Betting tips from AI for New York Knicks vs Miami Heat, 21 December 2025.

Bookmaker prices New York as a heavy favorite at 1.32, but analysts at Wincomparator peg the Knicks at 67% — a meaningful gap that creates value. A $1 wager on Miami at 3.50 would pay $2.50 if the Heat upset, and using the 67% Knicks projection the expected value on Miami is positive (roughly +$0.16 per $1), so this is the profit-maximizing play.

That said, the Knicks’ form is real: an 8-2 run, home dominance at Madison Square Garden and recent head-to-head sweeps make them the qualitative favorite. Still, the market appears to overprice New York; with the public loading on the Knicks, I’ll take the contrarian, value-driven bite on Miami for long-term profitability.

Madison Square Garden is set to electrify as the New York Knicks host the struggling Miami Heat in an Eastern Conference showdown. All signs point to a dominant performance from the home team, making the Knicks moneyline at 1.32 the savvy play.

The Knicks are on a remarkable run, boasting an impressive 8-2 record over their last 10 games. Their form is undeniable, reflected in top-tier power ratings and a stellar home record where they've covered the spread in 25 of 34 contests. Analysts at Wincomparator give New York a commanding 67% win probability, a testament to their superior 19-8 record compared to Miami's shaky 15-13 start.

Head-to-head history further solidifies this pick, with the Knicks sweeping their last three meetings, including a decisive 116-95 blowout. Meanwhile, Miami limps into this matchup with a 3-7 skid in their past 10, struggling with poor third-quarter coverage and a disappointing 37 moneyline wins in 85 games overall. Betting trends heavily favor the Knicks at home, cashing in 38 of 59 opportunities. With a projected 106-101 New York victory, the Knicks are poised to extend their dominance.

The Knicks are clearly the smart play in this matchup despite the steep 1.32 moneyline. Their dominant 19-8 record compared to Miami's mediocre 15-13 start tells only part of the story. New York has completely owned the Heat in recent meetings, sweeping their last three encounters including that impressive 116-95 blowout.

The momentum factor heavily favors New York, who enter on an 8-2 heater while Miami limps in on a concerning 3-7 slide. The Knicks' home court advantage at Madison Square Garden is particularly significant – they've covered the spread in 25 of 34 games and won 38 of 59 on the moneyline at home.

Miami's third-quarter struggles and poor overall moneyline performance (just 37 wins in 85 games) further strengthen the case for New York. While the 1.32 odds don't offer tremendous value, the Knicks' consistent performance and clear advantages make them the safer bet over Miami's 3.50 longshot odds.

The Knicks are firing on all cylinders heading into this Eastern Conference showdown at Madison Square Garden, where the crowd's energy often turns the tide. With a stellar 19-8 record this season, New York has been a nightmare for Miami, sweeping their last three head-to-heads—including a gritty 115-107 win in March and a dominant 116-95 blowout. Their recent 8-2 run over the last 10 games showcases top-tier power ratings and home dominance, covering the spread in 25 of 34 outings.

Miami, meanwhile, is stumbling with a 3-7 skid in their past 10, struggling to close quarters and boasting just 37 moneyline wins in 85 games. Analysts peg the Knicks at a 67% win probability, projecting a tight 106-101 victory. At 1.32 on the moneyline, New York's the smart play for bettors eyeing value in a lopsided matchup. This one's got Knicks written all over it—expect the home team to extend their stranglehold.

In this high-stakes Eastern Conference clash, the New York Knicks are heavy favorites to prevail at Madison Square Garden.
Analysts project a 67% win probability for the Knicks, backed by their superior 19-8 record and a red-hot 8-2 run. They've swept the last three head-to-heads, including a 116-95 blowout, showcasing dominance.
Miami struggles with a 3-7 skid and poor third-quarter coverage, making them vulnerable on the road.
With odds at 1.32 for New York and 3.50 for Miami, betting trends favor the Knicks moneyline at home, where they've cashed in 38 of 59 games. Expect a tight 106-101 victory for the hosts.

The New York Knicks enter this matchup as heavy favorites with odds of 1.32, and for good reason. Their recent form has been stellar, boasting an impressive 8-2 record over their last 10 games. This contrasts sharply with Miami's struggles, as the Heat have limped to a 3-7 mark in the same span. The Knicks' dominance at Madison Square Garden adds another layer of confidence; they've covered the spread in 25 of their 34 home games, leveraging the energy of one of the NBA's most intimidating venues.

Head-to-head trends further tilt the scales in New York's favor. They've swept the last three meetings against Miami, including two double-digit victories. Analysts project a tight contest with a predicted scoreline of 106-101, but even such narrow margins reflect New York's consistency. The Heat, meanwhile, have shown vulnerabilities, particularly in the third quarter where they've failed to cover spreads reliably—a potential Achilles' heel in this clash.

From a betting perspective, the Knicks' moneyline offers little value at 1.32, but their reliability makes them a safer pick than Miami at 3.50. With analysts giving New York a 67% win probability and their superior record against Eastern Conference opponents, backing the Knicks aligns with both logic and momentum.