Betting tips from AI for New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks, 23 November 2025.

Atlanta enter with the superior form, the cleaner profile, and a stylistic edge that specifically punishes New Orleans’ current weaknesses. The Hawks are 9-6 and averaging 117+ points with crisp ball movement and confident spacing, while the Pelicans are 2-13 on a five-game skid, bleeding points near the bottom of the defensive rankings and compounding it with frequent turnovers. That’s exactly the recipe Kendrick Perkins highlighted in calling Atlanta “clear favorites,” and it aligns with Jrue Holiday’s local warning: if New Orleans don’t tighten up, the Hawks can run away early.

The recent market read mirrors this: books price Atlanta at 1.40, about a 71.4% implied chance, and consensus markets are near 70%. Given the matchup context—Atlanta’s perimeter creation and three-point volume against a leaky Pelicans perimeter, plus a turnover differential that feeds the Hawks’ transition—we can reasonably elevate Atlanta’s true win probability into the mid-70s. New Orleans’ home court is offset by a tense atmosphere and mounting pressure; that rarely helps a team bleeding confidence and structure on defense.

From a $1 bettor’s lens, the price still works. At 1.40, a $1 stake returns roughly $0.40 net on a win. If we set Atlanta’s true win probability between 74% and 76%, expected value ranges about +$0.036 to +$0.064 per dollar (0.74×0.40 − 0.26×1 to 0.76×0.40 − 0.24×1). That’s not flashy, but it’s positive—driven by New Orleans’ turnover issues and poor defensive connectivity against one of the league’s more fluid offenses. Head-to-head trends (Hawks 3 of last 5) and the absence of notable injuries further stabilize the projection.

Could the Pelicans punch above their weight at home? Sure—and the high-scoring profile of both teams does inject variance, which typically favors underdogs at 3.05. But to exploit that, New Orleans would need to protect the ball and string together stops at levels they haven’t shown during this slide. Without evidence of a tactical pivot or personnel change, their path to the upset looks narrow relative to the price.

Recommendation: take the moneyline on the Atlanta Hawks at 1.40. It’s the solid, positive-EV side in a matchup where form, metrics, and qualitative signals all point the same way.

This NBA matchup presents a classic case of two teams on opposite trajectories, making the Atlanta Hawks a compelling, albeit heavily favored, choice. The Hawks arrive in New Orleans with a solid 9-6 record and an offensive engine that is firing on all cylinders. Averaging over 117 points per game and winning three of their last five, their system, praised by analyst Kendrick Perkins for its depth and ball movement, seems tailor-made to dismantle a struggling opponent.

The host New Orleans Pelicans, on the other hand, are in a state of disarray. Slumping to a dismal 2-13 record on the back of a five-game losing streak, their problems are fundamental and widespread. Their defense is ranked near the league's basement, a fact highlighted by former star Jrue Holiday's concern that Atlanta could "run away early." Offensively, they are plagued by turnovers, stalling any rhythm they might hope to build. The home crowd at the Smoothie King Center is expected to be more tense than supportive, with rumors of coaching changes adding immense pressure to an already fragile locker room. Even celebrity fan Lil Wayne's social media posts reflect a sense of hopelessness rather than faith.

Looking at the recent history, the Hawks have taken three of the last five contests between these teams, adding a psychological edge to their statistical superiority. Critically, with no major injuries reported for either side, this contest will be a true test of current form and system, which overwhelmingly favors Atlanta. The Pelicans are desperate, but desperation rarely patches the kind of deep-seated defensive holes they've shown all season. The betting markets reflect this reality, giving the Hawks a 70% chance to win, which aligns with their steep 1.40 odds.

While a bet on the Hawks at 1.40 offers limited payout, it represents the most logical and secure investment based on all available data. The Pelicans, priced as significant underdogs at 3.05, would need a complete reversal of form—a "miracle," as Lil Wayne put it—to overcome their defensive liabilities and outscore a potent Atlanta squad. Expect the Hawks' offense to exploit the Pelicans' weaknesses from the opening tip and secure a comfortable victory on the road.

