Betting tips from AI for Mirassol vs Flamengo, 06 December 2025.

Flamengo arrive as league leaders with the title on the line, but Mirassol’s recent surge and rock-solid home form make this a mouthwatering, low-scoring upset possibility. The visitors nursed a 1-0 win over Ceará while Mirassol thumped Vasco 2-0 and have won seven recent home matches, so the setting is electric and tight.
Bookmakers peg Mirassol as heavy favorites at 1.30, with Flamengo priced outrageously long at 8.71 and the draw at 5.01. Yet betting models give Mirassol just 40.65% and the draw 28.85%, implying Flamengo roughly a 30.5% chance — far above the market-implied chance behind +771. That massive gap creates clear positive EV on Flamengo despite the risks of Mirassol’s home fortress and their August 2-1 reverse.
Given the pricing distortion, the profitable, value-driven call is to back Flamengo.

This Brasileirão Série A clash presents a fascinating scenario. Flamengo, the league leaders with 78 points, face a tough road test against a resurgent Mirassol side that has climbed to fourth place. While history favors Flamengo, who secured a 2-1 victory earlier this season, Mirassol's recent form makes them a formidable opponent. They've transformed their home ground, the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, into a fortress, averaging 2.8 goals per game and winning seven of their last home matches. Mirassol's impressive 2-0 win over Vasco da Gama in their last outing, coupled with Flamengo's narrow 1-0 victory against Ceará, suggests Mirassol is hitting peak form at the right time. Betting algorithms reflect this competitive balance, giving Mirassol a 40.65% chance of victory and a draw at 28.85%. Despite Flamengo's superior league position, the odds of Mirassol at 1.30 seem too high for a team with such a strong home record against the league leaders. Given Mirassol's home advantage and recent momentum, they are well-positioned to challenge Flamengo's title credentials. I'm leaning towards Mirassol to capitalize on their home strength and upset the league leaders.

Mirassol's impressive home form makes them strong favorites at 1.30 against league leaders Flamengo, who come in as surprising underdogs at 8.71. The hosts' average of 2.8 goals per game at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia has turned their ground into a fortress, with seven recent home victories highlighting their dominance on familiar territory.

Despite Flamengo sitting atop the Brasileirão with 78 points from 37 matches, their away form has been their Achilles' heel. Mirassol's recent 2-0 triumph over Vasco da Gama demonstrates their current confidence, while Flamengo's narrow 1-0 win against Ceará suggests they're not firing on all cylinders.

Though Flamengo claimed a 2-1 victory in their previous meeting this season, Mirassol's home advantage and momentum should prove decisive. With betting algorithms giving Mirassol a 40.65% chance of victory, the hosts are well-positioned to secure three points in this crucial late-season clash.

Flamengo, the league leaders with 78 points from 37 matches, head into this clash as favorites, but Mirassol's home form is a real curveball. At the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, the hosts average 2.8 goals per game and have notched seven recent wins, including a solid 2-0 victory over Vasco da Gama. Their resurgent climb to fourth place screams upset potential, especially with betting algorithms pegging their win chance at 40.65%—not bad for underdogs at 1.30.

That said, Flamengo's pedigree shines through. They sit atop the table, fresh off a gritty 1-0 win against Ceará, and hold the edge from a 2-1 victory earlier this season against Mirassol. History and momentum favor the visitors, who need this to keep their title push alive. The draw at 5.01 tempts, but with Flamengo's quality, I see them grinding out a win on the road.

For a $1 bet, Flamengo at 8.71 offers massive value—backing the leaders to navigate this tricky fixture feels like the smart play for long-term profits.

Flamengo sits atop the Brasileirão, but Mirassol's home fortress—where they average 2.8 goals per game—poses a real threat. Betting algorithms reflect this balance, giving Mirassol just a 40.65% chance despite heavy favorite odds of 1.30.

History sides with Flamengo after their 2-1 win earlier this season, and at enticing odds of 8.71, the visitors present tremendous value. With both teams riding momentum, Flamengo's title credentials and higher true probability make them the profitable pick to edge a tight contest.

This Brasileirão clash between Mirassol and Flamengo presents a fascinating tactical battle with significant implications for both sides. Flamengo, sitting at the top of the table with 78 points from 37 matches, are in prime position to seal their title credentials. However, Mirassol's recent resurgence cannot be ignored. Their convincing 2-0 win over Vasco da Gama showcased their attacking prowess, and their home record is formidable—averaging 2.8 goals per game and securing seven wins in recent fixtures at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.

The odds tell an intriguing story: Mirassol are priced at 1.30, reflecting their strong home form, while Flamengo’s away challenges are evident in their steep odds of 8.71. A draw sits at 5.01, hinting at the competitive balance between these two teams. Flamengo edged past Ceará 1-0 in their last match, but their narrow victories suggest vulnerability against well-organized opponents. Mirassol will look to exploit this, especially given their hunger for revenge after Flamengo’s 2-1 win earlier this season.

While Flamengo’s historical dominance and league position make them favorites on paper, the situational dynamics favor Mirassol. The hosts’ momentum, combined with Flamengo potentially resting key players ahead of other priorities, tilts the scales slightly toward the home side.