Betting tips from AI for New Zealand vs West Indies, 22 November 2025.

This matchup sets up as a value-backed favorite play. The market posts New Zealand at 1.29 against West Indies at 3.70, and the on-field indicators strongly support laying the price with the hosts. New Zealand edged the first ODI by 7 runs at McLean Park and have now won five of their last seven at this venue. That result reflected not luck, but control: the Black Caps dictated phases with the ball and handled pressure moments better, a pattern that typically repeats at Napier.

The venue and personnel point in the same direction. McLean Park often rewards disciplined seam, especially under morning cloud and with the strong coastal breeze, and New Zealand are built to exploit it. A four-pronged pace unit of Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes gives them variation in height, angle, and movement, while Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell lock up the middle with control and matchup spin. That depth made West Indies chase the game in the first ODI and will again make it hard for them to string together 10-over pockets of acceleration without risk.

With the bat, Daryl Mitchell is in the sweet spot: at least 33 in eight of his last nine ODI knocks this year, plus a fresh half-century here. He stabilizes the middle and finishes at better than run-a-ball when set. Around him, Conway and Williamson are elite at strike-rotation on two-paced surfaces, which blunts West Indies’ need for clusters of wickets.

West Indies continue to ride volatility rather than bankable structure. Their top order has struggled to stitch partnerships on this tour, and John Campbell’s return against a high-class new ball at this ground is a tough reintroduction. The visitors have also lost three of four at Napier, mirroring a broader theme: sporadic brilliance without repeatable method in 50-over cricket.

From a betting lens, 1.29 implies roughly a 78% break-even probability. Independent analyst consensus pegs New Zealand closer to 90–94% here given form, matchup, and venue. That gap creates positive expected value on the New Zealand moneyline. On a $1 stake, the profit if they win is about 29 cents; with a 90% true probability, the expected gain sits meaningfully above zero, whereas West Indies at 3.70 requires around 27% to break even and profiles as a sizable negative EV given their realistic win chance.

Risks remain: a wonky toss bias, dew that flattens the pitch for a chase, or one powerplay burst from West Indies. But across conditions, personnel, and recent evidence, the most profitable single outcome to back is New Zealand to win the match.

New Zealand come into this second ODI as prohibitive favorites, and a look at the evidence makes it clear why the odds are so heavily stacked in their favor at 1.29. The Black Caps are not just playing at home; they are playing at a venue, McLean Park in Napier, where they have been dominant, securing victories in five of their last seven outings. This home-ground fortress effect cannot be overstated.

Building on their home advantage is the momentum from a hard-fought 7-run victory in the first ODI. That win wasn't just a number in the series column; it was a psychological blow to a West Indies side that has struggled for consistency throughout this tour. The visitors, priced as long shots at 3.70, have a dismal record at this ground, having lost three of their four previous matches here. Their batting lineup continues to be their Achilles' heel, failing to fire as a cohesive unit and putting immense pressure on their bowlers.

The tactical matchup heavily favors the hosts. New Zealand is unleashing a fearsome four-pronged pace attack featuring Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes. In conditions that traditionally assist seam and swing bowling, this quartet is perfectly equipped to dismantle the fragile West Indies top order. The return of John Campbell for the visitors is unlikely to solve their woes, as he will face an immediate and intense trial by fire. Complementing the pace battery are the ever-reliable spin options of Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell, giving the captain a wealth of options to control the middle overs.

Furthermore, New Zealand's batting has a reliable anchor in Daryl Mitchell. His incredible run of form, scoring 33 or more in eight of his last nine innings, provides the stability needed to build a match-winning total. His half-century in the first ODI at this very venue demonstrates his comfort and adaptability. While the odds of 1.29 offer limited returns, they accurately reflect the overwhelming probability of a New Zealand victory. The West Indies would require a complete reversal of form in all three facets of the game to stand a chance, an outcome that seems highly improbable against such a clinical and well-drilled opponent.

New Zealand enters this second ODI as overwhelming favorites at 1.29 odds, and the recent form suggests this pricing is entirely justified. The Black Caps demonstrated their superiority in the opening match with a narrow 7-run victory, but the margin doesn't tell the full story of their dominance throughout the contest.

The home advantage at McLean Park in Napier cannot be understated, with New Zealand boasting an impressive 5-2 record in their last seven matches at this venue. The conditions clearly favor the hosts, particularly with seam bowling being highly effective on this ground. New Zealand's four-pronged pace attack of Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes represents one of the most formidable bowling units in world cricket, perfectly suited to exploit these conditions.

Daryl Mitchell's exceptional form provides additional confidence in New Zealand's batting strength. His consistency this year, scoring at least 33 runs in 8 of his last 9 innings including four half-centuries and a century, gives the hosts a reliable foundation. His recent half-century at this same venue in the first ODI demonstrates his comfort with local conditions.

The West Indies' struggles are multifaceted and concerning. Their 1-3 record at McLean Park highlights their difficulty adapting to New Zealand conditions. The batting inconsistency that has plagued them throughout this tour shows no signs of improvement, with the unit failing to function as a cohesive whole. John Campbell's return to white-ball cricket after limited recent exposure adds another layer of uncertainty to their already fragile top order.

Expert predictions overwhelmingly favor New Zealand, with some models giving the hosts a staggering 94% win probability. While the West Indies odds of 3.70 might appear tempting for value seekers, the evidence strongly suggests New Zealand's class difference will prove decisive once again.

As a sports betting expert, I'm always on the lookout for value bets that can turn a profit, and this second ODI between New Zealand and West Indies at McLean Park in Napier screams opportunity. With New Zealand listed at 1.29 and West Indies at 3.70, the odds reflect the Black Caps' dominance, but let's dive into why backing the hosts is the smart play here.