The Hawks enter this matchup as heavy favorites with 1.40 odds, and the fundamentals strongly support this line. Atlanta's 9-6 record stands in stark contrast to New Orleans' dismal 2-13 start, but the story goes deeper than just win-loss records.

Atlanta's offensive efficiency has been their calling card this season, averaging over 117 points per game with exceptional three-point shooting. Their ball movement and depth have created a sustainable system that travels well, which is crucial for this road game. The Hawks have shown resilience even in losses, with their recent defeat to Detroit being a competitive affair that demonstrated their ability to stay in games.

New Orleans presents a perfect storm of vulnerabilities for Atlanta to exploit. The Pelicans' five-game losing streak isn't just about bad luck - it's systemic. Their defense ranks near the bottom of the league, and frequent turnovers are killing any momentum they build. When former star Jrue Holiday publicly criticizes the team's defensive lapses, it signals deep-rooted issues that won't be fixed overnight.

The psychological factors heavily favor Atlanta. The Smoothie King Center atmosphere will likely be toxic, with frustrated fans and coaching change rumors creating additional pressure on an already fragile Pelicans squad. Meanwhile, Atlanta can play freely as road favorites, knowing they're facing a team in complete disarray.

The 3.05 odds on New Orleans might seem tempting for value seekers, but this appears to be a classic case where the market has correctly identified a massive talent and form gap. Atlanta's recent head-to-head success (3-2 in last five meetings) and superior roster depth make them the clear choice despite the road disadvantage.

As we gear up for this NBA showdown between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Atlanta Hawks on November 23, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center, the betting landscape is buzzing with intrigue. The Hawks are coming in as heavy favorites with odds of 1.40, while the Pelicans sit as underdogs at 3.05. This matchup pits a surging Atlanta squad against a New Orleans team that's spiraling downward, and the recent news paints a clear picture of why smart money is leaning toward the visitors.

Let's start with the Pelicans' woes. They're mired in a brutal five-game losing streak, holding a dismal 2-13 record that has them at the bottom of the standings. Their defense is ranked near the league's worst, plagued by lapses that allow opponents to exploit easy scoring opportunities. Former Pelican Jrue Holiday didn't mince words, highlighting how New Orleans needs to 'tighten up' or risk getting blown out early. Add in frequent turnovers hampering their offense, and it's no wonder celebrity fan Lil Wayne is hoping for a 'miracle'—the team's form is indeed 'painful to watch.' With rumors of coaching changes swirling and a tense atmosphere in the arena, the Pelicans are under immense pressure, which could lead to more mistakes on the court.

On the flip side, the Atlanta Hawks are flying high at 9-6, fresh off a close loss to Detroit but boasting wins in three of their last five games. Their offense is a powerhouse, averaging over 117 points per game with lethal three-point shooting and excellent ball movement. NBA analyst Kendrick Perkins nailed it on ESPN, calling the Hawks 'clear favorites' due to their depth and recent surge. They've dominated recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five against New Orleans, and the betting markets give them a whopping 70% chance to win. Without major injuries on either side, Atlanta's consistency should shine through, especially in what promises to be a high-scoring affair—both teams have been part of games exceeding 220 total points lately.

From a betting perspective, laying the 1.40 on the Hawks might seem steep, but it's justified given the Pelicans' slump and Atlanta's offensive firepower. If you're looking for value, consider the Hawks covering the spread or an over on the total points, as these squads love to light up the scoreboard. The absence of scandals keeps the focus purely on basketball, and with no lineup shakeups, expect Atlanta to control the pace and pull away in the second half. This isn't just about form; it's about momentum—Hawks have it, Pelicans don't. For bettors, this feels like a solid spot to back the favorites and watch the profits roll in as Atlanta extends New Orleans' misery.

