Betting tips from AI for Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Gonzalo Bueno, 12 January 2026.

I back Nikoloz Basilashvili to win this first-round clash. The market price 1.24 and near‑unanimous models — some putting him roughly a 4‑in‑5 chance to win in straight sets and around 1.20–1.25 to advance — line up with his recent best‑of‑three form: efficient 2–0 wins and a habit of seizing the opening set.

Gonzalo Bueno, listed at 4.25, is a dangerous, fearless qualifier who can stretch matches, but his mixed results and lack of big‑match experience make him the riskier play. A $1 wager on Basilashvili here is a low‑variance, high‑probability bet aimed at steady profit rather than gambler’s upside.

Nikoloz Basilashvili enters this Australian Open clash as the undeniable favorite, with betting analysts and models almost unanimously predicting a comfortable victory. Projections give him close to a 4-in-5 chance to win, aligning with his 1.24 odds. His raw power and extensive bigger-match résumé are expected to overcome Gonzalo Bueno’s steadier baseline game.

Basilashvili's recent form in best-of-three matches has been impressive, highlighted by multiple 2-0 wins and a tendency to secure the opening set, suggesting a relatively short contest. While Bueno, at 4.25, has shown competitiveness across his last 10 matches, often stretching them, and holds a 'puncher's chance' if Basilashvili falters, the Georgian’s established status and efficiency are too significant to ignore. Expect Basilashvili to handle the pressure and advance.

Basilashvili enters as the overwhelming favorite at 1.24, and the consensus among analysts strongly supports this position. His recent efficiency in best-of-three formats, consistently securing early leads and straight-set victories, suggests he'll handle this opening round matchup with relative ease.

Bueno, while showing competitive spirit across his recent matches with an even split of wins and losses, faces a significant step up in competition. The 4.25 underdog odds reflect the gap in experience and firepower between these players.

The contrast in career trajectories is telling – Basilashvili arrives with the burden of expectation while Bueno enters with nothing to lose. This dynamic often favors the established player in early Grand Slam rounds where experience navigating best-of-five formats proves crucial.

While Bueno might stretch some sets if Basilashvili starts cold, the Georgian's superior power hitting should ultimately break down the steadier but less explosive game of his opponent. The value clearly sits with Basilashvili to advance.

In the Australian Open men's draw, Nikoloz Basilashvili faces qualifier Gonzalo Bueno in a matchup that screams experience versus youthful grit on Melbourne's hard courts. Basilashvili, the seasoned Georgian with a powerful baseline game, enters as the heavy favorite at 1.24, and for good reason—recent previews paint him as a 4-in-5 shot to cruise in straight sets, leveraging his efficiency in best-of-three encounters where he's notched multiple 2-0 wins, often seizing the opener.

Bueno, at 4.25, brings a fearless underdog vibe, his mixed recent form showing competitiveness in stretching matches across his last 10 outings. Yet, the career chasm looms large: Basilashvili's big-match résumé and raw power should dismantle Bueno's steadier play, especially under the pressure of a major stage where the qualifier has little to lose but plenty to prove.

This feels like a classic trap for bettors eyeing value on the longshot, but the models and tipsters are unanimous—Basilashvili's poise turns the tide. Betting the $1 on him to advance maximizes profit potential in a lopsided affair likely to wrap quickly.

Basilashvili is a heavy favorite, with analysts giving him close to an 80% chance to win, as seen in the odds of 1.24. His recent form shows efficiency in best-of-three matches, with multiple straight-set wins, fueled by raw power and bigger-match experience.

Bueno is framed as a dangerous underdog with a steady baseline game, capable of stretching matches if the favorite starts slowly. However, Basilashvili's pressure-handling on a big stage like the Australian Open should break down Bueno's resistance.

For profitability, Basilashvili's odds offer a low-risk return, making him the smart bet to advance comfortably.

Nikoloz Basilashvili enters this Australian Open clash as a heavy favorite, with odds of 1.24 reflecting his status as the more accomplished and powerful player. His recent form in best-of-three formats has been solid, marked by efficient straight-set victories that underscore his ability to dominate when firing on all cylinders. Analysts have framed this matchup as a classic contrast between Basilashvili’s raw aggression and Gonzalo Bueno’s steadier baseline game. While Bueno has shown flashes of competitiveness, splitting his last 10 matches evenly, he faces an uphill battle against a player who thrives under pressure in bigger tournaments.

Bueno’s odds of 4.25 suggest he’s far from a sure bet, but there’s intrigue in his profile as a qualifier with little to lose. However, Basilashvili’s experience on hard courts and his tendency to start strong could prove decisive. Previews highlight his edge in power and match IQ, which should allow him to break down Bueno over time. The Georgian star’s serve and forehand are weapons that can overwhelm opponents quickly, making it unlikely Bueno can sustain prolonged resistance.

While Bueno might stretch points and make the match competitive early, Basilashvili’s consistency and mental fortitude in high-stakes scenarios give him the upper hand. A straight-sets victory seems probable for the favorite, aligning with the projections tipping him at nearly a 4-in-5 chance to advance. Betting on Basilashvili here leverages both his statistical favoritism and the relatively low risk tied to his dominance.