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Betting tips from AI for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
AI Consensus
1.81
Home win
6 of 6 AI models pick New Mexico Lobos to win at
1.81
ChatGPT tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
ChatGPT prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
This looks like a coin-flip on paper, but the value tilts to New Mexico at home at 2.01.
The Lobos have ripped off five straight since an 0-2 league start and have won six in a row in Albuquerque, fresh off holding Air Force to 3 points and 161 yards. Their trenches are legit: top-20 in Line Yards on offense and Stuff Rate on defense, which pairs well against an Aztecs unit that’s elite vs the run but shaky moving the ball. San Diego State’s offense ranks 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive, with a turnover-prone QB and just 3-2 away.
In a low-total, field-position game, the home edge and cleaner offense lean Lobos. A 23-21 projection fits. Bet: New Mexico moneyline 2.01 over San Diego State at 1.87.
The Lobos have ripped off five straight since an 0-2 league start and have won six in a row in Albuquerque, fresh off holding Air Force to 3 points and 161 yards. Their trenches are legit: top-20 in Line Yards on offense and Stuff Rate on defense, which pairs well against an Aztecs unit that’s elite vs the run but shaky moving the ball. San Diego State’s offense ranks 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive, with a turnover-prone QB and just 3-2 away.
In a low-total, field-position game, the home edge and cleaner offense lean Lobos. A 23-21 projection fits. Bet: New Mexico moneyline 2.01 over San Diego State at 1.87.
Gemini tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
Gemini prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
This Mountain West clash is a classic case of a team peaking at the perfect moment. While San Diego State boasts a strong 9-2 record and a stout defense, their vulnerabilities are glaring. The Aztecs have been inconsistent on the road (3-2) and their offense is a major concern, ranking 91st nationally in quality drive rate with a turnover-prone quarterback under center.
Enter the New Mexico Lobos, a team that has transformed into a legitimate contender. They are riding a five-game winning streak and have won six straight at University Stadium. Their recent defensive masterpiece, holding Air Force to just three points and 161 total yards, proves they can dominate. The Lobos' top-20 ranked offensive line and defensive stuff rate show they control the trenches.
With a potential conference championship berth on the line, playing in front of a raucous home crowd, New Mexico has all the momentum. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage will neutralize San Diego State's strength and exploit their anemic offense. The value on the Lobos at 2.01 is undeniable.
Enter the New Mexico Lobos, a team that has transformed into a legitimate contender. They are riding a five-game winning streak and have won six straight at University Stadium. Their recent defensive masterpiece, holding Air Force to just three points and 161 total yards, proves they can dominate. The Lobos' top-20 ranked offensive line and defensive stuff rate show they control the trenches.
With a potential conference championship berth on the line, playing in front of a raucous home crowd, New Mexico has all the momentum. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage will neutralize San Diego State's strength and exploit their anemic offense. The value on the Lobos at 2.01 is undeniable.
Claude tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
Claude prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
New Mexico's six-game home winning streak and five consecutive victories following their slow 0-2 conference start make them a compelling value play at 2.01. The Lobos have dominated in the trenches, ranking top-20 nationally in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, while their recent defensive masterpiece against Air Force (allowing just 3 points and 161 yards) showcases their championship-caliber form.
San Diego State enters with a superior 9-2 record but carries concerning offensive vulnerabilities - ranking 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive with turnover issues at quarterback. Their 3-2 road record pales compared to New Mexico's home dominance.
The Aztecs' defensive strength (21st in rushing defense) will be tested by New Mexico's efficient ground attack and top-20 offensive line. With a potential Mountain West Championship berth on the line, the motivated Lobos should capitalize on home-field advantage in this low-scoring affair.
San Diego State enters with a superior 9-2 record but carries concerning offensive vulnerabilities - ranking 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive with turnover issues at quarterback. Their 3-2 road record pales compared to New Mexico's home dominance.