The Atlanta Hawks enter this matchup in a significantly stronger position than the New Orleans Pelicans, both in terms of form and roster stability. Atlanta's 9-6 record and high-powered offense, averaging over 117 points per game, contrasts sharply with the Pelicans' disastrous 2-13 start and five-game losing streak. The Hawks' offensive surge, driven by efficient ball movement and strong three-point shooting, is poised to exploit a Pelicans defense that ranks among the league's worst and is plagued by frequent turnovers. NBA analyst Kendrick Perkins' assessment that the Hawks are 'clear favorites' is backed by the numbers and recent performances, making them a reliable pick.

The psychological and environmental factors further tilt the scales in Atlanta's favor. The Smoothie King Center is expected to host a tense, frustrated crowd, with local fans disheartened by the Pelicans' persistent struggles and rumors of impending coaching changes. This atmosphere is unlikely to provide the home-court boost New Orleans desperately needs. Meanwhile, the Hawks, despite a recent close loss to Detroit, have shown resilience, winning three of their last five games and maintaining consistency on both ends of the floor. Former Pelicans star Jrue Holiday's concerns about defensive lapses highlight the systemic issues that Atlanta is well-equipped to capitalize on.

From a betting perspective, the odds reflect the clear disparity between these teams. The Hawks' moneyline at 1.40 implies a high probability of victory, which aligns with their 70% implied win chance from betting markets. While the payoff is lower, the risk is minimized by Atlanta's superior form, offensive firepower, and historical edge, having won three of the last five meetings. The Pelicans, despite being home underdogs at 3.05, offer little beyond potential for a high-reward upset, which seems unlikely given their current trajectory and lack of defensive cohesion. In a game where fundamentals and momentum are decisive, the Hawks present the most logical and profitable betting option.

The upcoming NBA matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Atlanta Hawks presents an intriguing betting scenario, particularly given the stark contrast in both teams’ current form and the bookmaker odds. With the Pelicans listed at 3.05 and the Hawks at 1.40, this game offers a classic underdog-versus-favorite dynamic. However, diving deeper into recent developments and expert opinions strongly suggests that Atlanta holds a significant edge here.
Recent comments from credible analysts like Kendrick Perkins highlight the Hawks' offensive prowess as a decisive factor. Their ability to move the ball effectively and create high-percentage scoring opportunities has been on full display recently, especially during their last five games where they averaged over 117 points per contest. This offensive consistency is further amplified by their strong three-point shooting, which can stretch defenses thin and create mismatches. On the flip side, the Pelicans are struggling mightily on defense, ranking near the bottom of the league in key metrics such as opponent field goal percentage and defensive rebounding. Former Pelican Jrue Holiday’s criticism regarding their defensive lapses underscores just how vulnerable New Orleans could be against a team like Atlanta, which thrives on exploiting defensive weaknesses.
Another critical factor is the psychological toll of losing streaks, something the Pelicans know all too well right now. At 2-13, they are mired in a five-game skid, with frustration mounting among players, coaches, and fans alike. Celebrity fan Lil Wayne’s candid admission about hoping for a “miracle” encapsulates the bleak outlook surrounding the team. Meanwhile, the Hawks enter this contest with momentum despite a narrow loss to Detroit, having won three of their last five games. This blend of confidence and resilience gives them a mental edge over a demoralized Pelicans squad."The Smoothie King Center’s atmosphere adds another layer of complexity to this analysis. While home-court advantage typically boosts performance, the palpable tension stemming from the Pelicans’ struggles may actually work against them. Reports suggest local fans are growing increasingly frustrated, and rumors about potential coaching changes loom large. Such distractions can disrupt focus and cohesion, making it even harder for New Orleans to execute its game plan effectively. Conversely, the Hawks should feel comfortable playing in this environment, knowing they have little pressure to perform perfectly due to their status as favorites.