Betting tips from AI for Miles Johns vs Daniel Marcos, 08 November 2025.

Market has Daniel Marcos a clear favorite at 1.54 with Miles Johns the underdog at 2.56 (Draw at 38.00). This bantamweight matchup lands at the UFC Apex on Nov 8, 2025, after both fighters were rebooked due to late withdrawals. Importantly, neither man carries reported injuries into fight week, so we can handicap without major red flags.

Form snapshot: Johns is on a two-fight skid, most recently a razor-close split decision in August 2025. Even in defeat, his fights tend to be competitive, and his base—wrestle-boxing with measured pressure—translates reliably to rounds won when he’s securing top time and cage control. He rarely gets blown out, which is key when backing an underdog who needs minutes, not moments, to cash. The question with Johns is always whether his activity and late-fight cardio sustain across 15 minutes; when they do, his game is very judge-friendly in the Apex.

Marcos, meanwhile, tasted his first pro loss in May 2025 via unanimous decision after two earlier decision wins. He profiles as a clean, high-output striker who sets rhythm with jabs, body work, and calf kicks, and he’s generally defensively sound. However, when matched with opponents who can force clinches, make him address level changes, and break his cadence, his offense can slow just enough to swing close rounds against him. That dynamic matters in a small cage.

Stylistically, the 25-foot Apex often amplifies wrestling and clinch sequences. That leans slightly toward Johns’ path: crowd entries, chain attempts against the fence, and bank control time while landing short offense. Marcos’ path is clearer at range—punish entries with jabs and low kicks, pivot off the fence, and keep it clean. If Marcos can consistently stuff first-layer shots and re-center, his volume should carry the cards. But if Johns wins the real estate battle early, Marcos is prone to stretches of lower output that let Johns steal swing rounds.

Pricing is the edge. At 1.54, the market implies roughly 65% for Marcos; at 2.56, Johns implies ~39%. I rate this closer to 56–58% Marcos and 42–44% Johns given the small cage, Johns’ wrestle-forward style, and both men’s tendency to go long. On a $1 stake, a conservative 42% Johns fair line yields positive expected value: 0.42 × 1.56 − 0.58 × 1 ≈ +$0.08. That’s the kind of modest, repeatable edge we seek.

Risks: Marcos’ calf kicks can erode Johns’ entries, and if Johns’ pace dips late, Marcos’ clean boxing can sweep rounds two and three. Still, with no injury clouds and a wrestle-friendly venue, the underdog price is simply too generous.

The bet: Miles Johns moneyline at 2.56. We’re siding with the positional upside and small-cage dynamics at a number that meaningfully outpaces a reasonable fair price.

In an intriguing bantamweight matchup hastily put together for UFC Vegas 111, we find Daniel Marcos pitted against Miles Johns. Marcos, the Peruvian prospect, enters as the betting favorite with odds around 1.54, and for good reason. He is coming off the first loss of his professional career, a unanimous decision defeat to the highly athletic and powerful Montel Jackson. While a loss is never ideal, the context is crucial. Jackson is a top-tier bantamweight, and the experience gained in that fight will likely prove invaluable for Marcos. Before that setback, he had looked impressive in the UFC, showcasing high-volume, technical striking and excellent cardio.

Miles Johns, on the other hand, finds himself in a precarious position. He is currently riding a two-fight losing streak, a dangerous spot for any fighter on the UFC roster. His most recent outing was a split decision loss to Jean Matsumoto, indicating he remains competitive but is struggling to get his hand raised. Johns' primary path to victory lies in his wrestling and his powerful right hand. He is a physically strong bantamweight who can end the fight with one shot or control it on the mat. However, his striking can be somewhat rudimentary, and he can be out-worked by opponents with superior volume and footwork.

This fight was booked on relatively short notice for both men, which often favors the fighter with the more sustainable, high-paced style. That fighter is Daniel Marcos. His game isn't reliant on a complex, opponent-specific strategy. He pressures forward, throws in combination, and attacks the legs and body to wear his opponents down. This is a difficult style to prepare for without a full camp. Johns will need to find opportunities to land his power shots or secure takedowns against a fighter who will be constantly moving and throwing strikes. While Johns' power makes him a live underdog at 2.56, Marcos has shown solid durability throughout his career.

The most probable outcome is Marcos utilizing his superior striking technique and output to out-point Johns from a distance. He will likely chop at the legs to slow Johns' movement, mitigating the wrestling and knockout threat. Over three rounds, Marcos's activity and accuracy should be enough to sway the judges in his favor, allowing him to bounce back into the win column and justify his status as the favorite.

Alright, fight fans, let's dive into this intriguing bantamweight clash between Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos set for UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025. This bout came together on short notice after both fighters had their original opponents pull out, adding an extra layer of unpredictability to the mix. Johns was supposed to face Muin Gafurov, while Marcos was lined up against Felipe Lima, but here we are with a fresh matchup that could deliver some fireworks at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

First off, let's talk about Miles Johns. The 31-year-old from Kansas is riding a rough patch with a two-fight losing streak, most recently dropping a split decision to Jean Matsumoto in August 2025. That loss was razor-close, showcasing Johns' resilience and striking prowess, but it highlighted some vulnerabilities in his grappling defense. Johns boasts a solid 13-3 record overall, with nine knockouts, so he's no stranger to ending fights early. However, his recent form suggests he might be struggling to adapt against versatile opponents. On the plus side, there are no reported injuries for Johns, and this rebooking gives him a chance to bounce back against a similarly styled fighter.