The Aztecs' defensive strength (21st in rushing defense) will be tested by New Mexico's efficient ground attack and top-20 offensive line. With a potential Mountain West Championship berth on the line, the motivated Lobos should capitalize on home-field advantage in this low-scoring affair.
Grok tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
Grok prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
As the San Diego State Aztecs roll into Albuquerque for this Mountain West clash, they're pegged as slight favorites at 1.87, with the New Mexico Lobos as underdogs at 2.01. But don't sleep on the Lobos—they've turned their season around with five straight wins, including a defensive masterclass against Air Force, holding them to just three points and 161 yards.
New Mexico's home dominance is key here, riding a six-game win streak at University Stadium, where their top-20 offensive line and Stuff Rate on defense let them control the trenches. Meanwhile, the Aztecs, despite a strong 9-2 record and back-to-back victories like their 25-3 drubbing of San Jose State, have shown road vulnerabilities with a 3-2 away mark and an offense ranking 109th in points per quality drive, plagued by turnovers.
This matchup screams upset potential. With analysts split and one model predicting a 23-21 Lobos win, their efficient passing and ground game could exploit San Diego State's weaknesses. Betting on New Mexico offers great value—ride the home team's momentum for a profitable payout.
New Mexico's home dominance is key here, riding a six-game win streak at University Stadium, where their top-20 offensive line and Stuff Rate on defense let them control the trenches. Meanwhile, the Aztecs, despite a strong 9-2 record and back-to-back victories like their 25-3 drubbing of San Jose State, have shown road vulnerabilities with a 3-2 away mark and an offense ranking 109th in points per quality drive, plagued by turnovers.
This matchup screams upset potential. With analysts split and one model predicting a 23-21 Lobos win, their efficient passing and ground game could exploit San Diego State's weaknesses. Betting on New Mexico offers great value—ride the home team's momentum for a profitable payout.
DeepSeek tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
DeepSeek prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
New Mexico Lobos have surged with five straight wins, showcasing a dominant defense that just held Air Force to three points and 161 total yards. Their top-20 offensive line and ground game can exploit San Diego State's vulnerable offense, which ranks 91st in quality drives and struggles with turnovers.
While the Aztecs bring momentum from back-to-back wins, their 1.87 road record is shaky at 3-2, and they face a Lobos squad riding a six-game home winning streak. New Mexico’s trench control and motivation for a championship berth give them the edge to cover and win outright at attractive 2.01 odds.
While the Aztecs bring momentum from back-to-back wins, their 1.87 road record is shaky at 3-2, and they face a Lobos squad riding a six-game home winning streak. New Mexico’s trench control and motivation for a championship berth give them the edge to cover and win outright at attractive 2.01 odds.
Qwen tip
New Mexico Lobos win
1.81
Qwen prediction for New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs, 28 November 2025.
This Mountain West showdown between New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs presents a fascinating clash of styles and motivations. The Lobos have been on an impressive roll, winning six straight home games and showcasing a dominant defense that held Air Force to just three points in their last outing. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage could prove decisive against an Aztecs team that struggles offensively, ranking 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive. While San Diego State brings momentum from back-to-back wins and sits atop the conference standings, their road record of 3-2 suggests vulnerability away from home.
The betting odds reflect this uncertainty, with New Mexico offered at 2.01 and San Diego State at 1.87. These numbers indicate a closely contested matchup, but the value lies with the Lobos. New Mexico’s recent form, combined with their top-20 defensive metrics and motivation for a potential conference championship berth, makes them a compelling pick. Additionally, prediction models favor the Lobos 23-21, highlighting their trench dominance as a key factor.
Given the Lobos' home-field advantage, superior recent performances, and San Diego State's offensive limitations, backing New Mexico at these odds seems like a smart wager.
The betting odds reflect this uncertainty, with New Mexico offered at 2.01 and San Diego State at 1.87. These numbers indicate a closely contested matchup, but the value lies with the Lobos. New Mexico’s recent form, combined with their top-20 defensive metrics and motivation for a potential conference championship berth, makes them a compelling pick. Additionally, prediction models favor the Lobos 23-21, highlighting their trench dominance as a key factor.
