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Betting tips from AI for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
AI Consensus
4.04
Away win
6 of 6 AI models pick Derby County to win at
4.04
ChatGPT tip
Derby County win
4.04
ChatGPT prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
Riverside stages a live one: Middlesbrough are favorites but come in patchy, with just one win in five despite solid underlying numbers and 1.60 PPG at home.
Derby’s away profile screams danger for hosts: 75% road win rate, 2.25 PPG away, three straight away wins, and 1.60 goals per game on their travels. That travelling punch offsets Boro’s historical edge.
Head-to-head leans tight (recent 1-0s to Boro), so margins are fine and variance matters. BTTS has strong trends, and Over 1.5 looks safer than 2.5.
This is a price play: Boro at 1.75 is fair for favorites, but Derby at 4.94 implies ~20% when current away form suggests a higher true chance. With Draw at 3.59, the biggest expected value sits on the Rams for a small-stakes swing at a chunky return.
Derby’s away profile screams danger for hosts: 75% road win rate, 2.25 PPG away, three straight away wins, and 1.60 goals per game on their travels. That travelling punch offsets Boro’s historical edge.
Head-to-head leans tight (recent 1-0s to Boro), so margins are fine and variance matters. BTTS has strong trends, and Over 1.5 looks safer than 2.5.
This is a price play: Boro at 1.75 is fair for favorites, but Derby at 4.94 implies ~20% when current away form suggests a higher true chance. With Draw at 3.59, the biggest expected value sits on the Rams for a small-stakes swing at a chunky return.
Gemini tip
Derby County win
4.04
Gemini prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
This EFL Championship clash at the Riverside presents a classic conundrum: a strong home side versus a formidable traveling team. Middlesbrough, despite an inconsistent run of just one win in their last five matches, have historically dominated this fixture, winning the last two encounters against Derby on home soil. Bookmakers have installed them as the favorites at 1.75, largely based on this home advantage.
However, Derby County's current form on the road is impossible to ignore. The Rams are flying, boasting a remarkable 75% away win rate and riding a three-game winning streak away from home. They have proven to be a potent attacking force on their travels, averaging 1.60 goals per game in their last ten away fixtures.
While Boro's home record is respectable, their recent stuttering form makes them vulnerable. The odds of 4.94 for a Derby victory represent outstanding value for a team in such blistering away form. We're backing the momentum and picking the visitors to defy history and secure a valuable three points.
However, Derby County's current form on the road is impossible to ignore. The Rams are flying, boasting a remarkable 75% away win rate and riding a three-game winning streak away from home. They have proven to be a potent attacking force on their travels, averaging 1.60 goals per game in their last ten away fixtures.
While Boro's home record is respectable, their recent stuttering form makes them vulnerable. The odds of 4.94 for a Derby victory represent outstanding value for a team in such blistering away form. We're backing the momentum and picking the visitors to defy history and secure a valuable three points.
Claude tip
Derby County win
4.04
Claude prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
Derby County's exceptional away form makes them the value play despite Middlesbrough being home favorites at 1.75. The Rams boast a remarkable 75% away win rate with 2.25 points per game on the road, having won three consecutive away matches. This stark contrast to Middlesbrough's inconsistent home form, managing just one win in five recent matches, creates a compelling betting opportunity.
While Boro holds historical dominance with 67 wins in 154 meetings, current form trumps history in Championship betting. Derby's superior away statistics (1.60 goals per game) against Middlesbrough's modest home output (1.40 goals) suggests the visitors can capitalize on their momentum.
The 4.94 odds on Derby represent exceptional value given their road prowess. Middlesbrough's 59% bookmaker probability appears inflated based on home advantage rather than current performance metrics.
While Boro holds historical dominance with 67 wins in 154 meetings, current form trumps history in Championship betting. Derby's superior away statistics (1.60 goals per game) against Middlesbrough's modest home output (1.40 goals) suggests the visitors can capitalize on their momentum.
The 4.94 odds on Derby represent exceptional value given their road prowess. Middlesbrough's 59% bookmaker probability appears inflated based on home advantage rather than current performance metrics.
Grok tip
Derby County win
4.04
Grok prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
As we gear up for this EFL Championship clash at the Riverside, Middlesbrough enter as favorites with odds of 1.75, but Derby County's road warrior status makes this a tantalizing upset opportunity.
Middlesbrough's form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five despite solid underlying stats, and they've averaged 1.40 goals per home game. Yet, their historical edge is clear, leading Derby 67-52 in 154 meetings, including a 1-0 victory in their last encounter back in May.
Derby, however, are thriving away from home with a 75% win rate and three straight road victories, racking up 2.25 points per game on their travels. Their last ten away fixtures show six wins, highlighting their resilience and scoring prowess at 1.60 goals per match.
While experts predict a narrow Boro win like 2-1, Derby's momentum suggests they could snatch it. I'm backing the visitors for a surprise 2-1 triumph, capitalizing on those juicy 4.94 odds for maximum profit potential.
Middlesbrough's form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five despite solid underlying stats, and they've averaged 1.40 goals per home game. Yet, their historical edge is clear, leading Derby 67-52 in 154 meetings, including a 1-0 victory in their last encounter back in May.
Derby, however, are thriving away from home with a 75% win rate and three straight road victories, racking up 2.25 points per game on their travels. Their last ten away fixtures show six wins, highlighting their resilience and scoring prowess at 1.60 goals per match.
While experts predict a narrow Boro win like 2-1, Derby's momentum suggests they could snatch it. I'm backing the visitors for a surprise 2-1 triumph, capitalizing on those juicy 4.94 odds for maximum profit potential.
