Betting tips from AI for Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs, 07 January 2026.

San Antonio arrive at 25-10 and scoring 119.7 PPG, while Memphis is 15-19 and has lost four of five. The Grizzlies are severely shorthanded without Ja Morant, Zach Edey, John Konchar, Vince Williams Jr. and Brandon Clarke, yet oddsmakers peg the game with San Antonio favored at 1.47 and Memphis priced at 2.70.
Analysts still give the Spurs only a 55–61% win probability and project a tight 119–117 game; that implies Memphis' true upset chance (roughly 39–45%) is above the market-implied ~37% for 2.70. Wembanyama being questionable and the FedEx Forum crowd keep an upset plausible.
For a $1 wager seeking positive expected value, backing the Memphis Grizzlies at 2.70 is the smart contrarian play: the market overprices San Antonio at 1.47, creating value on the road-weakened Grizzlies.

The San Antonio Spurs roll into Memphis with commanding 1.47 odds and a stellar 25-10 record, sitting comfortably second in the West. Their scorching 119.7 points per game offense has been a nightmare for opponents, and they've already swept the Grizzlies in their prior two meetings this season. While Victor Wembanyama is questionable and Devin Vassell is out, the news suggests this "barely dents their momentum."

Conversely, the Memphis Grizzlies are in disarray. Their 2.70 odds reflect a team decimated by injuries, missing key players like Ja Morant, Zach Edey, John Konchar, Vince Williams Jr., and Brandon Clarke. Limping in at 15-19 and having dropped four of their last five, their lineup is severely compromised.

Despite the potential for a "rowdy Memphis crowd" to spark an upset, the reality of the Grizzlies' decimated roster against a high-flying Spurs team is stark. Analysts project a 55-61% win probability for San Antonio, even predicting a tight 119-117 shootout. Given the overwhelming injury report for Memphis and San Antonio's consistent performance, the smart money is clearly on the road team to extend their dominance.

The Spurs at 1.47 represent the clear value play despite the juice. Memphis is in dire straits without Ja Morant, Zach Edey, and three other key rotation players, leaving their roster severely depleted. This injury crisis explains their recent slide, dropping four of five games.

San Antonio, meanwhile, continues to excel at 25-10 and ranks second in the Western Conference. Their offensive firepower (119.7 PPG) should overwhelm Memphis's patchwork defense. Even with Wembanyama questionable and Vassell sidelined, the Spurs have demonstrated their depth throughout the season.

The head-to-head history further solidifies this prediction – San Antonio has already swept both previous matchups this season. While FedEx Forum provides a home-court advantage, it's insufficient to overcome the talent disparity. The projected 119-117 score seems generous to Memphis given their depleted roster.

At these odds, the Spurs are the prudent bet despite the chalk price.

The San Antonio Spurs are storming into Memphis on a hot streak, boasting a 25-10 record and the second spot in the West, while the Grizzlies stagger at 15-19 after dropping four of their last five. San Antonio's offense is firing on all cylinders at 119.7 points per game, and they've already swept both meetings this season against a depleted Memphis squad.

Memphis is in dire straits without Ja Morant and Zach Edey, compounded by injuries to John Konchar, Vince Williams Jr., and Brandon Clarke—leaving their lineup looking like a ghost town. The Spurs aren't unscathed, with Victor Wembanyama questionable and Devin Vassell out, but their depth and momentum barely flinch after splitting their last five.

Analysts peg the Spurs with a 55-61% win probability in a projected 119-117 nail-biter, and the oddsmakers agree, listing San Antonio as -213 favorites to the Grizzlies' +170 underdogs. FedEx Forum's crowd might roar, but this revenge spot favors the Spurs extending their head-to-head dominance. Bet on San Antonio to cover and cash in— their firepower overwhelms the banged-up hosts.

The San Antonio Spurs storm into Memphis with a commanding 25-10 record and a red-hot offense averaging 119.7 points, but Victor Wembanyama's questionable status and Devin Vassell's absence introduce uncertainty. The banged-up Grizzlies, missing Ja Morant and four other key players, are reeling after four losses in five games, yet FedEx Forum's rowdy crowd could ignite an upset.

Bookmakers heavily favor the Spurs at 1.47, implying a 68% win probability, but analysts project a tighter 55-61% edge. This creates value on the underdog Grizzlies at 2.70, especially with San Antonio's prior sweep coming by narrow margins in projected shootouts.

Memphis's home-court spark and San Antonio's injury concerns align with the 119-117 forecast, making the Grizzlies a live dog for a profitable bet in this revenge spot.

The San Antonio Spurs enter this matchup as the clear favorites, with odds of 1.47 reflecting their dominance this season. Memphis, on the other hand, sits at a tempting 2.70, but the Grizzlies' decimated roster makes it hard to justify backing them. Without Ja Morant and key role players like Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke, Memphis lacks the firepower to keep up in what projects to be a high-scoring affair. The Spurs, despite missing Devin Vassell and with Victor Wembanyama questionable, still boast superior depth and scoring efficiency, averaging 119.7 points per game.

San Antonio’s 55-61% win probability aligns with their current form and head-to-head dominance over Memphis. They’ve swept both prior meetings this season, and their ability to close out tight games will be crucial here. Analysts project a narrow 119-117 final score, but even in a shootout, the Spurs’ experience and cohesion should prevail. While the FedEx Forum crowd could provide some energy for the underdog Grizzlies, it’s unlikely to offset their glaring personnel gaps.

From a betting perspective, risking $1 on San Antonio at 1.47 feels safer than chasing an upset with Memphis at 2.70. The Spurs are built to handle adversity, and their consistent performance against Memphis reinforces their edge.