Betting tips from AI for Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan, 07 December 2025.

I back Merab Dvalishvili to retain his bantamweight title. The narrative and the tape both favor the champion: relentless pace, monstrous takedown volume and five-round cardio are repeatedly highlighted by analysts like Daniel Cormier and pundits such as TJ Grant, and that style neutralizes Petr Yan’s striking. The market prices Dvalishvili at 1.26, a short price but one that matches a fighter who thrives in championship distance and hostile crowds.

Yan is dangerous—he’s motivated and owns a striking edge and revenge narrative, reflected in his 4.14 underdog number—but he needs a finish or a perfect distance game to overcome the grind. For a $1 wager seeking positive expected value, the smart play is the champ: Merab wears opponents down and should eke out another decision or late finish.

Merab Dvalishvili enters this rematch as a heavy favorite with 1.26 odds, and for good reason. He's chasing history, aiming to be the first fighter to defend a UFC belt four times in a single year, a monumental task that speaks to his relentless drive and conditioning. Daniel Cormier's assessment that Dvalishvili's "relentless pace and takedown volume make him nearly impossible to beat over five rounds" resonates, especially against a fighter like Yan who struggled to cope with it in their first encounter. While Yan dismisses Dvalishvili's achievements as "not impressive," that simply fuels the champion's fire. TJ Grant's warning is crucial: Yan's striking prowess means little if he can't stop the suffocating pressure. This fight is in front of a rabid, pro-Dvalishvili crowd, which will only amplify the champion's already formidable engine. Expect Dvalishvili to grind Yan down over five rounds, securing another dominant victory.

Merab Dvalishvili enters this rematch as the clear favorite at 1.26 for good reason. His first victory over Yan wasn't a fluke, and his championship run since then has been nothing short of dominant. Dvalishvili's relentless pace and overwhelming takedown volume, as highlighted by Daniel Cormier, make him nearly impossible to defeat in a five-round affair.

Petr Yan at 4.14 offers intriguing value, but he faces the same problems that cost him their first meeting. While Yan possesses superior striking, TJ Grant's assessment rings true - those skills become neutralized against Dvalishvili's suffocating pressure and grappling dominance.

The champion's historic quest to defend four times in 2025 provides extra motivation, while the pro-Dvalishvili crowd at T-Mobile Arena will further energize his relentless style. Yan's dismissive comments about the champion's achievements suggest he might be underestimating Dvalishvili's improvements since their first clash.

In this bantamweight title rematch at UFC 323, Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Petr Yan, and the champ's path to victory looks clear as day. Dvalishvili's relentless pace and takedown volume, as UFC analyst Daniel Cormier highlights, make him a nightmare over five rounds—calling him the most complete bantamweight alive. Yan's striking edge is real, but former champ TJ Grant nails it: that power means little against Dvalishvili's suffocating pressure and grappling engine.

Their first clash saw Yan fall to the grind, and with no injuries reported and Dvalishvili chasing history as the first to defend four times in a year, the momentum is all his. The T-Mobile Arena crowd, fueled by Georgian passion, will roar for the champion, tilting the energy in his favor. Yan talks a big game, downplaying the stakes, but this rematch screams repeat performance.

At 1.26 for Dvalishvili and 4.14 for Yan, the odds reflect the mismatch. For a $1 bet, I'm on the champ—his cardio and wrestling will wear Yan down for another win.

Merab Dvalishvili enters this UFC 323 main event rematch as the heavy favorite, with odds at 1.26, seeking a historic fourth title defense in 2025. Analysts like Daniel Cormier highlight his relentless pace and takedown volume as nearly unbeatable over five rounds.
Petr Yan, at 4.14, boasts striking prowess and confidence from their first bout, but former champ TJ Grant warns that Yan must stop Dvalishvili's suffocating pressure to avoid a grinding loss.
With no injuries reported and a rabid pro-champion crowd, Dvalishvili's grappling engine should control the fight, making him the clear pick to retain his belt.

This rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan has all the ingredients of a classic MMA showdown, but the smart money leans toward the champion. Dvalishvili enters as a heavy favorite with odds of 1.26, reflecting his dominance in the division and relentless fighting style. His ability to control fights with constant pressure and high-volume grappling was key in their first encounter, and UFC analyst Daniel Cormier’s comments reinforce this edge. Yan, while a dangerous striker with odds of 4.14, must find answers to Dvalishvili's suffocating pace—a task he failed at previously.

The setting at T-Mobile Arena adds another layer of difficulty for Yan. Dvalishvili’s passionate Georgian fanbase will create an electric atmosphere that could further fuel his performance. TJ Grant’s prediction of a “grind-it-out war” seems spot-on, favoring Dvalishvili’s cardio and adaptability over five rounds. Yan’s confidence is admirable, yet his striking advantage may not be enough against an opponent who thrives in close quarters.

With no reported injuries or weight issues, both fighters are at full strength. However, Dvalishvili’s proven formula for success—combined with his historic pursuit of four title defenses in one year—makes him the safer bet despite the steep odds.