Given the Lobos' home-field advantage, superior recent performances, and San Diego State's offensive limitations, backing New Mexico at these odds seems like a smart wager.
Match News
## Match Preview: Aztecs Visit Albuquerque
San Diego State travels to University Stadium to face New Mexico in a critical Mountain West showdown. The Aztecs enter as slight favorites at -1.5 points, with the total set at 41.5 points.[1][5]
## Team Form and Recent Performance
San Diego State arrives with momentum, having secured back-to-back victories including a dominant 25-3 win over San Jose State at home.[2] The Aztecs sit atop the Mountain West standings with a 9-2 record, though their road performance has been inconsistent at 3-2 away from home.[2]
New Mexico has emerged as a genuine threat after a sluggish 0-2 conference start, rattling off five consecutive wins to climb into contention for the Mountain West Championship game.[4] The Lobos' most recent performance showcased their defensive prowess, holding Air Force to just three points and 161 total yards while dominating the line of scrimmage.[4] They currently sit at 8-3 overall and have won six straight games at home.[2]
## Contrasting Styles Set Up Intriguing Matchup
This contest pits San Diego State's defensive-minded, low-scoring approach against New Mexico's efficient passing attack and dominant ground game. The Aztecs rank 21st nationally in rushing defense, while the Lobos check in at 22nd, creating a fascinating clash of run-stopping units.[1]
New Mexico's offensive line ranks in the top-20 nationally for Line Yards, and their defense excels with a top-20 Stuff Rate, enabling them to control games through the trenches.[4] San Diego State's offense, however, presents vulnerabilities—ranking 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive, with a turnover-prone quarterback.[3]
## Prediction Consensus
Analysts are split on this matchup. While some favor San Diego State's experience and overall record, others highlight New Mexico's home-field advantage and recent dominant form.[3][5] One prediction model favors the Lobos 23-21, citing their ability to impose their will in the trenches and the motivation of a potential conference championship berth.[5]
San Diego State travels to University Stadium to face New Mexico in a critical Mountain West showdown. The Aztecs enter as slight favorites at -1.5 points, with the total set at 41.5 points.[1][5]
## Team Form and Recent Performance
San Diego State arrives with momentum, having secured back-to-back victories including a dominant 25-3 win over San Jose State at home.[2] The Aztecs sit atop the Mountain West standings with a 9-2 record, though their road performance has been inconsistent at 3-2 away from home.[2]
New Mexico has emerged as a genuine threat after a sluggish 0-2 conference start, rattling off five consecutive wins to climb into contention for the Mountain West Championship game.[4] The Lobos' most recent performance showcased their defensive prowess, holding Air Force to just three points and 161 total yards while dominating the line of scrimmage.[4] They currently sit at 8-3 overall and have won six straight games at home.[2]
## Contrasting Styles Set Up Intriguing Matchup
This contest pits San Diego State's defensive-minded, low-scoring approach against New Mexico's efficient passing attack and dominant ground game. The Aztecs rank 21st nationally in rushing defense, while the Lobos check in at 22nd, creating a fascinating clash of run-stopping units.[1]
New Mexico's offensive line ranks in the top-20 nationally for Line Yards, and their defense excels with a top-20 Stuff Rate, enabling them to control games through the trenches.[4] San Diego State's offense, however, presents vulnerabilities—ranking 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive, with a turnover-prone quarterback.[3]
## Prediction Consensus
Analysts are split on this matchup. While some favor San Diego State's experience and overall record, others highlight New Mexico's home-field advantage and recent dominant form.[3][5] One prediction model favors the Lobos 23-21, citing their ability to impose their will in the trenches and the motivation of a potential conference championship berth.[5]
See how multiple AI models rate New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs. We aggregate today's
betting tips and highlight agreement between models when it occurs. Use this page to scan the overall
picture quickly, then open any model's detailed tip to read short reasoning.