Betting tips from AI for Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud, 19 January 2026.

Casper Ruud arrives in Melbourne as the clear favorite—bookmakers list him at 1.21 and prediction models back him around 72%. He’s carrying momentum from wins over Aleksandar Vukic and Matteo Berrettini, so the market’s confidence makes sense.

That said, the 1.21 line implies a higher chance than algorithms suggest, and traders piling into Ruud at 82¢ reflect crowd behavior rather than pure value. Mattia Bellucci has flaws versus top‑15 opponents (0‑4) but showed life beating Reilly Opelka recently.

At 4.90, Bellucci represents positive expected value if Ruud’s true win probability is closer to the 72% algorithms report. For a $1 bet I’ll back the longshot—value over favorite.

Casper Ruud enters this Australian Open clash as the undeniable favorite, with betting markets assigning him a staggering 74% win probability at 1.21. Prediction algorithms echo this sentiment, giving him a 72% chance. Ruud's top-tier form, recent victories over Vukic and Berrettini, and career-high ranking inside the top 2 all paint a picture of dominance. Traders are heavily backing him, anticipating a straight-sets thrashing against Mattia Bellucci.

However, a closer look reveals a potential value play. While Bellucci indeed struggles against elite foes, holding a 0-4 record against top-15 players, his odds of 4.90 offer significant upside. If Ruud's true win probability is, as reported, around 74%, then Bellucci's implied probability stands at 26%. The bookmaker's odds of 4.90 suggest a lower implied probability of just 20.41%. This discrepancy indicates that Bellucci is undervalued by the market. Despite the long odds, betting on Bellucci presents a positive expected value, making it the mathematically profitable choice for a $1 wager seeking maximum return on investment. It's a high-risk, high-reward scenario where the payout justifies the calculated gamble against the heavy favorite.

This first-round Australian Open matchup presents a classic favorite-underdog scenario. Casper Ruud enters as the overwhelming choice at 1.21, reflecting his elite status just inside the world's top 2. The Norwegian's recent form speaks volumes, with quality victories over Vukic and Berrettini demonstrating his readiness for Melbourne.

Bellucci, despite his recent win over Opelka, faces an uphill battle at 4.90. His 0-4 record against top-15 players is particularly concerning when facing someone of Ruud's caliber. The betting markets have this pegged correctly, with algorithms giving Ruud a 72% win probability.

The absence of previous head-to-head meetings creates some uncertainty, but Ruud's superior ranking, recent form, and hard court prowess should prove decisive. Trading platforms showing 82¢ on Ruud contracts versus just 20¢ for Bellucci further confirms the expected outcome – a comfortable win for the Norwegian, likely in straight sets.

In the sweltering heat of Melbourne's Australian Open, Casper Ruud enters as the undisputed favorite against qualifier Mattia Bellucci in this first-round showdown. Ruud, riding high on his career-best form and a ranking snugly inside the top 2, has been dismantling opponents with precision—think his recent triumphs over Aleksandar Vukic and Matteo Berrettini. The Norwegian's game, built on rock-solid baseline rallies and mental toughness, is tailor-made for the hard courts here.

Bellucci, meanwhile, has shown grit with a gritty win over Reilly Opelka, but his ledger against elite players tells a grim tale: 0-4 against top-15 foes. With no head-to-head history to lean on, this mismatch screams straight-sets for Ruud. Betting markets agree, slapping Ruud at 1.21 (implied 82% win probability) while Bellucci languishes at 4.90 as the ultimate longshot.

Prediction algorithms echo the buzz, pegging Ruud at 72-74% to advance. For bettors eyeing value, the juice is on Ruud—lay the points and watch him cruise to victory. This isn't just a win; it's a statement from a top seed hungry for Grand Slam glory.

Casper Ruud storms into this Australian Open first-round match as the heavy favorite, with bookmakers listing him at 1.21 and algorithms projecting a 72% win probability. His career-high ranking inside the top 2 and recent victories over Aleksandar Vukic and Matteo Berrettini underline his elite form.

Mattia Bellucci, priced at 4.90, faces a steep challenge given his 0-4 record against top-15 foes like Ruud. Traders are piling into Ruud contracts at 82¢, expecting a straightforward win as Bellucci's underdog status hints at a tough outing in Melbourne.

With Ruud's momentum and Bellucci's struggles against top-tier competition, the value clearly lies with the Norwegian to advance comfortably.

Casper Ruud enters this Australian Open clash as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. His recent form has been stellar, with key wins over dangerous opponents like Aleksandar Vukic and Matteo Berrettini. The betting markets reflect his dominance, assigning him a 1.21 price tag, while Mattia Bellucci sits at a distant 4.90. Prediction models echo this sentiment, giving Ruud a 72% chance of advancing, aligning closely with the implied probability from bookmakers.

Bellucci’s recent victory over Reilly Opelka shows he can compete against solid players, but his 0-4 record against top-15 opponents is a glaring red flag. Melbourne’s hard courts favor Ruud’s consistent baseline game and fitness, which could wear down Bellucci in straight sets. Traders on platforms like Robinhood are heavily backing Ruud at 82¢, signaling confidence in his ability to control the match from start to finish.

While Bellucci might steal a few games with his aggressive style, Ruud’s elite pedigree and experience against high-caliber players make him nearly unassailable here. Backing Ruud at 1.21 may not offer massive returns, but it’s a safe, calculated play given his dominance and Bellucci’s struggles at this level.