First off, New Zealand's recent form is impeccable. They clinched the first ODI by a narrow 7 runs, showcasing their ability to hold their nerve under pressure. Playing at home, they've won 5 of their last 7 matches at this very venue, which gives them a massive edge. The conditions at McLean Park favor seam bowling, and New Zealand's pace attack is stacked with talents like Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes. Add in the spin duo of Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell, and you've got a bowling unit that's tailor-made to exploit West Indies' weaknesses.

Speaking of the visitors, West Indies have been inconsistent, especially in batting. They've lost three of their last four matches at Napier, and their lineup has struggled to gel on this tour. John Campbell's return to white-ball cricket hasn't been smooth, and facing New Zealand's fierce pacers could spell trouble for their openers. Without a cohesive batting performance, it's hard to see them chasing down or setting competitive totals against a side that's firing on all cylinders.

One player who stands out for New Zealand is Daryl Mitchell. This guy's been in red-hot form, scoring at least 33 runs in 8 of his last 9 innings this year, including four half-centuries and a century. He even notched a half-century in the first ODI at this ground, proving he's a reliable anchor in the middle order. With such consistent performers, New Zealand isn't just winning; they're doing it convincingly.

Expert consensus backs this up, with win probabilities for New Zealand hovering around 94%. Betting analysts and fantasy experts are all in on the Black Caps, citing their superior form, home advantage, and bowling depth. For bettors, this means the 1.29 on New Zealand might seem short, but it's a low-risk option for steady gains. If you're betting $1 like in our scenario, it's about building a bankroll through high-probability wins rather than chasing long shots.

That said, West Indies at 3.70 could tempt those looking for an upset, but their track record here doesn't inspire confidence. An injury or two could shift things, but based on current news, it's New Zealand all the way. I'd place my $1 on the hosts to keep the series momentum and deliver another victory, potentially earning a modest but reliable return.

The second ODI between New Zealand and West Indies at McLean Park in Napier is shaping up to be a decisive encounter, with the hosts holding a commanding position. New Zealand's recent 7-run victory in the first match has reinforced their superiority, and their impressive record at this venue—winning 5 of their last 7 games—underscores their comfort and confidence in home conditions. This familiarity with the pitch and atmosphere gives them a psychological edge, crucial in high-stakes limited-overs cricket.

West Indies' tour has been plagued by inconsistency, particularly in their batting lineup. They have failed to fire as a cohesive unit, losing three of their four matches at McLean Park. The return of opener John Campbell, who lacks recent white-ball exposure, adds to their vulnerabilities, especially against New Zealand's disciplined pace attack. Their inability to build substantial partnerships or adapt to seamer-friendly conditions could once again be their undoing.

New Zealand's bowling arsenal is a standout feature, featuring a formidable four-pronged pace attack of Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes. These bowlers excel in exploiting the seam movement typical of Napier, making run-scoring challenging for opponents. With spin options like Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell providing variety, the Black Caps can maintain pressure throughout the innings, restricting scoring opportunities and taking timely wickets.

On the batting front, Daryl Mitchell's exceptional form is a significant boost for New Zealand. He has scored at least 33 runs in 8 of his last 9 innings this year, including four half-centuries and a century, and his recent fifty at this venue in the first ODI highlights his adaptability and consistency. His ability to anchor the innings or accelerate as needed adds depth and reliability to the middle order, reducing the pressure on other batsmen.

Expert consensus heavily favors New Zealand, with win probability estimates around 94%, reflecting their all-round strength and West Indies' struggles. The bookmaker odds of 1.29 for New Zealand indicate they are strong favorites, but given the high likelihood of a win, this bet offers value for bettors seeking steady returns. In contrast, West Indies at 3.70 may appeal for the potential payout, but their erratic performance and poor track record make it a high-risk option with low probability of success.

Considering the comprehensive analysis, betting on New Zealand at 1.29 is a strategic move. Their home advantage, balanced team, and current momentum align with the odds, making it a profitable choice for maximizing earnings in this fixture.

New Zealand enters this match as the overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. Their recent dominance over the West Indies, coupled with their familiarity and success at McLean Park in Napier, makes them a formidable opponent. With odds of 1.29, New Zealand is heavily backed by bookmakers, reflecting their superior form and consistency. The Black Caps have won 5 of their last 7 matches at this venue, and their comprehensive victory in the first ODI by 7 runs further underscores their ability to capitalize on home advantage. This series has already showcased their resilience under pressure, particularly in tight run chases or defensive situations.
Daryl Mitchell’s batting form adds another layer of confidence to New Zealand’s lineup. His consistent performances—scoring at least 33 runs in 8 of his last 9 innings—make him a reliable anchor in the middle order. In the first ODI, Mitchell’s half-century at this very venue demonstrated his adaptability to local conditions. Combined with the explosive potential of openers like Devon Conway and Finn Allen, New Zealand’s batting unit looks well-rounded and capable of posting competitive totals or chasing down targets effectively."The West Indies, meanwhile, have struggled to find cohesion, especially in batting. They have lost three of four matches at McLean Park historically, and their recent performances suggest little improvement. Their opening batsman John Campbell, returning after limited exposure to white-ball cricket, faces a daunting task against New Zealand’s lethal pace attack. The hosts’ bowling arsenal—featuring Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, and Zakary Foulkes—is tailor-made for Napier’s conditions, which traditionally favor seam movement. Additionally, spin options like Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell provide variety and control, ensuring no respite for the opposition.