Betting tips from AI for Marek Bujło vs Denzel Freeman, 22 November 2025.

This matchup sets a classic striker-athlete versus submission ace narrative on a big stage. Denzel Freeman arrives with momentum as the reigning LFA heavyweight champion and the consensus lean from analysts, while Marek Bujło brings genuine Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree and a well-defined submission route. The pricing reflects that split: Freeman is the favorite at 1.50, Bujło sits as the underdog at 2.73, and the draw is a long shot at 50.00.

From a stylistic lens, Freeman’s athleticism, speed, and linear tools at range are real advantages in early exchanges. If he keeps the fight standing and denies level changes against the fence, the favorite likely banks minutes, builds damage, and takes a clear decision or late stoppage. But Bujło’s threat is narrow and sharp: one clean entry, a sticky clinch, a trip or body lock to mat, and the fight can swing fast. Heavyweights magnify that swing with fatigue and small defensive lapses, especially under bright lights and travel demands. This card in Qatar adds debut pressure and environmental variables that often increase variance rather than reduce it.

The question for bettors is price, not reputation. The line of 1.50 implies roughly 66.8 percent for Freeman, which feels a shade rich given debut volatility, the stylistic binary, and Bujło’s proven submission path. Even if you rate Freeman the better overall athlete and minute-winner, a more tempered projection in the 60–63 percent band is reasonable. Conversely, 2.73 asks only about 36.6 percent for Bujło to break even. With his A-game being a high-leverage skill that can decide the fight in one sequence, it is not hard to justify a 38–42 percent window, which turns the underdog into a positive expected value play. The draw at 50.00 carries a break-even near 2 percent and is still tough to support in modern MMA scoring.

On a $1 stake, the EV picture clarifies the edge. At 1.50, a 62 percent favorite returns about $0.31 in profit expectation while risking the full dollar, which is negative EV. At 2.73, a 40 percent estimate yields around +9 percent expected return, thanks to the outsized payoff of a successful takedown-to-control or submission sequence. That is the bet I want in a volatile heavyweight prelim with both men navigating new circumstances and heightened pressure.

Recommendation: Take Bujło moneyline at 2.73 for the value side, acknowledging Freeman as the more likely minute-winner but overpriced. The path to cashing is clear: early grappling success or a momentum shift off a clinch, with submission or dominant control as the win condition.

This heavyweight showdown pits the raw athleticism and championship momentum of Denzel Freeman against the specialized grappling prowess of Marek Bujło. Freeman, the reigning LFA Heavyweight champion, is making his highly anticipated UFC debut and carries the weight of significant expectations. The odds reflect this, positioning him as the clear favorite at 1.50. He enters the octagon on a strong run, and expert analysts from outlets like Combat Press are unanimously picking him to win, citing his superior athleticism and recent dominant form as key factors.

On the other side, Marek Bujło is a legitimate threat on the ground. As a Polish BJJ champion, his path to victory is clear: get the fight to the mat and hunt for a submission. However, a massive red flag hangs over his preparation. Bujło is stepping in on late notice after his original opponent withdrew. This is a critical disadvantage in modern MMA, as his entire training camp was likely geared towards a completely different style of fighter. Adapting to a powerhouse like Freeman with limited time is an immense challenge that cannot be overstated. While his grappling pedigree makes the underdog odds of 2.73 tempting, the question remains whether he can even implement his game plan.

Freeman's athleticism is the great equalizer here. It should translate into strong takedown defense, allowing him to keep the fight standing where he can leverage his power and striking advantage. While a UFC debut in a foreign country like Qatar brings its own set of pressures, Freeman's experience in LFA title fights suggests he can handle the spotlight. Given the disrupted preparation for Bujło and the clear momentum and physical tools favoring Freeman, the American is the more reliable pick. He has the tools to neutralize Bujło's primary weapon and dictate the terms of the engagement, likely leading to a finish or a comfortable decision victory.

This heavyweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters entering pivotal moments in their careers. Denzel Freeman comes in as the established favorite at 1.50, bringing the momentum of his LFA heavyweight championship reign and the hunger of a UFC debutant looking to make an immediate statement. His athleticism and recent form have caught the attention of analysts, with multiple experts backing his ability to handle the step up in competition.

Marek Bujło enters as the underdog at 2.73, but his Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials cannot be overlooked in the heavyweight division where one takedown can change everything. However, the late opponent change raises legitimate concerns about his preparation and game planning. Fighting Freeman instead of his originally scheduled opponent means less time to study specific tendencies and develop targeted strategies.

The unique Qatar venue adds an intriguing wildcard element. The electric atmosphere and unfamiliar environment could favor the fighter who adapts better to pressure and new surroundings. Freeman's championship experience suggests he may handle this spotlight more comfortably than Bujło, who hasn't faced this level of scrutiny before.

Freeman's path to victory likely involves using his athleticism to maintain distance, stuff takedown attempts, and impose his striking game. His recent run demonstrates the kind of consistency that translates well to UFC competition. While Bujło's submission threat keeps this fight dangerous throughout, Freeman's well-rounded skill set and superior preparation time give him multiple ways to win.

The betting market has this right. Freeman's combination of momentum, proper preparation, and championship experience should prove decisive in what could be a statement-making UFC debut performance.

