Betting tips from AI for Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers, 28 December 2025.

DRatings leans Miami by about six (projected 120-114), and the market agrees — Miami is favored at 1.30 while Indiana sits at 3.65. The Heat get the home edge and a 62% crowd lean at Kaseya Center, which matters in a tight matchup.
Injuries tilt this toward Miami: Tyler Herro is out, Bam Adebayo questionable, but Wiggins and Jovic are probable. Indiana is shorthanded without Isaiah Jackson and Ben Sheppard and has dropped five straight blowouts. Given roster gaps, home court and the DRatings margin, back Miami to grind out the win.

The Miami Heat, despite a recent slump marked by four losses in their last five, are in an excellent position to secure a bounce-back victory against the struggling Indiana Pacers. While key injuries to Tyler Herro and a questionable Bam Adebayo are concerns, the Heat's potent home advantage at Kaseya Center is expected to be decisive against the Pacers' notably porous defense. DRatings experts project a Heat win by roughly six points, emphasizing Miami's home-court dominance. The Pacers arrive in dire form, having suffered five consecutive blowout losses, underscoring their dismal 6-24 season record. Although Indiana recently surprised with a 128-115 upset, their current extended losing streak and the Heat's motivation to reverse their fortunes make a repeat highly unlikely. With the betting crowds heavily favoring Miami at 1.30 odds, the smart play is on the Heat to capitalize on this matchup and deliver a much-needed home win.

The Miami Heat are poised to reclaim their groove at Kaseya Center against a floundering Indiana Pacers squad that's hit rock bottom with a 6-24 record and five straight blowout defeats. Despite Miami's own 15-15 mark and recent skid—including back-to-back losses to Toronto—the home edge and superior talent should propel them to victory. DRatings projects a 120-114 Heat win, capitalizing on Indiana's leaky defense that has been torched lately.

Key injuries sting both sides: Miami's sharpshooter Tyler Herro is sidelined, Bam Adebayo is questionable, but Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic are probable. For the Pacers, Isaiah Jackson and Ben Sheppard are out, though T.J. McConnell should suit up. Head-to-head battles have been tight, with Miami holding a slight series lead, but Indiana's 128-115 road upset last time reminds us of their upset potential.

Still, with 62% of betting action on the Heat and odds at 1.30 for Miami versus 3.65 for Indiana, the value lies in backing the home team to bounce back. Expect Miami's fiery crowd to ignite a six-point triumph, covering the spread in a gritty defensive affair. This isn't just a pick—it's a smart play for bettors eyeing profitability in the NBA's holiday stretch.

Miami's home edge against Indiana's porous defense, highlighted by DRatings' six-point victory projection, makes the Heat a strong favorite despite recent struggles. The Pacers' dismal 6-24 record and five straight blowout losses suggest they're ill-equipped to handle a desperate Heat squad at the Kaseya Center, even with key injuries on both sides.

While Tyler Herro's absence and Bam Adebayo's questionable status are concerns, Indiana's own roster gaps and defensive woes are more significant. Betting crowds give Miami a 62% win probability, aligning with the heavy 1.30 moneyline odds. This price is steep, but Indiana's 3.65 payout doesn't justify backing a team in freefall.

Ultimately, the Heat's need to stop their skid, combined with home-court advantage and a favorable matchup, should lead to a cover-worthy win, making the favorite the profitable side here.

The Miami Heat enter this matchup as heavy favorites with odds of 1.30, reflecting their strong home-court advantage and the Pacers' struggles. Despite missing Tyler Herro and uncertainty around Bam Adebayo, the Heat’s depth—bolstered by probable contributions from Wiggins and Jovic—should keep them competitive. Indiana, meanwhile, has been in freefall, losing five straight games by significant margins, which doesn’t bode well against a motivated Heat squad looking to rebound from recent back-to-back losses.

DRatings projects a six-point Miami win, aligning with historical trends showing the Heat's dominance at Kaseya Center. While the Pacers have shown flashes of brilliance on the road, like their 128-115 upset earlier this season, they’re without key players Isaiah Jackson and Ben Sheppard. Even if T.J. McConnell plays, his presence alone won’t be enough to counter Miami’s firepower and defensive resilience.

The betting public seems confident, assigning Miami a 62% chance to win. With the odds for Indiana sitting at 3.65, there’s value in siding with the Heat despite the steep price. Their urgency to turn things around combined with Indiana’s defensive frailties makes Miami the clear choice here.