Now, shifting gears to Daniel Marcos, the Peruvian prospect who burst onto the UFC scene with an undefeated streak until his first professional loss in May 2025. That unanimous decision defeat came against the tough Montel Jackson, a fighter known for his length and striking volume. Prior to that, Marcos secured two decision wins earlier in the year, demonstrating his cardio, precision striking, and ability to control the pace. At 13-1, Marcos is younger at 29 and brings explosive power with seven knockouts to his name. Like Johns, he's entering this fight injury-free, which is crucial for a high-stakes bout like this.

When it comes to betting angles, the odds are telling: Marcos is favored at 1.54, implying about a 65% chance of victory, while Johns sits as the underdog at 2.56, offering solid value for those believing in an upset. The draw is a long shot at 38.00, which makes sense in MMA where decisions or finishes are far more common. From a stylistic perspective, this could be a stand-up war. Both guys prefer to strike, with Johns holding a slight edge in power but Marcos potentially superior in speed and output. Marcos' recent loss might have been a learning experience, sharpening his game against durable opponents like Johns.

Digging deeper, Johns' losing streak raises red flags. His split decision loss to Matsumoto showed he can hang with top talent, but consistency has been an issue. Marcos, on the other hand, has shown he can grind out wins even when not at his flashiest. The short-notice nature might favor the fighter with better adaptability, and Marcos' youth and momentum could play a big role. If Johns can dictate the range and land heavy shots early, he might steal it, but I see Marcos' technical striking and footwork giving him the edge over three rounds.

For bettors, if you're chasing value, a play on Johns at 2.56 could pay off if he channels his knockout power. But for a more conservative approach, Marcos at 1.54 feels like the smarter money, especially considering his overall record and the fact that his loss was to a ranked contender. This fight has all the makings of an exciting prelim scrap – don't sleep on it if you're tuning into UFC Vegas 111.

The bantamweight clash between Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos at UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, is a compelling matchup shaped by recent opponent changes and fighter form. Both athletes are stepping in on short notice, with Johns replacing Muin Gafurov and Marcos taking over for Felipe Lima, adding an element of unpredictability that could influence their performance under pressure. This fight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas pits two fighters seeking redemption, making it a must-watch for MMA enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Miles Johns enters this bout on a two-fight losing streak, most recently dropping a split decision to Jean Matsumoto in August 2025. Consecutive losses often signal issues with confidence or strategy, which could leave him vulnerable against a motivated opponent. Although there are no reported injuries, Johns' mental resilience will be tested as he aims to break his slump in a high-stakes environment.

Daniel Marcos, meanwhile, suffered his first professional loss in May 2025 to Montel Jackson but had two decision wins earlier in the year, showcasing his ability to compete effectively. This rebound potential makes him a strong contender, as he likely enters with renewed focus and technical sharpness. With no injury concerns, Marcos is well-positioned to exploit any weaknesses in Johns' game, leveraging his experience to control the fight.

The bookmaker odds reflect this dynamic, with Daniel Marcos favored at 1.54 and Miles Johns as the underdog at 2.56, while a draw is a long shot at 38.00. These lines suggest Marcos has a higher implied probability of winning, around 60%, offering solid value for bettors seeking consistent returns. Given Johns' recent struggles, the risk of backing him may not align with profitable betting strategies, whereas Marcos presents a more reliable opportunity.

In summary, Daniel Marcos' determination to bounce back from his first loss and his previous winning form give him a clear advantage. Bettors should consider his odds for a strategic wager, as his mental edge and physical readiness make him the likely victor in this evenly matched but form-driven contest.

This matchup between Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos presents an intriguing betting opportunity with the odds heavily favoring Daniel Marcos at 1.54, while Miles Johns sits at 2.56. The draw is a distant possibility at 38.00, but it’s worth examining both fighters’ recent performances to determine whether the underdog has any realistic chance of pulling off an upset.
Miles Johns enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak, which significantly clouds his prospects. His most recent bout ended in a split decision loss to Jean Matsumoto in August 2025. Split decisions often indicate closely contested fights, but they also suggest that Johns may be struggling to impose his will on opponents consistently. Being rebooked after Muin Gafurov withdrew from their scheduled bout could add another layer of unpredictability for Johns. While there are no injury concerns reported, the psychological toll of consecutive losses cannot be overlooked. Fighters in such slumps often face additional pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes in high-stakes situations.
On the other hand, Daniel Marcos brings a slightly more promising narrative into this fight. Although he suffered his first professional defeat in May 2025—a unanimous decision loss to Montel Jackson—his previous track record includes two decision wins earlier in the year. This demonstrates that Marcos has shown consistency and adaptability in his approach. Moreover, like Johns, he was rebooked after Felipe Lima withdrew, so both fighters come into this bout with similar preparation timelines. However, Marcos’ ability to rebound from his sole loss suggests resilience, something that might give him a mental edge over Johns."The dynamics of this fight lean toward Marcos due to his fresher momentum despite his own setback. A 1.54 favorite line implies that bookmakers view him as having a significant advantage, likely stemming from his technical skills and experience against higher-level competition. Jackson, who defeated Marcos, is widely regarded as a rising contender, whereas Johns' losses have come against less heralded opponents. If Marcos can replicate the game plan that worked against Jackson, controlling distance and using effective footwork, he should dominate this fight."However, the question remains: Is there value in backing Johns at 2.56? Underdogs always carry appeal, especially when they possess tangible strengths. Johns is known for his grappling acumen and relentless pace, traits that could trouble Marcos if executed effectively. Yet, considering his current form and the difficulty he's had closing out fights recently, trusting him to deliver under these circumstances feels risky. Bettors looking for long-shot payouts might find some allure here, but the safer investment lies with Marcos.