosting her case for a championship opportunity.

Overall, this is a clash of styles where striking prowess trumps grappling reliability. For sports betting enthusiasts, Fiorot represents the value in favorites—consistent and backed by data. Keep an eye on weigh-ins and any last-minute news, but as it stands, she's my predicted winner in what should be an entertaining scrap.

In this highly anticipated MMA bout set for October 19, 2025, Manon Fiorot and Jasmine Jasudavicius are poised for a compelling showdown in the women's flyweight division. Fiorot enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.43, reflecting her dominant status and impressive track record in the UFC. Her sharp striking, combined with improved defensive grappling, makes her a versatile and dangerous opponent who can dictate the fight's tempo and capitalize on openings for a finish.

Jasmine Jasudavicius, with odds of 2.95, brings resilience and a solid ground game to the octagon. She has demonstrated the ability to weather storms and secure submissions against tough competitors, but her striking defense may be a liability against Fiorot's precision and power. While an upset is always possible in MMA, Jasudavicius's path to victory appears narrow given the skill gap and Fiorot's consistency in high-pressure situations.

The bookmaker odds imply a roughly 70% probability of Fiorot winning, which aligns with her higher ranking and recent performances against top-tier fighters. For betting enthusiasts, this matchup highlights the balance between risk and reward; Fiorot's lower odds offer a safer, albeit smaller, return, while Jasudavicius's higher payout comes with significant uncertainty. In the long run, betting on favorites like Fiorot can yield steady profits by minimizing losses from unexpected upsets.

Considering Fiorot's technical advantages, including her ability to control distance and land significant strikes, she is the clear choice for victory. Her experience in deep waters and proven record against similar opponents suggest she will likely win by decision or TKO, making a bet on her at 1.43 a strategic move for those focused on profitability in sports betting.

Manon Fiorot enters this matchup as a significant betting favorite with odds of 1.43, and for good reason. The French fighter has demonstrated a well-rounded skill set that spans striking, grappling, and defensive prowess. Her professional MMA record reflects not only her ability to finish fights but also her adaptability in the cage. Fiorot’s previous performances have showcased a high fight IQ, allowing her to dictate pace and control distance against opponents. She thrives under pressure and has consistently demonstrated composure even when pushed into tough spots. This makes her a formidable opponent for anyone in her weight class, including Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Jasmine Jasudavicius, on the other hand, comes into the bout as a substantial underdog with odds of 2.95. While she is certainly capable of pulling off an upset, her fighting style may struggle to counter Fiorot’s strengths. Jasudavicius tends to rely more heavily on opportunistic striking and submission attempts, which could leave her vulnerable against an opponent like Fiorot who excels at neutralizing such threats. That said, her confidence and determination cannot be overlooked. Underdogs often rise to the occasion in MMA, where a single mistake can change the outcome of a fight. However, given her limited experience compared to Fiorot, it’s unclear whether she has the tools to overcome such a skilled adversary.
When analyzing the odds further, it’s evident that the bookmakers see this as Fiorot’s fight to lose. Odds of 1.43 imply a probability of roughly 70% for Fiorot to win outright, while Jasudavicius’s odds of 2.95 suggest a lower likelihood of victory. The draw option, listed at 41.00, is understandably long since draws are exceedingly rare in MMA. Bettors must weigh whether the potential payout justifies the risk, especially when considering how lopsided the matchup appears on paper.