The upcoming heavyweight clash between Marek Bujło and Denzel Freeman at UFC Fight Night in Qatar is shaping up to be a fascinating debut for Freeman in the big leagues. As the reigning LFA Heavyweight champion, Freeman enters with a wave of momentum from his recent victories, showcasing explosive athleticism that has MMA insiders buzzing. His odds at 1.50 reflect this favoritism, positioning him as the clear betting choice against the Polish grappler.

Bujło, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, brings a dangerous submission game to the octagon, which could spell trouble if the fight hits the mat. However, the late opponent switch might disrupt his preparation, and facing a well-rounded athlete like Freeman in a high-pressure environment adds layers of uncertainty. Analysts from Combat Press, including Rob Tatum and Dan Kuhl, are leaning heavily towards Freeman, citing his form and adaptability as key edges in this matchup.

The Qatar venue introduces an electric atmosphere with a passionate new fanbase, potentially amplifying the intensity for both fighters. No injuries reported means we're likely seeing them at peak condition, but Freeman's championship pedigree in LFA suggests he's more battle-tested for the UFC spotlight. Betting on Freeman at 1.50 offers solid value for those expecting a dominant performance, possibly via knockout or decision.

For underdog enthusiasts, Bujło at 2.73 could provide a juicy payout if he capitalizes on his grappling to pull off an upset. Yet, community polls and expert consensus tilt the scales towards Freeman, making him the smarter pick for profitability in this prelim bout. Keep an eye on how the unique climate affects stamina – it could be the X-factor in a fight where athleticism meets technique.

The UFC's debut in Qatar sets the stage for a compelling heavyweight prelim between Denzel Freeman and Marek Bujło, with both fighters facing the dual pressures of a historic venue and career-defining moments. Freeman, the reigning LFA champion, enters his UFC debut on a wave of momentum, backed by analyst predictions from Combat Press's Rob Tatum and Dan Kuhl, who emphasize his athleticism and recent form as decisive edges. His striking power and ability to control distance could effectively neutralize Bujło's grappling threats, making him a logical favorite in this matchup.

Marek Bujło, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, presents a clear path to an upset with his submission skills, particularly if he can drag the fight to the mat. The late opponent change might have disrupted his preparation, but his grappling-centric style is adaptable, and in the heavyweight division, one takedown could end the fight instantly. However, Freeman's consistency and high-pressure experience give him a robustness that Bujło may struggle to overcome, especially in a debut scenario where nerves can play a role.

The odds reflect this dynamic, with Freeman at 1.50 implying a high probability of victory, while Bujło's 2.73 offers enticing risk-reward for bettors banking on a submission. The draw at 50.00 is rightly priced as a longshot, given the rarity in MMA. Considering the analyst consensus, Freeman's champion pedigree, and the added motivation of a UFC debut, betting on him at 1.50 represents a solid value for those seeking a profitable, lower-risk wager.

External factors, such as Qatar's unique atmosphere, could introduce variability, but Freeman's athleticism and form suggest he's better equipped to handle such unknowns. Community polls and pre-fight discussions lean slightly toward Freeman, yet Bujło's underdog potential keeps the betting landscape interesting. Ultimately, Freeman's advantages in speed, power, and situational readiness make him the more reliable pick for a profitable outcome in this high-stakes bout.

This matchup between Marek Bujło and Denzel Freeman is shaping up to be a fascinating clash of styles, with both fighters bringing unique strengths into the octagon. Freeman enters as the favorite with odds of 1.50, reflecting his status as the reigning LFA Heavyweight champion and the momentum from his recent performances. His athleticism and striking prowess have been highlighted by analysts like Rob Tatum and Dan Kuhl, who see him as the more likely victor. However, betting markets often undervalue grappling specialists like Bujło, whose Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree could pose significant challenges for Freeman.
Bujło’s submission threat cannot be overstated. With odds of 2.73, he represents an intriguing underdog bet, especially given the unpredictability of heavyweight fights. While Freeman’s athleticism is undeniable, heavyweights are notoriously prone to upsets due to the single-strike knockout potential or a well-timed submission. Bujło’s grappling expertise might allow him to neutralize Freeman’s striking advantages and control the fight on the ground. The late opponent change adds an element of uncertainty, but it could also work in Bujło’s favor if he has prepared diligently for this stylistic matchup."The event’s location in Qatar introduces another layer of complexity. The unique climate and passionate local fanbase could influence fighter performance, particularly for Freeman, who is making his UFC debut. Debutants often experience heightened nerves, and the electric atmosphere might amplify those pressures. Bujło, on the other hand, may benefit from the relatively lower expectations placed upon him. His experience in high-stakes grappling competitions could help him stay composed under pressure."The odds suggest that Freeman is a strong favorite, but the betting market appears to slightly underestimate Bujło’s chances. At 2.73, Bujło offers significant value, particularly because his grappling skills provide a clear path to victory against a striker like Freeman. In contrast, Freeman’s odds of 1.50 imply a near-certainty of success, which feels overly optimistic given the inherent volatility of heavyweight matchups. A win for Bujło would yield a substantial return on investment, making him the smarter bet in this scenario.