DeepSeek tip
Derby County win
4.04
DeepSeek prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
Middlesbrough enter this clash with inconsistent home form, averaging 1.60 points per game but struggling to convert underlying stats into wins. Derby County, however, are formidable travelers with a 75% away win rate and three consecutive road victories, showcasing strong momentum. While Middlesbrough are historical favorites and narrowly won their last home meeting, Derby's current away prowess and higher-scoring tendencies make them a compelling underdog at 4.94. Given the value and recent trends, backing Derby offers significant profit potential despite Middlesbrough's slight statistical edge.
Qwen tip
Derby County win
4.04
Qwen prediction for Middlesbrough vs Derby County, 29 November 2025.
Middlesbrough enter this clash as favorites with odds of 1.75, but their inconsistent form raises red flags. Despite a historical edge over Derby County, they’ve only managed one win in their last five games and average a modest 1.40 goals per home match. Their attack has struggled to convert chances into consistent results, which could be problematic against a resurgent Derby side.
Derby County’s away form tells a compelling story. With a 75% win rate on the road and an average of 1.60 goals per game, they look dangerous. Their recent three-match winning streak away from home suggests they’re peaking at the right time. Additionally, their 75% BTTS record on the road hints at their ability to both score and concede, adding intrigue to the matchup.
While Middlesbrough are statistically favored with a 59% implied probability, the value seems to lie elsewhere. Derby’s odds of 4.94 present an enticing opportunity for bettors willing to back the underdog. A low-scoring affair is possible, but Derby’s momentum and Middlesbrough’s struggles make a surprise outcome plausible.
Considering these factors, backing Derby County offers the most profitable potential in this matchup.
Derby County’s away form tells a compelling story. With a 75% win rate on the road and an average of 1.60 goals per game, they look dangerous. Their recent three-match winning streak away from home suggests they’re peaking at the right time. Additionally, their 75% BTTS record on the road hints at their ability to both score and concede, adding intrigue to the matchup.
While Middlesbrough are statistically favored with a 59% implied probability, the value seems to lie elsewhere. Derby’s odds of 4.94 present an enticing opportunity for bettors willing to back the underdog. A low-scoring affair is possible, but Derby’s momentum and Middlesbrough’s struggles make a surprise outcome plausible.
Considering these factors, backing Derby County offers the most profitable potential in this matchup.
Match News
# Middlesbrough vs Derby County: Match Preview & Analysis
## Form and Recent Performance
Middlesbrough arrive at the Riverside with inconsistent results, managing just one win in their last five matches despite posting respectable underlying statistics[1]. The hosts have accumulated 1.60 points per game at home with an average of 1.40 goals scored per match, though their overall season record shows three wins, three losses, and four draws across their last ten games[2].
Derby County, by contrast, have emerged as a formidable traveling side with a 75% away win rate and 2.25 points per game on the road[1]. The visitors have won three consecutive away matches and boast six wins, two draws, and two defeats in their last ten away fixtures, averaging 1.60 goals scored per game[2].
## Head-to-Head Context
Middlesbrough hold a significant historical advantage over Derby, leading 67-52 across 154 meetings in all competitions[5]. The clubs last met in May with Middlesbrough securing a 1-0 home victory in the Championship[5], though their most recent league encounter on March 1, 2025, also ended 1-0 to the hosts[6].
## Match Predictions
Expert analysis presents divergent forecasts for this encounter. While some analysts favor a narrow Middlesbrough victory with a 2-1 scoreline[3][4], others predict a tighter affair, with predictions ranging from a 1-1 draw to a 2-0 Middlesbrough win[1][8]. Middlesbrough are listed as betting favorites with a 59% probability of victory according to bookmakers[2].
## Betting Angles
The statistical profile suggests an open contest with multiple scoring opportunities. Both Teams to Score appears likely given Derby's 75% BTTS record in away matches and Middlesbrough's 80% BTTS at home[1]. Over 1.5 Goals is favored over the 2.5 threshold, with predictions leaning toward a low-scoring affair despite the attacking potential[1][2].
## Form and Recent Performance
Middlesbrough arrive at the Riverside with inconsistent results, managing just one win in their last five matches despite posting respectable underlying statistics[1]. The hosts have accumulated 1.60 points per game at home with an average of 1.40 goals scored per match, though their overall season record shows three wins, three losses, and four draws across their last ten games[2].
Derby County, by contrast, have emerged as a formidable traveling side with a 75% away win rate and 2.25 points per game on the road[1]. The visitors have won three consecutive away matches and boast six wins, two draws, and two defeats in their last ten away fixtures, averaging 1.60 goals scored per game[2].
## Head-to-Head Context
Middlesbrough hold a significant historical advantage over Derby, leading 67-52 across 154 meetings in all competitions[5]. The clubs last met in May with Middlesbrough securing a 1-0 home victory in the Championship[5], though their most recent league encounter on March 1, 2025, also ended 1-0 to the hosts[6].
## Match Predictions
Expert analysis presents divergent forecasts for this encounter. While some analysts favor a narrow Middlesbrough victory with a 2-1 scoreline[3][4], others predict a tighter affair, with predictions ranging from a 1-1 draw to a 2-0 Middlesbrough win[1][8]. Middlesbrough are listed as betting favorites with a 59% probability of victory according to bookmakers[2].
## Betting Angles
The statistical profile suggests an open contest with multiple scoring opportunities. Both Teams to Score appears likely given Derby's 75% BTTS record in away matches and Middlesbrough's 80% BTTS at home[1]. Over 1.5 Goals is favored over the 2.5 threshold, with predictions leaning toward a low-scoring affair despite the attacking potential[1][2].
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